Side event – COP 23, Bonn, November 2017

“The World in 2050 (TWI2050) Side Event: Reframing the Climate Debate:

Enhancing the Paris Agreement and SDG Linkages”

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Impacts of the Paris Agreements

on Sustainable Development Goals

Prof. Carlo Carraro

University of Venice and FEEM

Vice Chair, IPCC WG III

with Francesco Bosello and Lorenza Campagnolo

Outline

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• Indicators to capture SDGs

• The Aggregate Sustainable Development Index (ASDI)

• A model to project SDGs into the future

• Scenario analysis: the effects of implementing the

NDCs on sustainability

Sustainability assessment in 2030

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• Our modelling framework aims at offering a comprehensive assessment of

current well-being and future sustainability based upon 27 indicators

representing 16 of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals

• Model based indicators take interactions into account and allow projections

and scenario analysis

Indicators

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UN SDG APPS Indicator

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a

day (PPP2005) (% of population)

Prevalence of undernourishment (%

of population)

Physician density (per 1,000 people)

Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at

birth (years)

Youth literacy rate (% of population

15-24 years)

n/a

Annual freshwater withdrawals, total (% of internal renewable water)

Access to electricity (% of total population)

Renewable electricity (% in total

electricity output)

Primary energy intensity (MJ /

$PPP2011)

UN SDG APPS Indicator

GDP per capita annual growth (%)

GDP per person employed ($PPP2011)

Employment-to-population ratio (%)

Manufacturing value added (% of

GDP)

Total energy and industry-related

GHG emissions over sectoral value added (t of CO2e / $PPP2011)

Research and Development (R&D)

expenditure (% of GDP)

Palma ratio

CO2 intensity of residential and

transport sectors (t of CO2 / t of oil

equivalent energy use)

Material productivity ($PPP2011/ kg)

UN SDG APPS Indicator

Net GHG emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU)

sectors per square metre of forest and

agricultural land (t of CO2e / sq. m)

Compliance to Conditional INDCs*

Gap from equitable and sustainable

GHG emissions per capita in 2030 (t

CO2eq) **

Marine protected areas (% of

territorial waters)

Terrestrial protected areas (% of total

land area)

Forest area (% of land area)

Endangered and vulnerable (animals

and plants) species (% of total

species)

Corruption Perception Index

Central government gross debt (% of GDP)

ASD ASD ASD

The ICES model

• The ICES model is a recursive-dynamic General Equilibrium model

stylized behavior for economic agents

markets are interconnected within each country by input-output relationships and across countries by international trade

accumulation of physical capital stock, international and government debt connects intertemporally the sequence of static equilibria

Detailed representation of public sector

• Medium term analysis: 2030

• 45 countries/macro regions

• 22 sectors

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7 indicators result from independent out-of-sample estimationscombining the coefficients from panel regressions on historical datawith the ICES model projections of explanatory variables.

The main drivers for these indicators are:

Poverty prevalence : GDPPPP per capita and Palma ratio

Prevalence of undernourishment: GDPPPP per capita, Palma ratio, urban population, agricultural production per capita

Physician density: health expenditure per capita and private health expenditure share

Healthy life expectancy: physician density, education expenditure per capita, undernourishment prevalence and electricity access

Literacy rate: public education expenditure per capita

Electricity access: GDPPPP per capita, electricity output, urbanisation and Palma ratio

Palma ratio: sectoral VA, public education expenditure share, unemployment and corruption control

Empirically estimated indicators

Benchmarking and normalization

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• In order to compare countries’ performance in different SDG indicatorsand to compute some aggregate measures, it is necessary to bring allindicators to a common measurement unit

• The normalization procedure converts all indicator values into the interval[0,1] using a step function

• Benchmarking normalization: SDG targets or best practices are used asbenchmarks

