120316 EVCA Conference - Mega Trends

8/2/2019 120316 EVCA Conference - Mega Trends

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The Power

Megatrendsof

The Driving Forces of ChangeDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



The Age of Anxiety?

Donnerstag, 15. März 2012












HolisticFuturism

System &

ComplexityTheory

Game Theory

ProbabilityTheory

BehavioristicEconomy

EvolutionaryPsychology




Long Term

Megatrends are:




Ubiquitous

Economy Culture

ValuesDaily Life

ConsumerismDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



Resilient !




Slow !The one % per year rule




1 % increase in female income per year

1 % urban population worldwide

1 % increased education in all countries

1 % more renewable energy

1 % more REAL internet-users




1 % more non-typical workplaces

1 % more centenarians

1 % more patchwork families

1 % more productivity

1 % more connectivity




The Tipping Point Rule

100

75

50

25

47 46 39404142434445%

Tipping

Area




0

750

1.500

2.250

3.000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1991 1995 2000 2005 2009 2015

Cigarettes Smoked

The Nonsmoking Infection

40%




A quantitative change,sooner or later, becomes a

qualitative one.

Friedrich Engels




Megatrend

Countertrend

Synthesis




Networking

Regression

StressIndividualisation

New Tribalism




Meta-Mobility

Non-mobile Mobility

Trafc JamMobility




GloCALisation

HomesicknessGlobalisation

Separatism

Authentic-Trend




Flexicurity

New Work

Insecurity




Life-Phasing

Aging

Downaging




Megatrends

are the Hybrid-Makers of

History




Pro sumer

Glocal isation

Flexi curity

Free miumCoo petition

Real virtualityDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



ALWAYS ON

FLEXIBILISIERUNG

LIFE-LONG-LEARNING

WERTEWANDEL

FLASHMOB-KONSUM

EIGEN-VERANTWORTUNG

KREATIV-WIRTSCHAFT

TOURISMUS

WORK-LIFE-BALANCE

MOBILEBÜROS

FLEXICURITY

ICH-AG

BIO-BOOM

CREATIVEHOTSPOTS

WISSENS-GESELLSCHAFT

WOMANOMICSSELFNESSHEALTHSTYLE LEBENS-

QUALITÄT

AGELESSCONSUMING

DEMOGRAFISCHERWANDEL

DOWNAGING

SUPER GRANNYS

SILVERPRENEURE

BEST AGER

GREYHOPPERSILVER-SURFER

INNOVATIONECONOMY

HIGH POTENTIALS

PRIVATSCHULEN-BOOM

E-LEARNING

CLEVERKIDS

BILDUNGS-BUSINESS

DIY-PRINZIP

DEEP SUPPORT

MASSCUSTOMIZATION

LEBENSSTILEPLURALISIERUNG

MULTIGRAPHIE

PATCHWORK-FAMILIEN

SINGLE-GESELLSCHAFT

E-HEALTH

GEO TAGGING

WORLD WIDE WEB

OPEN SOURCE

DIGITALEVERNETZUNG

SOCIAL MEDIA

CLIP-KULTUR

DIGITAL LIFESTYLE

REAL DIGITAL

OFFLINE TREND

E-COMMERCE

SMART PHONES

APPS WORLD

WEB 2.0

OPENINNOVATION

SINN-MÄRKTE

SELBST-VERWIRKLICHUNG

CASTING-KULTUR

KOLLEKTIVEVERNETZUNG

LOHASNEO-CITYSURBAN FARMING

GREEN TECH

KLIMAWANDELFAIR TRADE

ENERGY GRIDS

ECO-FASHION

CSR

GREENINVESTMENTS

ERNEUERBAREENERGIE

SOCIAL BUSINESS

GREEN IT AUTHENTIC TREND

UMWELTBEWUSSTSEIN

ENERGIEEFFIZIENZ

NACHHALTIGKEIT

STRATEGISCHERKONSUM

FEMINISIERUNG

NEUE MÄNNER

BILDUNGS-GEWINNER

NEUEMÜTTER

FEMALE POWER

GLEICH-BERECHTIGUNG

M-COMMERCE

GLOBETROTTER

24/7 GESELLSCHAFT

VENDING CULTURE

CAR-SHARING

THIRDPLACES

UNTERWEGS-MÄRKTE

E-MOBILITÄT

INTERNATINALISIERUNG

BRICITIZING

EMERGINGMARKETS

NEXT ELEVEN

YOUNG GLOBALISTS

WACHSTUMS-ZENTREN MEGA-CITYS

GLOBAL BRANDSDIVERSITY

WELTHANDEL

REGIONALISIERUNG

VERSTÄDTERUNG

BEVÖLKERUNGS-WACHSTUM

LANDFLUCHT

WIRTSCHAFTSKRAFT

GESUNDHEITS-MANAGEMENT

MEDICALWELLNESS

CORPORATEHEALTH

FUNCTIONAL FOOD

SOCIALNETWORKS

ZWEITERGESUNDHEITSMARKT

PUBLIC HEALTH

KÖRPERBEWUSSTSEIN

UNIQUABILITY

TALENTE

FACHKRÄFTE-MANGEL

SERVICE-ÖKONOMIE

NEUEBUSINESS-MORAL

MEGATREND-MAPDie Megatrend-Map zeigt die elf zentralen Megatrends unserer Zeit.Megatrends sind nie linear und eindimensional, sondern vielfältig,komplex und vernetzt. Die Form der Darstellung zeigt daher nicht nurdie Trends an sich, sondern vi sualisiert auch die Überschneidungenund Parallelen zwischen den Megatrends.Die einzelnen Stationen einer Megatrend-Line wiederum verdeutlichendie unterschiedlichen Dimensionen, Facetten und Trendaspekte.Sie bilden die Vielschichtigkeit eines Megatrends und die diversenEinussfaktoren ab, die im Umfeld eines Megatrends wirken.

Megatrendssind jene Trends, die einen großen und epochalen Charakter haben. IhreHalbwertszeit (die Zeit bis zum Zenit ihrer Wirksamkeit) nehmen wir mit 30 Jahrenoder mehr an.Das entscheidende Merkmal von Megatrends ist aber weniger ihre Dauer, sondern ihr„Impact“. Sie verändern nicht nur einzelne Segmente oder Bereiche des sozialenLebens oder der Wirtschaft. Sie formen ganze Gesellschaften um.

