Rotary 2015 final 2

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Greater Victoria Transportation Issues and Opportunities

Rotary Club of Victoria February 16, 2015

[email protected]

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Greater Victoria Transportation Issues & Opportunities

Greater Victoria is almostsurrounded by water

Unique

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In addition Greater Victoria has numerous internal transportation barriers

Mount Doug

Thetis Lake

Gorge WaterwayEsquimalt Lagoon

Malahat Mountain

Thetis Lake Park

Langford Lake

Bear Mountain


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The root cause of most traffic congestion and why late afternoon traffic congestion is always worse

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The 2006 volume bar map from the 2014 Regional Transportation Plan

Sooke Rd

Vete

rans

Highway #1

Pat BayHwy

Quadra S

t

Shelbourne

McKenzie

Hillside Ave

Pat Bay & Sayward (fixed)

W Saanich & Viewmont

Wilkinson and Interurban

McKenzie & Burnside

Highway 1 & McKenzie

Highway 1

Island Highway

Douglas & W Saanich

Douglas & Hillside

Bay & Tyee / Wilson

Helmcken & Burnside


HOT SPOTS

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The Bad News :

No one is in charge

The roadways are owned by the 13 different Municipalities and the Province

The only existing “overarching” governance body is the CRD that :

- owns no roadways

- is perceived negatively by the public (water, sewer, bureaucratic)

- does transportation planning based on ideology instead of science


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2003 - Regional Growth Strategy – The focus will be on increasing the use of transit, cycling, and walking.

2005 - Travel Choices – an ideological document asserting that Greater Victoria could attain the same transit market share as Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal.

2014 – The CRD Transportation Plan- Not a transportation plan at all- No identification of congestion points- No alternative congestion solutions- No priority setting- No financial plan- A $250,000+ “dust collector”

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The “double barrelled failure” of CRD (and BC Transit) Transportation Planning

1) The transit market (mode) share target is based on ideology and not science

2) Transit market share has been (predictably) flat for 10 years of studies

% Journey to Work by Public Transit vs City Population Transit Mode (Market) Share vs Year

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The Result :

Completely unnecessary traffic congestion and delays

On-going intrusions of traffic into neighbourhoods

Unnecessary GHG (Green House Gas) emissions


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Exhibit A – The Highway 1 and McKenzie Intersection

Highway #1

McK

enzi

e

Burnside

Mar

igol

d

Helm

cken

Admirals

Burnside

InterUrban

MissingOn-ramp

Neighbourhood Infiltration / Overflow

Carey

Intersection has three major flows instead of twoand it Is far beyond its rated capacity

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30 %Left Turns

Exhibit A – The Highway 1 and McKenzie Intersection

Why the intersection is so congested – 30% of inbound vehicles turn left

The “third flow” conflicts with- Outbound vehicles in the

afternoon rush hour- Backs up to block inbound

lanes in the morning rush hour

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HOV lanes for - Buses - 2 + occupants - All-electric vehicles

This is NOT one of the current Provincial alternatives - but it could avoid problems if an interchange is ever built


. . . . and there should NOT be an interchange at Tillicum

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The Good News

Victoria traffic cannot be increased from the east, west or south

LRT (Light Rail Transit) appears to be dead There never was a Business Case for LRT


1) The LRT Ridership forecasts were inflated by including bus passengers as LRT passengers $ 23,730,000

2) Property Value Uplift values were incorrectly included as a project financial benefit $ 182,130,000

3) Accident benefits were overstated by $ 405,509,800

4) Non-Transit travel time benefits were overstated by $ 402,950,000

5) Vehicle operating benefits were overstated by $ 148,350,000

LRT Benefits were overstated by $1.2 billion

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The $1 billion expenditure would have increased transit market share byless than 1/2 of 1%.

Private Vehicle

78%

Walk10%

Transit6%

Cycle 3%

Other2%

Travel Market Share based on the CRD 2006 OD Survey

0.5 %


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More Bad News

There is no leadership on the need for a Greater Victoria transportation network

There is no acknowledgment that science trumps ideology

There is no governance solution on the horizonand hence no prospect of any optimal solutions

There are no incentives to adopt zero-emission vehicles


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Some Good News


Douglas Street

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Douglas Street Rush Hour Transit Lanes

Bay Street

Hillside Ave

Finlayson

Saanich Rd

Douglas S

t

Cloverdale

Tolmie Ave

Phase 1Fisgard to HillsideSouthbound Transit Lane 6am to 9amNorthbound Transit Lane 3pm to 6pm

Phase 2Hillside to TolmieNorthbound Transit Lane 3pm to 6pm

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The 2006 volume bar map from the 2014 Regional Transportation Plan

Sooke Rd

Vete

rans

Highway #1

Pat BayHwy

Quadra S

t

Shelbourne

McKenzie

Hillside Ave

The Proposed $16 million Westshore Parkway Extension

WestshorePkwy

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Summary

1) Victoria has unique transportation geography requiring a region-widetransportation function

2) No one is in charge of solving transportation problems

3) Planners remain confident that known transportation science has no role in transportation planning

4) Greater Victoria dodged a financially disastrous LRT implementation

5) Mistakes and missteps are being made ($7 million + has been misspent)

6) Transportation congestion and pollution will continue to get worse

7) The broken transportation planning process could be fixed

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and finally . . . . .

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Quick Poll – show of hands

1.How many are part of a 2 (or more) car family?

2.How many are retired ?

3.How many have ever considered an electric car ?

4.How many have driven a 100% electric car?

Presentations & Public Speaking

Rotary 2015 final 2