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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief March 16, 2012
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WPA’s Key Weekend Charts
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday morning.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Romney and potential trouble with evangelical and lower income Republican voters
• Santorum’s headline grabbing wins aren’t bringing him closer to victory
• Potential trouble Romney may face in sealing victory before the convention
• Texas is an area that may give Romney a challenge.
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Weekly Summary
Romney’s underperformance among lower income and evangelical Republicans is real, but not
necessarily overwhelming. While the campaign needs to improve their performance among these
groups, they are not losing them in incredible numbers.
While Santorum is grabbing headlines with victories in Mississippi and Alabama, headlines are all
he’s winning.
• Romney kept even with Santorum’s gains in Mississippi and Alabama (9 delegates) by
sweeping American Samoa (9 delegates).
However, while Romney has won 50% of the delegates so far, he has to continue to win 50% or
more of the remainder to lock up the nomination before the convention. A misstep in Texas could
radically alter how the convention plays out.
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American’s are dissatisfied with the direction of the country.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 31%
57% 63% 63%
75%
64% 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
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Obama’s approval has ticked downward slightly this week.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 49%
Disapprove 47% 47%
46% 52%
44% 43% 47%
49% 42%
51% 52% 47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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Unemployment stayed even with its January position at 8.3%.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup Gallup data is not seasonally adjusted
7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50%
10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50%
Gallup Data
9.1%
8.8%
10.3% 10.1%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
February, 2012 8.3%
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$137,000
$1,314,955,736,200
$15,507,410,777,829
The national debt has increased $30,478,962,629 since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Taxpayer
Federal Budget Deficit
Page 8
Obama’s brief economic boost last week was fleeting.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll
58%
50%
46%
40% 36%
41% 38%
38% 49%
51%
59% 62%
56% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
39845 39934 40026 40118 40210 40299 40391 40483 40575 40664 40756 40848 40940
Obama on the Economy
Approve Disapprove
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Democrats have a slight edge on the generic ballot.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Republicans 44% 44%
Democrats 43% 43%
41% 42% 43% 42%
45% 44% 44% 46% 43% 44% 42%
43% 43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
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While Obama and Romney have been very close since January, Obama retains a slight edge.
47% 49% 48%
45% 44% 44%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
January February March
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
Source: Real Clear Politics (monthly average)
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16%
31% 25%
44% 39% 43%
22% 34%
24% 19%
70%
38% 26% 27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Romney Under $50K Vote Percentage by State
Under $50K Romney Vote Total Romney Vote %
While state to state performance varies, Romney is underperforming slightly among low income voters.
25%
39%
28%
46% 50% 47%
41%
26%
38%
28% 28%
72%
40%
29% 30%
IA NH SC FL NV AZ MI GA OH TN OK MA VT AL MS
Difference -9% -8% -3% -2% -11% -4% -0% -4% -4% -4% -9% -2% -2% -3% -3%
Source: Exit Polling
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14%
31% 21%
36% 43%
36% 35%
19% 30% 24% 27%
57%
39% 27% 29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Romney Evangelical Vote Percentage by State
Evangelical Romney Vote % Total Romney Vote %
Romney’s share of the evangelical vote lags slightly behind his overall totals in most races so far.
25%
39%
28%
46% 50%
47% 41%
26%
38%
28% 28%
72%
40%
29% 30%
IA NH SC FL NV AZ MI GA OH TN OK MA VT AL MS
Difference -11% -8% -7% -10% -7% -11% -6% -7% -8% -4% -1% -15% -1% -2% -1%
Source: Exit Polling
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While Santorum is winning states, he’s not gaining delegates proportionally enough to overtake Romney. Everything Santorum gained in winning Mississippi and Alabama was offset by Romney’s win in American Samoa.
Candidate Delegates
Romney 495
Santorum 234
Gingrich 142
Paul 64
Romney
Santorum
Gingrich
Delegate Counts
Candidate Mississippi Alabama American Samoa
Romney 12 11 9
Santorum 13 19 0
Romney Difference -1 -8 +9
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While Santorum is only hoping to make it to the convention, Romney will need to deliver a stronger performance to ensure that he wins before the August convention.
De
leg
ate
s
Candidate Needed to Win % To Win
Romney 649 50%
Santorum 910 71%
Awarded So Far
Candidate Awarded so far
Romney 50%
Santorum 18%
1,289 Delegates Left
Most
Least
Page 15
Texas may pose a challenge to Romney as Santorum leads in Texas by 8 points.
GOP Primary in Texas
27%
35%
20%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Total Romney Total Santorum Total Gingrich Total Paul
Source: WPA Texas Statewide 3/11-13/2012, n=750 GOP Primary Voters
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Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
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202.494.3084
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Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
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405.640.9517
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202.470.6300