Benchmarks

Indicator Type Lower bound Upper bound

ECONOMY

GDP per capita growth (%) a 0 7

GDP per person employed ($PPP2011) a 5000 50000

Public debt as share of GDP (%) b 70 20

Employment-to-population ratio (%) a 40 80

Manufacturing value added (MVA) as percent of GDP (%) a 5 15

Gross domestic expenditure on R&D as share of GDP (%) a 0.5 3

SOCIETY

Population below $1.90 (PPP) per day (%) b 40 0

Population undernourished (%) b 20 5

Physician density (per 1000 population) a 2 3

Healthy Life Expectancy (HALE) at birth (years) a 54 68

Literacy rate of 15-24 years old, both sexes (%) a 85 100

Access to electricity (% of total population) a 40 100

Palma ratio b 2 1.2

Corruption Perception Index a 2.7 8

ENVIRONMENT

Proportion of total water resources used (%) b 30 5

Share of electricity from renewables (%) b 5 60

Rate of primary energy intensity (Mtoe/million$PPP11) b 10 3

Total energy and industry-related GHG emissions over value added (kgCO2/$PPP11) b 2 1

CO2 intensity of residential and transport sectors over energy volumes(t of CO2 / toe) b 2.5 0.5

Net GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector over total surface (t of CO2e / sq. km) b 100 0

Gap from equitable and sustainable GHG emissions per capita (t CO2eq) b 15 0

Proportion of terrestrial protected areas (%) a 10 50

Proportion of marine protected areas (%) a 5 20

Forest area (%) a 5 60

Share of endangered and vulnerable (animals & plants) species (% of total species) b 20 5

Direct Material Consumption over GDP (%) a 0.5 2

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Aggregate sustainability using the ASD Index

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Ranking 2015 Country2015 ASD

Index

2015

Economy 2015 Society

2015

Environment

Ranking

2015Country

2015 ASD

Index

2015

Economy 2015 Society

2015

Environment

1 Sweden 85.3 75.7 99.9 77.3 24 RoLACA 54.4 46.7 54.2 65.5

2 Germany 74.1 61.4 99.7 65.9 25 RoW 52.6 51.4 75.6 30.0

3 Finland 73.3 58.7 100.0 56.2 26 Greece 52.4 28.3 87.8 40.0

4 NewZealand 70.9 65.0 92.9 48.1 27 Mexico 51.8 40.7 62.6 50.9

5 France 70.1 44.5 97.4 55.6 28 Indonesia 50.9 41.4 56.7 54.8

6 RoEU 69.5 50.9 93.2 60.6 29 Turkey 49.8 40.0 69.5 43.5

7 UK 69.2 46.3 91.8 54.9 30 Peru 49.5 40.7 52.8 64.5

8 Australia 69.0 64.6 98.3 31.5 31 RoMENA 48.1 53.4 58.8 39.2

9 Canada 66.9 61.1 88.0 44.4 32 Bolivia 47.3 57.5 38.8 59.2

10 RoEurope 66.0 41.9 86.6 61.6 33 Ghana 43.3 22.1 35.5 60.3

11 Benelux 66.0 46.5 99.9 44.6 34 China 42.7 53.9 59.9 26.9

12 Japan 65.9 58.2 88.9 58.7 35 Egypt 41.8 28.4 62.9 39.1

13 Russia 63.0 65.0 67.9 52.8 36 Nigeria 41.7 30.0 21.7 56.2

14 Czech_Rep 62.8 52.6 92.5 53.4 37 RoAsia 39.8 33.7 41.2 50.4

15 SouthKorea 62.8 73.0 81.6 50.9 38 Bangladesh 39.6 41.5 35.7 48.6

16 Poland 62.6 46.6 83.2 55.3 39 SouthAfrica 39.5 43.6 45.4 27.0

17 Italy 62.5 40.4 91.0 51.6 40 India 34.5 52.6 25.3 41.2

18 Brazil 59.9 45.8 60.7 66.3 41 Mozambique 34.3 34.4 2.8 61.1

19 Venezuela 59.8 50.8 57.2 72.4 42 Ethiopia 34.1 33.2 23.6 41.5

20 Chile 59.7 53.5 72.9 52.9 43 RoAfrica 30.8 22.8 5.1 60.5

21 USA 58.7 56.8 82.6 35.1 44 Kenya 29.2 32.0 4.5 54.3

22 Argentina 57.3 53.7 75.3 48.8 45 Uganda 28.6 21.1 5.3 55.3

23 Spain 55.3 44.7 92.5 37.4

Sustainability in 2015: ASD Index and pillars

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-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

