Efficiency gains through transport transitions:

Perspectives of international experts

Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering, Alaric McCarthy

University of Otago

NERI Energy Conference 20-21 March 2014

Photo: Dave Pearce

Why is change needed?

Inefficiency

• Energy use per capita for road transport is 20% above OECD average

• High proportion of private car use

• High energy use per tonne-km in freight

• Depressing productivity

Emissions

• Particulate emissions

• GHG emissions from road transport

Transport-related emissions

John Williams: Compiled from MBIE Energy Use data file

NZ’s energy-related greenhouse gas emissions 2011

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Based on data for 2011 from Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, “Energy Greenhouse Emissions 2012 Calendar year Edition” (2013) and Ministry of Economic Development, “New Zealand Energy Data File” (2012).

Drivers of change in transport – global factors

1. What is happening globally that might shape NZ’s future transport?

2. How NZ could respond to / take advantage of these opportunities?

Research process

Delphi: An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics

Panel of invited experts: (all international but 3)

Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1).

Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour

Inefficient mobility

Efficient mobility

Personal mobility

Mobility largely reliant on inefficient private cars run on fossil fuels

Mobility largely reliant on private cars but more efficient use of fossil fuels

Mobility with low use of private cars

Mobility largely reliant on private cars using non-fossil fuels

Personal mobility

Private cars,

inefficient use of

fossil fuels

Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels

low use of private

cars

Private cars, non-fossil fuels

Personal mobility of the future?

Private cars,

inefficient use of

fossil fuels

Private cars, non-fossil fuels

Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels

Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels

Private cars, non-fossil fuels

Private cars, efficient use of fossil fuels Private

cars, inefficient

use of fossil fuels

Private cars, non-fossil fuels

Mobility with low use of private cars

low use of private

cars

It’s complicated!

System Dynamics modelling - showing systemic basis of priority given to private vehicles

Potential shocks Likelihood of occurring within 10 years

1 = low, 5 = high Po

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4 5 1

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5

D

F

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K

High – High: A: Political instability in oil-rich countries B: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologies C: Surge in public and political concern about climate change

High likelihood of occurring within 10 yrs: Low potential to transform D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countries E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected

High potential to transform Low likelihood of occurring in 10 yrs: F: Global price on carbon G: Acute resource scarcity H: Significant global economic decline

E

Low - Low: I: Political instability in China and/or India J: Readily available oil sources found K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion

A

B

C

Change Trends

Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years

1 = low, 5 = high

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2 3

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1

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4

5

G

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K

High – High: A : Increasing investment in public transport B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies C: Increasing public environmental concern D: Uptake of efficient cars E: Uptake of electric vehicles F: Uptake of active transport

High likelihood of becoming widespread Low potential to transform I: Decreasing youth car ownership J: Uptake of shared personal transport K: Decreasing youth car licensing

High potential to transform Low likelihood of becoming widespread: G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles H: Substantial reduction in VKT

B

D

E A C

F H

Material culture

Practices Norms

Transport Culture

Changing transport cultures

Do

Have

Think

Changes in material culture…

Material culture

Practices Norms

Changes in practices…

Material culture

Practices Norms

Changes in norms…

Material culture

Practices Norms

Material culture

Practices Norms

Transition

Material culture

Practices Norms

Next step ... NZ Delphi

How might NZ respond to these circumstances? What could NZ’s future transport system look like?

With many thanks to our funders...