CONNECTIVITY

GLOBALISIERUNG

MOBILITÄT

NEW WORK

FEMALE SHIFT

BILDUNG

INDIVIDUALISIERUNG

SILVER SOCIETY

GESUNDHEIT

URBANISIERUNG

NEO-ÖKOLOGIE

GESUNDHEIT

NEW WORK

SILVER SOCIETY

BILDUNG

INDIVIDUALISIERUNG

URBANISIERUNG

GLOBALISIERUNG

CONNECTIVITY

FEMALE SHIFT

MOBILITÄT

NEO-ÖKOLOGIE


GLEICH-BERECHTIGUNG

MEDICALWELLNESSNEW WORK



LIFE-LONG-LEARNING

CREATIVEHOTSPOTS


WSELFNESSHEALTHSTYLE LEBENS-

QUALITÄT

SILVERPRENEURE

BEST AGER

GREYHOPPERSILVER-SURFER

INNOVATIONECONOMY

HIGH POTENTIALS

PRIVATSCHULEN-BOO

CLEVERKIDS

BILDUNGS-BUSINESS

DIY-PRINZIP

DEEP SUPPORT

MASSCUSTOMIZATION

LEBENSSTILEPLURALISIERUNG

MULTIGRAPHIE

PATCHWORK-FAMILIEN

SINGLE-GESELLSCHAFT

E-HEALTH

GEO TAGGING

WORLD WIDE WEB

DIGITALEVERNETZUNG

LOHASURBAN FARMING

KLIMAWANDEL

STRATEGISCHERKONSUM

BERECHTIGUNG

24/7 GESELLSCHAFT

VENDING CULTURE

WACHSTUMS-ZENTREN


VERSTÄDTERUNG

BEVÖLKERUNGS-WACHSTUM

WELLNESS

TALENTE

FACHKRÄFTE-MANGEL

SERVICE-ÖK

CONNECTIVITY

GLOBALISIERUNG

MOBILITÄT

NEW WORK

GESUNDHEIT

URBANISIERUNG

NEO-ÖKOLOGIE

NEW WORK

BILDUNG

URBANISIERUNG




FLEXIBILISIERUNG

WE

EIGEN-VERANTWORTUNG

WORK-LIFE-BALANCE

MOBILEBÜROS

ICH-AG

WOMANOMICSSELFNESSLEBENS-QUALITÄT

AGELESSCONSUMING

DEMOGRAFISCHERWANDEL

DOWNAGING

SUPER GRANNYS

EPRIVATSCHULEN-BOOM

SINGLE-GESELLSCHAFT

E-HEALTH

DIGITALEVERNETZUNG

GR

NACHHALTIGKE

EMINISIERUNG

EUE MÄNNER

BILDUNGS-GEWINNER

GLEICH-BERECHTIGUNG

M-COMMERCE

GLOBETROTTER

THIRDPLACES

UNTERWEGS-MÄRKTE

FUNCTIONAL FOOD ZWEITGESUN

PUBLIC HE

SILVER SOCIETY

FEMALE SHIFT

MOBILITÄT

NEO-ÖKOLOG


OPENINNOVATION



FLASHMOB-KONSUM

KREATIV-WIRTSCHAFT

OPEN SOURCESOCIAL MEDIA

CLIP-KULTUR

DIGITAL LIFESTYLE

REAL DIGITAL

OFFLINE TREND

E-COMMERCE

SMART PHONES

APPS WORLD

WEB 2.0

INNOVATION

KOLLEKVERNET

GREEN TECH

FAIR TRADE

ERGY GRIDS

ECO-FASHION

FEMALE POWER

A-CITYS

LTHANDEL

LANDFLUCHT

WIRTSCHAFTSKRAFT

SOCIALNETWORKS

CONNECTIVITYDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



ICH-AG

BIO-BOOM

GREENINVESTMENTS

ERNEUERBAREENERGIE

SOCIAL BUSINESS

GREEN IT AUTHENTIC TREND

UMWELTBEWUSSTSEIN

ENERGIEEFFIZIENZ

GESUNDHEITS-MANAGEMENT CORPORATEHEALTH

ZWEITERGESUNDHEITSMARKT

PUBLIC HEALTH

KÖRPERBEWUSSTSEIN

UNIQUABILITY

NEUE

BUSINESS-MORAL


EIGEN-E-HEALTH



ALWAYS ON

FLEXIBIL

VERANTWORTU

TOURISMUS


WOMANOMICSSELFNESSLEBENS-QUALITÄT

E

HIGH POTENTIALS

PRIVATSCHULEN-BOOM

E-LEARNING

-FAMILIEN

SINGLE-GESELLSCHAFT

GEO TAGGING

WORLD WIDE WEB

DIGITALEVERNETZUNG

BILDUNGS-GEWINNER

24/7 GESELLSCHAFT

NG CULTURE


SNSERVICE-ÖKONOMIE




Megatrend

GlobalisationDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



Gapminder.com

Hans Rosling



