APPSIndex

SDG1

SDG2

SDG3

SDG4

SDG6

SDG7

SDG8

SDG9SDG10

SDG11

SDG12

SDG13

SDG14

SDG15

SDG16

SDG17

Sweden Germany

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

APPSIndex

SDG1

SDG2

SDG3

SDG4

SDG6

SDG7

SDG8

SDG9SDG10

SDG11

SDG12

SDG13

SDG14

SDG15

SDG16

SDG17

Kenya Uganda

Sustainability: top and bottom performers

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Ranking 2030

CountriesASD Index

2030∆ Ranking

ASD Index 2015

Ranking 2015

Ranking 2030

CountriesASD Index

2030∆ Ranking

ASD Index 2015

Ranking 2015

1 Sweden 85.4 0 85.3 1 24 Spain 56.8 -1 55.3 23

2 Finland 74.7 1 73.3 3 25 RoLACA 56.3 -1 54.4 24

3 NewZealand 72.5 1 70.9 4 26 Greece 55.6 0 52.4 26

4 Germany 72.4 -2 74.1 2 27 RoMENA 54.0 4 48.1 31

5 Australia 71.6 3 69.0 8 28 Peru 53.9 2 49.5 30

6 Canada 71.3 3 66.9 9 29 Bolivia 53.2 3 47.3 32

7 UK 70.8 0 69.2 7 30 Turkey 53.1 -1 49.8 29

8 RoEU 69.7 -2 69.5 6 31 Egypt 52.9 4 41.8 35

9 France 69.3 -4 70.1 5 32 Mexico 52.5 -5 51.8 27

10 RoEurope 68.7 0 66.0 10 33 RoW 52.5 -8 52.6 25

11 Benelux 67.2 0 66.0 11 34 Bangladesh 52.4 4 39.6 38

12 Japan 65.0 0 65.9 12 35 Ghana 50.2 -2 43.3 33

13 Russia 64.9 0 63.0 13 36 India 50.0 4 34.5 40

14 Venezuela 63.7 5 59.8 19 37 China 49.0 -3 42.7 34

15 Italy 63.5 2 62.5 17 38 RoAsia 46.0 -1 39.8 37

16 Indonesia 63.2 12 50.9 28 39 SouthAfrica 44.2 0 39.5 39

17 Czech_Rep 63.0 -3 62.8 14 40 Nigeria 44.0 -4 41.7 36

18 Poland 62.4 -2 62.6 16 41 Ethiopia 42.4 1 34.1 42

19 USA 62.1 2 58.7 21 42 RoAfrica 41.1 1 30.8 43

20 Brazil 60.9 -2 59.9 18 43 Uganda 40.4 2 28.6 45

21 Argentina 60.2 1 57.3 22 44 Mozambique 37.1 -3 34.3 41

22 SouthKorea 59.6 -7 62.8 15 45 Kenya 32.2 -1 29.2 44

23 Chile 59.6 -3 59.7 20

Sustainability in 2030 in the SSP2 scenario

SSP2 assumes growth rates for population and per-capita income similar to recent

ones, lower resource and energy intensity, and decreasing fossil fuel dependency. In

this scenario, sustainability slightly increases across the world by 2030

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Germany Uganda

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2015 2030

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2015 2030

Sustainability in 2030 in the SSP2 scenario

Implementing the NDCs

In this scenario, NDCs area assumed to be implemented by 2030:

The EU28 achieves its target through an Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS)

The other countries impose a carbon tax

Internal recycling of the revenues that contribute to national deficit reduction

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CountryConditional

target (%)Target type Country

Conditional

target (%)Target type

Australia -27 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Venezuela -20 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

New Zealand -30 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Rest of Latin America (RoLACA) -20 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Japan -26 Emission reduction wrt 2013 EU28 -40 Emission reduction wrt 1990

South Korea -37 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Rest of Europe (RoEurope) -9 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Bangladesh -15 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Russia -27.5 Emission reduction wrt 1990

China -62.5 Emission intensity reduction wrt 2005 Turkey -21 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

India -34 Emission intensity reduction wrt 2005 Rest of MENA (RoMENA) -9 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Indonesia -41 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Ethiopia -64 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Rest of Asia (RoAsia) -21Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU

scenarioGhana -45 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Canada -30 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Kenya -30 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

