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Designing scientifically possible, economically feasible & socially desirable futures
Dr. Ozcan Saritas
National Research University, Higher School of Economics
Moscow
Foresight for Sustainable Development Goals
Agenda
Sustainable Development Goals and their nature
Complexities of goals and their implementation
Need for Foresight
How Foresight may serve to achieve the goals?
Major prospects and innovations in Foresight
Conclusions
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UNITED NATIONS Sustainable Development Goals
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Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Offer a ‘supremely ambitious and transformational vision’
for our common future till 2030
Provide an integrated vision that is supported by
quantified targets for future development till 2030
Universally applicable to all countries while taking into
account the specifics of different national policies,
priorities and their capacities and levels of development
5
Implementing the SDGs
A complex system of issues requiring a holistic view
Systemically inter-connected and inter-dependent
Require customised targets, co-ordinated strategies and
policies for intervention, commitment and impact
Plenty of unknown unknowns in the form of wild cards,
surprises and shocks during the implementation
Foresight
New Foresight landscape
Foresigh
t
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Understanding global megatrends
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Complexity of systems
Fossil fuel
reserves and
alternative
conversions
Energy
conversion &
power
distribution
Urban buildings
& infrastructure
as carbon sink
Renewable
resources, local &
regional Bio-mass &
bio-fuel
energy
Global atmosphere
with carbon storage
and climate balance Fossil fuel extraction
industry – national /
global
Carbon
embedded
in goods &
products
Carbon stored /
embedded in waste
to landfill or
recovery
Carbon
emissions
responsibility
via energy
demand
Carbon net
trade balance of
imports / exports
Carbon
sequestration in
soil & biomass
CITY
CITY-REGION
REGION
Ravetz (2011)
Mapping patterns of conflict / competition (political / economic / ideological): in typical situations of
displacement & disconnection (physical / economic / social / political)
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Demand & Supply – Challenges & Opportunities
Information and Communication Technology
New Materials & Nanotechnologies
Medicine and Healthcare
Biotechnology
Energy Efficiency and Energy Saving
Transport and Space Systems
Environmental Management
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How Foresight might help?
“the application of
‘systematic’,
‘participatory’,
‘future-intelligence-gathering
and medium-to-long-term
vision building process’ to
‘informing present-day
decisions and mobilising joint
actions’”
Foresight assisting policy coherence and
implementation
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Fully
Fledged
Foresight
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Actor network systems
Banks & finance
TTOs
HEIs & PRIs
Research
centres
Industrial firms:
Large & SMEs
Complementary
products prod.
Services
Governmental /
regulatory bodies
Distributors
Suppliers Trade
associations
Components
Machinery
Specialised
infrastructures
Training &
Know. transfer
Research &
Technical skills
Managerial and
service support
Value
added
cycle
Actor networks: Inputs & Outputs
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Localisation & Decentralisation
Vertical and horizontal policy integration
Effective communications within and across
governance levels by ensuring that interactions
among policies are mutually supportive
Shift from Government to Governance
Government: A top-down approach to regulate the behaviour of
institutions and people in quite detailed ways – ‘powers over’
Governance: Sets the parameters of the system within which
people and institutions behave so that self-regulation achieves
the desired outcomes – ‘powers to’
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Formation & implementation
• Strategic scalar alignment: Being context-aware and positioning at the regional, national and global levels with tensions and opportunities arising at all levels
• Complementarity: Between value chain, institutional and social actors for investment, competitiveness, risk sharing and mutual learning
• Networking: Socialization, Articulation, Combination & Internalisation to make use of tacit and explicit knowledge embedded in clusters
Fikirkoca & Saritas (2012)
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Initiation
Intelligence
Imagination
Integration
Intervention
Impact
Interaction
Horizon Scanning
Literature review
Big Data & STI mining
Social Network Analysis
Systems Mapping
Scenario Planning
Modelling Gaming
Delphi
Multi-criteria analysis
Success scenarios
SWOT analysis
Visioning
Roadmapping
Backcasting
Strategic planning
Critical/key technologies
Forecasting
Scoping
Priority-setting
Policy assessment
Survey
Interviews
OR methods
Stakeholder mapping
Expert panels
Workshops
Action planning
Environmental Scanning
Voting
Polling
Indicators
Brainstorming
Interpretation
Systemic Process:
FORSTAR – Foresight process & methods
Miles, I., Saritas, O. and Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
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Foresight process
1. Initiation: Scoping and preparation to embark upon Foresight
2. Intelligence: Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues through environmental and horizon scanning
3. Imagination: The input from scanning is synthesised into quantitative and qualitative models of the situations
4. Integration: Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future
5. Interpretation: Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme
6. Intervention: Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations
7. Impact: Assesses the results and impacts of Foresight exercise, learns from experience and provides input for next round
8. Interaction: Develops mechanisms to provide the engagement of experts and stakeholders through the Foresight process to ensure transparency, inclusivity and legitimacy of the Foresight activity
Miles, I., Saritas, O. and Sokolov, A. (2016). Foresight for Science, Technology and Innovation, Springer Verlag, Berlin.
