European Energy Transition: Pathway to Net – Zero by 2050

Roghayeh AlGhaithi 1 and Niall Mac Dowell 1,2

1 Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London2 Center for Process Systems Engineering, Imperial College London

1

1990 – 1999 2000 – 2010 2010 – 20201979 • WMO

1988 • UNEP & WMO

19921995

19971998

20032006

20072008

20152017

2019

• UNFCCC• IPCC

• Kyoto Protocol• GRI

• WRI & WBCSD

• WWF• ISO

• MITECO• OCCC

• Paris Agreement

• WWF• Carbon Trust

2009 • UN – partnership for learning on climate change

• UN –COP 25, emphasis to meet Paris Agreement

EU Emission Trading Scheme

2020 Climate and energy

package

2030 framework for climate and energy policies

2019201420092003European Green

Deal

EU

Background1

2

2019• Net-Zero Emissions by

2050

• Interconnected Europe

• 2030 goal: 50% – 55% reduction compared to 1990 levels

Background1

2

Key Question

How will the EU transition towards carbon neutrality by 2050?

Background1

4

2009

• 20% emissions reduction in comparison to 1990

Background1

2020 Climate and Energy Package

6

Current Status

Background1

emissions

7

Background1

Current Status energy mix

8

EU Emission Trading Scheme

2020 Climate and energy

package

2030 framework for climate and energy policies

2019201420092003European Green

Deal

EU

Literature2

0

5

10

15

20

25

% In

crea

se o

f Pub

licat

ions

9

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually• Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered• Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used• Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered• Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered• Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point• Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered• 3rd countries are not included (EU states are connected to)

Literature2

10

Common Literature Gaps:• Countries are modeled individually • Contributions of interconnections towards the grid are not

considered • Old EU goal of 80% – 95% CO2 reduction by 2050 is used • Dispatchability, seasonal storage and power to gas are not

considered • Country level policies are not considered • Models consider 2015 as a reference point • Grid constraints are not considered • 3rd countries are not included that EU states are connected to

Literature2

10

Research Plan2

Tool:

• ESO_X

• ESONE

11

Research Plan2

• ESO_X

• ESONE Interconnected

Europe

Country level data check step

ESONE UK

Tool:

16

Research Plan2

• ESONE

Tool:

17

• Interconnection cables • Countries treated as nodes

Sectors:

• Electricity

• Industry

Research Plan2

13

Current Progress & Plans 4

ESO_X:

19

• Input Data:– Updated hub gas

prices – Aggregated

Decommissioning– Grid Constraints – Historical Build

Rates

Current Progress & Plans 4

ESO_X:

20

• CCS and NETs:play an important rolein most countries

• Transition:depends on the resources available

• Challenge:data collection

Research Plan2

• ESO_X

• ESONE Interconnected

Europe

Country level data check step

ESONE UK

Tool:

16

ESONE_UK:

21

• Data Aggregation

ESONE_EU:

• Update Code (ESO_X)

Current Progress & Plans 4

ESONE_UK:

21

•

ESONE_EU:

• Update Code (ESO_X)

• Decommissioning Schedule

• New Technologies

• Transmission losses inclusion with system demand • Self discharge rate for storage technologies

Current Progress & Plans 4

ESONE_UK:

21

• Data disaggregation

ESONE_EU:

•

• System Demand (R-Code)• Fuel Prices • Imported Electricity Prices

(R-Code)• System Inertia • Unit Size • Build Rate • Transmission Losses

Current Progress & Plans 4

ESONE:

21

• Case Study:Northern Sea and

Baltic Sea countries

Current Progress & Plans 4

16

• Observation:– More CCS and NETs

– NL burns gas and UK offsets

cheap NG prices in NL

Carbon Target

S. InertiaNational level

Current Progress & Plans 4

16

Current Progress & Plans 4

ESONE_EUpy: output sample

• Imported Electricity • Carbon Intensity

In Summary5

• European Green Deal: net-zero by 2050 Path needs to be identified

• It is necessary to address literature gaps

• Fuel prices play a role in the introduction of CCS and NETs

• Addressing these gaps will aid in properly answering the question:How the EU should transition towards net-zero by 2050

16

Next5

16

• Add the rest of EU member states

• Introduce national level policies

• Examine multi-objective optimization