Trends 2010 Presented to GVHBA

December 8, 2009

Right Product, Right Time, Right Place What to Prepare for In 2010

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.

Historical Absorption and Trends

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Source of Historical Stats: MPC Intelligence

?



GVHBA Trends 20103

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Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver Average Price Graph January 1977 to November 2009

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Source: Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver



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At Q3 New Multi Family Product Absorption (Condominium & Townhome)

GVHBA Trends 20106

ABBOTSFORDLANGLEY

TRI-CITIES573

NORTH SHORE166

SURREY/ WHITE ROCK

1,233

RICHMOND601

VANCOUVER1,196

BURNABY373

NEW WEST

196

Total Absorption: 4,861 Units

PITT MEADOWS/MAPLE RIDGE164

359


Estimated New Multi Family Product Absorption (Condominium & Townhome)

GVHBA Trends 20107

ABBOTSFORDLANGLEY

TRI-CITIES725

NORTH SHORE180

SURREY/ WHITE ROCK

1,800

RICHMOND800

VANCOUVER1,500

BURNABY550

NEW WEST

225

Estimated 2009 Absorption: 6,600-7,200 Units


675


Estimated Standing Inventory (Condominium)

GVHBA Trends 20108

ABBOTSFORD96

LANGLEY20

TRI-CITIES81

NORTH SHORE67

SURREY/ WHITE ROCK

306

RICHMOND27

VANCOUVER215

BURNABY112

NEW WEST

69

Total Condominium Units Completed and Available for Sale: 1,103 Units



Standing Inventory Remains Low by Historical Standards

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YTD Housing Starts (CMHC)

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Total Housing Starts YTD 2009

Vancouver: 1,379Surrey: 3,333Burnaby : 667Richmond: 669Langley: 596

SF: 164MF: 432

SF: 137MF: 313

SF: 69MF: 207

SF: 1021MF: 1154

SF: 123MF: 546

SF: 402MF: 977

SF: 151MF: 516

SF: 216MF: 207

SF: 37MF: 164

SF: 103MF: 115

SF: 69MF: 127

SF: 72MF: 8


Submarket Specific Housing Starts YTD (CMHC)

GVHBA Trends 201011

SF: 161MF: 432

SF: 137MF: 313

SF: 1021MF: 1154

Langley – Historically low S.F. starts in relation to multi-family

Tri Cities & Surrey - A relatively high number of S.F. to multi-family starts


2006 to 2016 Estimated Population Growth Per Year (BC Stats)

GVHBA Trends 201012

Estimated Pop. Growth/Year

Surrey: 10,242Vancouver: 8,007Tri Cities: 5,635

10,242

1,237

5,635

4,4688,007

3,102

1,295

1,773

3,2703,161


Change in Values Year over Year

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Downtown South / Yaletown Values

2007 - 2008 2009 Trend

Concrete Presale Values $800 - $870 / sq.ft. $540 - $615 / sq.ft. Decrease of 20 - 25%

Resale Values almost back at peak levels


Change in Values Year over Year

GVHBA Trends 201014

South Main Values 2007 - 2008 2009 Trend

Concrete Presale Values $600 - $650 / sq.ft. $465 - $530 / sq.ft. Decrease of 15 – 20%

Resale Values almost back at peak levels


Construction Volumes Will Slow

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Year over Year % Change in Housing Starts YTD By Submarket (CMHC)

GVHBA Trends 201016

Overall Metro Vancouver housing starts down 64% (Jan – Sept) year over year. (CMHC)

Total housing starts Jan – Nov in Metro Vancouver: 7200 (CMHC)

-81%-9%

0%

-83%

-78% -49%

-67%

-66%

-72%

-59%

57%

-50%

-41%


Monthly Mortgage Payment based on Current Benchmark Price – 25% down, 3.99% rate compounded semi-annually, 5 year term, 25 year amortization

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SF: $1,658TH: $1,058CO: $810

SF: $1,978SF: $1,958TH: $1,226CO: $931

SF: $1,677TH: $1,183CO: $966

TRI-CITIES

SF: $3,429CO: $1,490

SURREY

SF: $2,985TH: $1,857CO: $1,251

VANCOUVER

SF: $2,968TH: $1,818CO: $1,330

WHITE ROCK

SF: $1,918TH: $1,183

CO: $1,117



GVHBA Trends 201018

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Forecast: The steady maintenance of activity and sales – affordability driven de-mand with normalized moderation through the winter




GVHBA Trends 201019

SURREY

WHITE ROCK

North Surrey Newton / Fleetwood South Surrey / WR

SF: $ 1,826 SF: $ 1,976 SF: $ 2,797

TH: $ 1,083 TH: $ 1,233 TH: $ 1,726

CO: $ 929 CO: $ 1,248



GVHBA Trends 201020

Westside Eastside

SF: $5,708 SF: $ 2,751 CO: $1,896 TH: $ 1,961

CO: $ 1,251

VANCOUVER



GVHBA Trends 201021

TRI-CITIES

Port Moody Port Coquitlam Coquitlam

SF: $2,818 SF: $2,105 SF: $2,503

TH: $1,561 TH: $1,505 TH: $1,620

CO: $1,144 CO: $ 974 CO: $1,110


Household Growth vs. Housing Starts

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1987

1988

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F

2010

F0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Housing StartsHousehold GrowthS

tart

s

Source: BC Stats, CMHC Forecast


Average Housing Starts from 2005-2008Source: CMHC

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1,183

2,033

640

4,900

1,942

4,513 2,167941

390


2006 to 2016 Estimated Demand for New Housing (Rental and Ownership) per Year(Metro Vancouver Regional Growth Strategy)

GVHBA Trends 201024

1,150

1,850

400

3,330

1,050

1,790 1,500505

390

© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.GVHBA Trends 201025

Market

2006 - 2016 Population and Housing Demand Projections by BC Stats & Metro

Vancouver

Housing Starts

Potential Overbuilding

Total Demand

Ownership Demand

Population Growth Per

Year

Total Demand Per Year

Ownership Demand Per

Year

Rental Demand Per Year

2005-2008 Average

Negative indicates under building / Positive indicates

overbuilding

Burnaby 4,468 2,300 1,500 800 2,167 -133 667

Delta 260 550 360 190 215 -335 -145

Langley 3,161 1,770 1,150 620 1,183 -588 33

Maple Ridge / Pitt Meadows 1,773 775 505 270 941 166 436

New West 1,295 600 390 210 689 89 299

North Vancouver 1,237 615 400 215 640 25 240

Richmond 3,102 1,620 1,050 570 1,942 322 892

Surrey 10,242 5,125 3,330 1,795 4,900 -225 1,570

Tri Cities 5,635 2,825 1,850 975 2,033 -792 183

Vancouver 8,007 2,750 1,790 960 4,513 1,763 2,723

West Vancouver 379 70 45 25 200 130 155

Metro Vancouver 39,558 19,000 12,370 6,630 19,423 423 7,053



GVHBA Trends 201026

SF: $1,658TH: $1,058CO: $810

SF: $1,978SF: $1,958TH: $1,226CO: $931

SF: $1,677TH: $1,183CO: $966

TRI-CITIES

SF: $3,429CO: $1,490

SURREY

SF: $2,985TH: $1,857CO: $1,251

VANCOUVER

SF: $2,968TH: $1,818CO: $1,330

WHITE ROCK

SF: $1,918TH: $1,183

CO: $1,117



GVHBA Trends 201027

Q1

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Forecast: The steady maintenance of activity and sales – affordability driven de-mand with normalized moderation through the winter


28 GVHBA Trends 2010