Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Damien Helly, Deputy Head of Programme, EU External Action, ECDPM
Too nice to fail? EU external action towards
AfricaMinistry of Foreign Affairs, Vienna,
7 September 2016
1. A few words about ECDPM2. A simple framework to approach a complex topic3. 2008-2014. Continental drift or widening cracks?4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike5. Scenarios for Africa-Europe relations
Content
ECDPM Page 2
1. Think and do tank working on Europe Africa relations and European development policies
2. Funded by 9 European governments3. Around 60 staff4. HQ in Maastricht & office in Brussels5. Regularly on mission in Africa
1. A few words about ECDPM
ECDPM Page 3
1. Key factors to look at in Africa-Europe relations (development policy-making covered under these factors):
a. Economyb. Governance & politicsc. Securityd. Multilateralism
2. Critical juncturese. Africa-EU summitsf. Significant events affecting the 4 key factors above
(conflict, elections, international conference)
2. A simple framework to approach a complex topic
ECDPM Page 4
Confidence and commitments to (re)build
1. Economy2. Governance & politics3. Security4. Multilateralism
3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of widening cracks?
ECDPM Page 5
• Trade trends show decrease of Europe. • FDI concentrated in 12 countries • EPAs didn't really deliver • Chinese investments competition • Growth driven by extractives (Chinese growth) – high
prices of raw materials • food/agricultural products (wheat) creates South-
South tensions• Inclusive growth not seen jointly as priority
• some kind of global opening of African economies
3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of widening cracks? Economy
ECDPM Page 6
• Increased EU interventionism until Chad and then African solutions to African problem
• Common push on APSA for different reasons • Germany string supporter • But failure of prevention: Sudan , but also and
foremost Arab Spring. • And the Sahel: terrorism & organised crime. • SSR-: long lasting efforts in DRC but competition and
no collective political weight.
3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of widening cracks? Security
ECDPM Page 7
• Africans became more self-confident. • Regional hegemons as donor darlings raised
questions: Ethiopia, Nigeria, and then Angola. • Weakening of pan-africanism (including in South
Africa) • Politics in the relation still dominated by large former
colonial powers: West Africa, Zimbabwe, Sudan, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, Mali.
• North Africa: France, Spain, Italy • Schizophrenia in democracy support • ICC became contentious, the LGBT. Cultural goods as
well.
3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of widening cracks? Governance & politics
ECDPM Page 8
• CPA - Cotonou• Paris, Busan principles • MDGs mixed results • R2P • ICC • COP 21yes but 19 & 20 more difficult • EU AU UN triangle failed to deliver in sustainable
funding for security (Product & Obasanjo reports) • Transit phase that last quite long and decreases
engagement from both sides on security ?
3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of widening cracks? Multilateralism
ECDPM Page 9
“Need to rebuild confidence and commitments” at the EU-AU 2014 summit
3. 2008-2014: Continental drift of widening cracks? ECDPM summary
ECDPM Page 10
• Global meltdown • Greek crisis & lengthy EU decisions on financial crisis
undermine its image• Less Chinese growth, imports & investments• Less trade• African resilience to financial shocks • Domestic resource mobilisation debates start,
announcing the return of conditionality • EPAs finally seen as political issue in EU. Deadlines
and some get signed but also perhaps more flexibility? No clear impact yet
4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike - Economy
ECDPM Page 11
• Arab Spring • Somalia • Sudan • Sahel • Ebola• Libya• Terrorism in Africa (an African terrorism?)• Syria• Where is CSDP ? (Nicholas Westcott, EEAS Africa)• And where is the comprehensive approach?
4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike - Security
ECDPM Page 12
• EU unable to influence positively post-Arab springs dynamics (i.e. Egypt)
• Middle Eastern & Arab & islamic conflicts expand into Africa
• Europe’s loss of credibility in its governance of migration flows
• Renewed Barroso Commission followed by Juncker with very realistic ambitions (Growth, jobs & youth) + Mogherini as HR/VP show lack of collective political ambition
• Towards renationalisation of Foreign Policy?
4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike – Governance & politics
ECDPM Page 13
Cracks within continents and the continental drift seem to keep widening
• AU chairperson election & Zuma agenda – few common Africa positions?