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New instruments for Foresight: Big Data Analytics
HSE ISSEK “Intellectual Analytics” System
Literature & media
review Pattern analysis
Global Technology Trend Monitoring System
(GTMS)
Big data
methods and
qualitative
analytical tools
Network & cluster
analysis
Focus groups &
interviews Bibliometric &
patent analysis
NLP & semantic analysis
Expert evaluation
STEEPV, WS, WC &
SWOT analysis
Analytical
reports
> 50 000
So
urc
es
P
rocesses
R
esu
lts
Grants
NSF,
NIH
Annual scientific
conferences
> 100
Scientific publications
> 2 mln scientific articles
> 10 000 research fronts
PCT Patents
> 700 000
News
feeds
> 100
Expert
database
>10 000 Russian and foreign
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How Foresight may help?
Outputs
• Build visions of the future
• Provide anticipatory intelligence to system actors
• Set general research directions
• Inform policy and public debates
• Inform funding and investment priorities
• Evidence-based policy guidelines for policymakers and other innovation actors
Outcomes
• During the Exercise
– Building of new linkages
– Changing perceptions / new
understanding / enlightenment
– Articulation of widely-shared
visions
• Immediately After
– New (interdisciplinary) R&D
programmes and projects
– Further use and development of
Foresight results
• Sometime Later
– R&D and innovation impacts
– New working communities
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How Foresight may help?
• Convergence of STI with social and industrial policy in the context of knowledge economy
• Emerging reorientation of STI policy with emphasis upon demand-side policies
– Key driver of development is linkage between local capabilities and effective demand
– With an industrial policy based upon fostering clusters, platforms and supply chains
• Concept of innovation ecosystem, where Foresight contributes in creating shared strategic vision between the actors involved in clusters
Planning for SDG implementation
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To assess the relevance of the goals for the country
context based on current data and trends regionally (i.e.
world regions) nationally and sub-nationally
Today
SDGs
2030
2025
2020
Source: Bizikova, 2016
Planning for SDG implementation
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• SDGs
• National, regional relevance of SDGS
• National SDGs targets
• Region 1
• Region 2
• Regional SDGs strategies, policies,
• National, SDGs strategies
• Regional SDGs strategies, policies,
• Monitoring, Reporting
• Sub-national SDGs targets
• Sub-national SDGs targets
• Comparing and aggregating Foresight outcomes
Source: Bizikova, 2016
Users of Foresight outputs by stakeholders
Trend
monitoring
results
GOVERNMENT
Strategies and policies
Allocating national funds
BUSINESS/INDUSTRY
Strategies and innovation programmes
for emerging global trends
New products and markets
New technologies for production and
services
SCIENCE
Identify R&D priorities
Promising research themes
& concepts
International partnerships
EDUCATION
Education programmes
SOCIETY
Evaluating STI programmes
Understanding challenges & opportunities
Civil society support & engagement
Social adaptation
New skills and capabilities
Academic research programmes
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Conclusions and further development
SDGs are broad targets and mean different things for
different countries/regions
Implementation requires Foresightful actions
…complemented by the systemic thinking of:
- the goals
- actors & networks
- process & methodology of implementation
Clear strategies and roadmaps will help to pave the way
towards sustainable futures
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Further references
www.emeraldinsight.com/fs.htm
http://foresight-journal.hse.ru/en/
End of presentation.
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Ozcan Saritas
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Moscow, Russian Federation