USA -27 Emission reduction wrt 2005 Mozambique -8Emission reduction computed from target emission

levels in 2030

Mexico -36 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Nigeria -45 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Argentina -30 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Uganda -22 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Brazil -37 Emission reduction wrt 2005 South Africa -22Emission level target in 2030 is in the range 398 and

614 Mt CO2–eq

Chile -40 Emission intensity reduction wrt 2007 Rest of Africa (RoAfrica) -33 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

Peru -30 Emission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario Rest of the World (RoW) -35 Average mission reduction wrt 2030 BAU scenario

The implementation of conditional Nationally Determined Contributions(NDCs) by 2030 has a positive impacts on SDGs and increases sustainabilityin most countries

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Impacts of NDCs on SDGs

Ranking 2030

NDC_PolicyCountries

ASD Index 2030

NDC_Policy∆ Ranking

ASD Index 2030

baseline

Ranking 2030

baseline

Ranking 2030

NDC_PolicyCountries

ASD Index 2030

NDC_Policy∆ Ranking

ASD Index 2030

baseline

Ranking 2030

baseline

1 Sweden 86.5 0 85.4 1 24 Spain 58.4 0 56.8 24

2 Finland 76.2 0 74.7 2 25 RoLACA 57.7 0 56.3 25

3 NewZealand 75.3 0 72.5 3 26 Greece 56.3 0 55.6 26

4 Australia 74.2 1 71.6 5 27 RoW 56.1 6 52.5 33

5 Canada 74.0 1 71.3 6 28 Peru 55.3 0 53.9 28

6 Germany 73.2 -2 72.4 4 29 Ghana 55.0 6 50.2 35

7 UK 72.7 0 70.8 7 30 Bangladesh 54.8 4 52.4 34

8 RoEU 71.6 0 69.7 8 31 RoMENA 54.7 -4 54.0 27

9 Indonesia 70.4 7 63.2 16 32 Mexico 54.7 0 52.5 32

10 France 70.4 -1 69.3 9 33 Turkey 54.1 -3 53.1 30

11 RoEurope 70.1 -1 68.7 10 34 Egypt 53.0 -3 52.9 31

12 Brazil 70.0 8 60.9 20 35 Nigeria 52.4 5 44.0 40

13 Benelux 68.8 -2 67.2 11 36 Bolivia 51.2 -7 53.2 29

14 Russia 65.9 -1 64.9 13 37 China 50.8 0 49.0 37

15 Czech_Rep 65.7 2 63.0 17 38 India 50.0 -2 50.0 36

16 Japan 65.6 -4 65.0 12 39 SouthAfrica 47.9 0 44.2 39

17 Venezuela 65.0 -3 63.7 14 40 Ethiopia 47.4 1 42.4 41

18 USA 64.9 1 62.1 19 41 RoAsia 46.8 -3 46.0 38

19 Italy 64.5 -4 63.5 15 42 RoAfrica 42.3 0 41.1 42

20 Poland 64.4 -2 62.4 18 43 Uganda 41.1 0 40.4 43

21 Argentina 61.8 0 60.2 21 44 Mozambique 37.3 0 37.1 44

22 SouthKorea 61.6 0 59.6 22 45 Kenya 36.4 0 32.2 45

23 Chile 60.3 0 59.6 23

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USA Canada

Japan

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

-

20

40

60

80

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: USA, Canada and Japan

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France Germany

Italy

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: France, Germany and Italy

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China India

Brazil

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

-

20

40

60

80

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

-

20

40

60

80

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: China, India and Brazil

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Ghana Bolivia

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

- 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

100APPS Index

SDG 1

SDG 2

SDG 3

SDG 4

SDG 6

SDG 7

SDG 8

SDG 9SDG 10

SDG 11

SDG 12

SDG 13

SDG 14

SDG 15

SDG 16

SDG 17

2030 Baseline 2030 NDC_Policy

Impacts of NDCs on SDGs: Ghana and Bolivia

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The Paris Agreement and social indicators: developing countries

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Bangladesh Indonesia RoAsia Ethiopia Ghana Kenya Mozambique Nigeria Uganda RoAfrica

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SDG1 SDG2

SDG3 - HALE SDG4

SDG7 - Ely access SDG10

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Thanks!