• Willingness to decrease Africa Peace Facility contribution to APSA
• Francophone Anglophone divide • French/British burden sharing in Africa continues to
some extent• Sahel shows new EU (but also UN) engagement from
several member States but for various reasons• COP21, SDGs seen as success, but it is all about
implementation.
4. 2014-2016: When the crises strike- multilateralism
ECDPM Page 14
5. Scenarios for the future of Africa-Europe relations
ECDPM Page 15
1. The end of high growth rates in Europe?2. No optimistic scenarios for the size of African
economy (even if diverse) in global economy3. Trade will go on with or without or with slow EPA4. Change in African agriculture will be key to feed
exploding population + adaptation to climate change
5. Africa may rise but unequally – archipelagos of wealth in oceans of poverty
6. Migration push to remain7. Necessity to manage migration, employment in a
more collective way to have impact
5. Scenarios for the future of Africa-Europe relations - Economy
ECDPM Page 16
1. EU strategic scenarios• Generous donor but political dwarf• Normative power & political power• Declining power
10 key factors (from economy to internal politics, balance between large Member States, voting procedures & quality of institutional policy making)
Brexit not good for EU foreign policy and security policy. But cooperation will continue at different levels.Question is how good a lobbyist will the UK be?
5. Scenarios for the future of Africa-Europe relations – Security (1)
ECDPM Page 17
1. African security challenges are numerous and diverse
2. Prevention is necessary and its success are invisible but has to be done
3. Future threats include: • organised crime of all kinds,• urban theatres, • Youth & violence, • virtual & technological spaces for conflict,• terrorism, • maritime but also air contexts (growth of air line
traffic).
5. Scenarios for the future of Africa-Europe relations – Security (2)
ECDPM Page 18
1. Highly unpredictable societies (see Arab Spring, but also Ukraine…)
2. Youth in Africa can bring change quickly3. If European governance standards are lowered down
(violation of Human Rights, undemocratic forces coming to power) -> not encouraging for African activists and risk of dialogues between authoritarian rulers.
5. Scenarios for the future of Africa-Europe relations – governance & politics
ECDPM Page 19
1. Direct coercion in multilateral fora works less well than before…
2. ACP – Cotonou and its limits: debates & ECDPM scenarios
3. Regional integration in Africa also takes different shapes – AU & RECs but not only. Alphabet soups (& Spaghetti bowls)
4. Strong institutions are needed, but too many institutions is not good either
5. Role of ideologies & visions: pan-Africanism, but also pan-Europeanism. (A European 2063 agenda?)
6. If bilateral relations are tense, joint multilateral actions will be more difficult to achieve.
5. Scenarios for the future of Africa-Europe relations – multilateralism
ECDPM Page 20
1. Direct coercion in multilateral fora works less well than before…
2. Regional integration in Africa also takes different shapes
3. Strong institutions are needed, but too many institutions is not good either
4. Role of ideologies & visions: pan-Africanism, but also pan-Europeanism. (A European 2063 agenda?)
5. If bilateral relations are tense, joint multilateral actions will be more difficult to achieve.
Too nice to fail? Towards debate
ECDPM Page 21
• Many reasons (often mixed)• Protect life and liberty (desperation migration/forced
migration due to conflict, war, natural disasters etc.)
• Pursue enhancement of livelihoods and lifestyles (moving out of choice for new lifestyles) ‘economic migration’
Often difficult to identify single reason for moving yet often for seeking employment
Reasons for migration
ECDPM Page 23
Why do we talk about migration and development.... And what do we mean by it?
ECDPM Page 24
Migration Development
ECDPM Page 25
“... Migration is the original strategy for people seeking to escape poverty, mitigate risk, and build a better life. It has been with us since the dawn of mankind, and its economic impact today is massive.“
(Peter Sutherland, UN Special Representative for International Migration)
ECDPM Page 26
Migration
Development
+
-
Social cohesion
Fiscal stress
MDGsEducation
Healthgender
Poverty Reduction
Social impact/ well-
being
Economic• Labour
Market• Inequality
Remittances
ECDPM Page 27
Migration and Development
ECDPM Page 28
Remittances
National Level
• Increase national income (if formally transferred)
• gain creditworthiness
• stabilize national balance of payments accounts
• Rise in inflation
• Aggravation of regional inequalities between receiving and non-receiving areas
• No benefit to long-term growth
Household level
• Afford basic needs (food, education, etc.) – Poverty reduction
• Potentially increase local capital for investment
Negative: • Increase on prices
(of land) etc.
