2. As energy transition takes off, access to new competitive
clean-energy alternatives will accelerate. Businesses and
governments that want to capitalize on the opportunities will need
to navigate a rapidly changing energy landscape shaped by four key
dimensions: Energy security Providing safe and reliable supply of
energy to all, including the poorest Energy costs Enabling
acceptable energy costs to foster economic growth Social acceptance
Deploying energy solutions that are accepted by the civil society
Climate change Developing sustainable low carbon solutions suitable
in a carbon constrained world Source: A.T. Kearney Energy
Transition Institute
3. 1. Decoupling greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth
is improving at only 1% per year. Securing economic growth and
energy efficiency will require innovative new approaches. 1960
Notes: GDP in constant USD2014; Energy refers to total primary
energy demand; CO2 refers to energy-related CO2 emissions Source:
BP (2015) Statistical review; World Bank (2015) GDP data;
A.T.Kearney Energy Transition Institute 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 1970
Global Primary Energy Consumption per GDP kgofoilequivalent/GDP$
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 0.9%
4. 2. Energy use has a major impact on our climate accounting
for two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.1
Forward-thinking businesses and governments are investing in
solutions that use less energy, reduce costs, and make it easier
for consumers to make the transition. 2/3 Remaining 1/3 from
forestry/agriculture/waste (25%) and other industrial emissions
(9%) Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Highlights
2016; A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute 1 Including CO2
(90%), CH4 (9%), N2O (1%)
5. 3. Switching from coal to gas could reduce the worlds CO2
emissions by 20% With more than 200 years of gas reserves,
utilities and oil and gas companies have a wealth of growth
opportunities. Natural gas supply (years) 233 Technically
recoverable resources 58 Proved reserves (according to OPEC) 20
Proved reserves (according to RYSTAD) 1 Annual production Sources:
IEA, World Energy Outlook 2013; OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin
2014, Rystad Energy; A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute
6. 4. Carbon capture and storage is essential to keep global
warming from rising above the 2C threshold, but it requires robust
carbon pricing mechanisms or direct public financial support to
compensate for the immediate high upfront investments that are
needed. CO2 Source: A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute
7. 5. With major automakers introducing new models, the global
fleet of electric vehicles could see massive growth. However, this
will still only be about 10 percent of the worlds vehicles.
Improving fuel engine efficiency will remain a priority for our
climate for years to come. 2015 2030 140 million+1 million Sources:
EA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 (2DS scenario); A.T. Kearney
Energy Transition Institute
8. 6. Onshore wind and solar PV are the cheapest electricity
sources in favorable locations, offering attractive investment
opportunities and accelerating the energy transition. 2017
Production costs/kWh 1970s Sources: IRENA (2015), Renewable Power
Generation Costs in 2014; A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute
Note: kWh is kilowatt hour.
9. 7. Up to 20% of electricity is lost during transmission and
distribution. Smart-grid technologies can recover most of these
losses and reduce CO2 emissions by up to 4 percent in the next 10
to 15 years. Gener- ation Trans- mission Distri- bution Consump-
tion Sources: The World Bank, "Electric power transmission and
distribution losses, 2011 dataset"; IEA (2012), ETP 2012; A.T.
Kearney Energy Transition Institute
10. 8. The global energy transition is being led by new
technologies and drastic drops in the cost of electricity storage
needed to cope with fluctu- ations in renewable power generation.
With the exception of pumped-storage hydroelectricity, electricity
storage is at an embryonic stage. Current split of electricity
storage 98% Pumped hydro storage 0.7% battery storage 1.3% other1
Sources: BNEF database (November 2015); IRENA database (November
2015); A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute 1 Includes thermal;
flywheel, hydrogen, and CAES (compressed air energy systems)
11. 9. The energy industry uses 15% of the worlds supply of
fresh water. Meanwhile, two-thirds of the worlds population faces a
water shortage. Solar and wind power improves energy security while
also alleviating the water shortage in water- stressed regions.
Sources: IEA (2012), World Energy Outlook 2012 Chapter 17 Water for
Energy; A.T. Kearney Energy Transition Institute Note: calculated
using mean data from Meldrum, et al. (2013)
12. 10. If we used all of the worlds coal, oil, and gas
reserves, we would exceed the CO2 threshold to limit global warming
below 2C three times over. Forward-thinking oil and gas companies
are already considering ways to optimize their portfolios to avoid
stranded assets and are pursuing opportunities in gas and renewable
energy. Sources: IPCC (2015) AR5, Synthesis Report; A.T. Kearney
Energy Transition Institute 1,900 GtCO2 C02 emitted (18702011)
1,000 GtCO2 C02 budget remaining in the 21st century
13. The A.T.Kearney Energy Transition Institute is a nonprofit
organization. It provides leading insights on global trends in
energy transition, technologies, and strategic implications for
private sector businesses and public sector institutions. The
Institute is dedicated to combining objective technological
insights with economical perspectives to define the consequences
and opportunities for decision makers in a rapidly changing energy
landscape. The independence of the Institute fosters unbiased
primary insights and the ability to co-create new ideas with
interested sponsors and relevant stakeholders. For more insights on
global trends in energy transition, technologies, and strategic
implications for your business or institution, please visit our
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