The NewGLOBALMIDDLECLASS

The NewUpwardly

Mobile POOR







Third World

The Old System

Europe

USA




The Multipolarity-System

Europe

USA China

India

ArabCountries

Africa




Jeff! Rubin and Benjamin Tal: Will Soaring Transport Costs Reverse Globalization?

4 % Production

Transport

1999Oil = 20 $/Gallon

200819 % Herstellung

Oil

Transport

Work CostsRaw Material Costs

GloCALisation = Export Peak




Yearly Earnings 2005

0

India

China

Eastern Europe

Russia

Indonesia/ Philippines

100.000 $

Bangladesh/Vietnam

Canada

Ireland

Germany

Atlas der Globalisierung

Yearly Earnings 2030

50.000 $

USA




Supercycles




1850 1900 1950 2000

3 %

5 %4 %

2050800

Foundation Era

Economic Miracle MillenniumBoom

Standard Chartered Bank







Countries whose economic complexity isgreater than what we would expect, giventheir level of income, tend to grow faster

than those that are “too rich” for theircurrent level of economic complexity. Inthis sense, economic complexity is not justa symptom or an expression of prosperity:it is a driver.

„













Ghana

Poland

Thailand

Turkey





M t d



Megatrend

WomenDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 19601970

19801990

20002010 2020


1991 2004



0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6NorwaySaudi Arabia

USAUK

FranceAustria, South AfricaIran

Switzerland

India

South Korea

1991 2004

Ratio of girls to boys in tertiary education, gender parity, United Nations Statistic Division

EducationEquality

female/male


M S d



Eurostat

Men, SwedenMen, GermanyWomen, SwedenWomen, Germany

2050

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002Donnerstag, 15. März 2012



When Women Rescue the World...




Elin SigdfúsdóttirNEW Landesbanki

Birna EinarsdóttirNew Glitnir Bank




Kandar KocharICICI, Indien

Manuala BetterHyp Real Estate




Hanna SievinenNokia Deutschland

Jo HarlowNokia worldwide




Susan RiceSecurity Council

The Libya War Makers...

Hillary ClintonForeign Minister

Samantha PowerForeign Ofce




James Taylor Liberia

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf

Liberia




Mary Broh, Mayor of Monrovia

Julia Cuncan-Casell,Governor




Muna Sieh,

Police DepartmentChief




WomanomicsThe feminized economy




Women will haveMORE incomeincrease than

men! 0

4

8

12

16

2008 2013

Female World Income in Trillion Dollar,Worldbank




USA Germany UK Japan Brazil China S-Arab

Boston Consulting, What Women Want, Economist

They will decidemore and moreabout consumer

goods andnancial

investment




Cars

Finance

Investments

Health

Car Insurance

PCs

0 10 20 30 40 50

Which branches should do much more for theneeds of women?