• Food SecurityTo what degree is heightened mobility related to problems of food insecurity? Food security shocks and chronic food insecurity as major motives for migration for income-generating opportunity. For those with less resources may lead to further fragility/insecurity.
• Climate Change – Migration as adaptation strategyChanges in migration patterns can be responses to both extreme weather events and longer-term climate variability and change and migration can also be an effective adaptation strategy. IPCC, UNFCCC increasingly recognize this link
• Peace&SecurityLivelihood strategy in post-conflict societies (Pakistan, Nepal)Pressure on social systems and social cohesion Taking account of ‘returning’ migrants in peace- and statebuilding
Link with development dimensions
ECDPM Page 29
8 Point Plan 1. Protect the human rights of all migrants 2. Reduce the costs of labour migration 3. Eliminate migrant exploitation including human
trafficking 4. Address the plight of stranded migrants5. Improve public perceptions of migrants6. Integrate migration into the development agenda7. Strengthen the migration evidence base8. Enhance migration partnerships and cooperation
UN High Level Dialogue 2013
ECDPM Page 30
International and Post-2015
Goal 8 Sustainable economic growth/ decent work• Promote labour rights and promote safe and secure
working environments of all workers, including migrant workers, particularly women migrants…
Goal 10 Reduce inequality within and among countries• Facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration
and mobility of people, including through implementation of planned and well-managed migration policies
• By 2030, reduce to less than 3% the transaction costs of migrant remittances and eliminate remittance corridors with costs higher than 5%
Post-2015 OWG Text
ECDPM Page 31
International and Post-2015
• separate debate on the Common European Asylum System (CEAS), • responsibility sharing and solidarity among MS
• Fight against irregular migration & “Fortress Europe” without providing safe & legal channels (MS) Exacerbating the situations of irregular migrants
• External dimension of migration and internal management inextricably linked
EU agenda – Internal issues
ECDPM Page 32
European Union
Internal Debate on CEAS
ECDPM Page 33
“Money should not be spent building
the walls in Europe [...] but to dismantle
the walls in countries [of the
South]”
“Equally important is the need to work on
the link between migration and development”
“Legal migration is a fence against illegal
migration ”
• 2006 Migration Policy Framework for AfricaM&D: Brain Drain, Diaspora, Remittances
• Ouagadougou Action Plan to Combat Trafficking of Human Beings
• African Common Position on Migration and Development • “Migration as effective tool for development”
• Post-2015 CAP notes migration and development
• RECsFree labour migration provisions, e.g. EAC Common Market Protocol Article 10 “free movement of workers” – progress but difficult to fully implement; SADC region more restrictive
African Union & RECs
ECDPM Page 34
African Union, RECs
What implications for ECDPM work on migration and development issues?
ECDPM Page 35
Political Climate / Interests /
Political Economy
Page 36ECDPM
European Union
External Policy Agenda
Internal Debate on CEAS
EU MS
African UnionPolicy Agenda
RECs
RECs
RECs RECs
Practice
International and Post-2015
ECDPM
Political Climate / Interests /
Political Economy
Page 37ECDPM
European Union
External Policy Agenda
Internal Debate on CEAS
EU MS
African UnionPolicy Agenda
RECs
RECs
RECs RECs
Practice
International and Post-2015
Future ECDPM work?
Moving agendas
Risks
ECDPM Page 38
• Policy Momentum stays at the global level but no traction nationally
• Topic of migration remains politically sensitive in many countries in South and North
• Funding: • Already Existing
research by ACP- OBS
• Larger scale research (e.g. OECD)
Opportunities• Increased momentum• Integration of migration in
development planning recognised more widely
• In which ECDPM areas do you see scope for future ECDPM engagement in the topic of migration and development?
• What are the opportunities and challenges to look more at the level of practice and feed experiences back to policy level?
• From the perspective of various programmes, where do you see the dimension of migration as being relevant?
Discussion
ECDPM Page 39
Thank youwww.ecdpm.org
www.slideshare.net/ecdpm
Page 40
According to World Bank73 million forced migrants
Forced Migrants (international&national)
ECDPM Page 41
33.3
21.9
16.71.2
Migrants in Mio.
IDPs - conflictIDPs natural disasterRefugeesAsylum Seekers
Many more undocumented?