Boston Consulting, What Women Want




Moreconsumer

demand andspending power

Robusteconomic

systemMore demandfor complex

services

Morehappiness in

society =optimism Risingproductivityvia “diversitymanagement“

Fasterstructural

change / moreinnovation


Megatrend



Megatrend

DownagingDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



40 years old in

the year1940




40Today











Megatrend



Megatrend

ismDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



10%1900




50 %2007




75 %2050







THE VITAL DWELLERS




THE WORLD OF SHOPS




MULTI-MOBILITY




CLASH OF CULTURES




VERTICALITY




KNOWLEDGE SOCIETIES 2.0CHINESE UNIVERSITY, HONGKONG







PROJEKT

DATE CUSTOMER

2050 ERDEDonnerstag, 15. März 2012



Great cities represent an incredibleopportunity for a sustainable future:- they promote innovation throughproximity.- they can reduce population growth.- they can radically reduce carbonfootprint per person.- they can ease development pressure on

rural areas.- they can offer economic opportunity,culture, education.




Ecopolis




Ecopolis


Bosco Vertikale Mailand



Ecopolis


Megatrend



Megatrend

Individual-isationThe Culture of Choice







Canada

U.S

Euromonitor International/TIME 12.3.2012

Brazil

Italy

Sweden

Britain

Russia

Japan

India

Kenya

South Africa

34%47%

29%28%

27%

24%

31%

25%

15%

3%

10%




Canada

U.S

Euromonitor International/TIME 12.3.2012

Brazil

Italy

Sweden

Britain

Russia

Japan

India

Kenya

South Africa

40%50%

46%42%

45%

32%

51%

35%

22%

20%

26%

2030




GreenomicsDonnerstag, 15. März 2012







The Cyces of



The Cyces of

NicolaiKondratieff







Energy GridsDonnerstag, 15. März 2012


















Network Energy Markets


European Energy Grid






Occupation Summer

Text













You see what you get Schrift an den Wänden




You see what you get Schrift an den Wänden

















H



HomeApps




Touchwall: instinctive room control device








































Sm rt a Tech


S



Smart

implehu an

eleg ntadicaladap ive


Simplex ity



Simplex ity


Retro -Tech



Nike combat boots


R ili



Resilience

Technic AccuDonnerstag, 15. März 2012

S i I i



Service Integration


Empowerment




Rightsizing






Bionics

Network Integration




From Industrial to Post-industrial Economies


IT

CreativeEconomy

Building



Finance

Cars Machines

Environmental

Industries

Logistics

Health& Social

IT

Tourism

Energy/

Water

Food.

Culture/Sports

Building

Pharma


MachinesIT

.

Building



Finance Cars

Environment

Logistics

Health&

Social

Tourism

Energy/ Water

CreativeEconomy

Pharma


Media

Communi-cation

PR



CulturalIndustries

Sports

Web

ArtsMuseums

Festivals

Design

Media

Architecture

Gastronomics

MusicAcademies

Events

PR


AdultEducation

E-Learning



NewEducation

CorporateSocial

management

NewSchools

Kinder-gartens

PrivateUniversities

Education

LifeCoaching

Work

Empowerment

Training,Coaching

EducationalSponsoring Age

Learning


Holistic

Spiritual



CareProviding-

SektorHealthAssistance

Inter-generative

Living

ProvidedCare

HealthManage-

ment

HealthClusters

HolisticMedicine

HolisticHealth

AgeTraining

Rehabilitation

HealthTraining

pOffers

Palliative

Hospitals/ Pharma

Age

Living


Solar

E G id H d g



GreenIndustries

New

Architec-ture

E-Housing

Telematics

& Wind

Energy-conversion

Biofuels

Recycling/

NewMaterials

E-Storage

E-Grid(IT)

Hydrogen

GreenCities

LandscapeRestauration


JustI t lli t

Workow



SmartLogistics

RFID New

DeliveryArchitectures

Integrative

Recycling

Telematic

Just-in time

GreenTransport

Information

Management

IntelligentStoring

Management

UrbanManagement


Media

Content



SmartTech

Web basedknowledge

systems

Humanconsulting

SoftwareSupport

ProductDesign

Systems

Storage

Social

Networks

Information

Management

Content

Flow

ContentProviding

TouchTechnologies




Progress is only possible if you change the rules

intelli - gently.

Borislaw Barlog




No clue, why people areafraid of new ideas. I amscared of the old ones.

John Cage




www.zukunftsinstitut.de

www.horx.com


http://www.zukunftsinstitut.de/






M AT T H I A SHORX Wie Menschen Zukunft gestaltenDAS BUC H DES WANDELS

Documents

120316 EVCA Conference - Mega Trends