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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief May 18, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Three key swing states, Florida, Michigan, and North Carolina
• How Obama did in 2008, how he’s doing now, and what unemployment in each state
currently is.
• The Goldman Sachs GLI Index is trending toward a global recession.
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Weekly Summary
The Republican lead on the generic congressional ballot continues to creep higher, as
economic indicators continue to creep lower. Goldman Sach’s GLI index highlights some
worrying trends this week.
President Obama’s image remains split with nearly equal amounts of American’s
approving as disapproving of how he has handled the presidency. His economic rating
still shows a majority of Americans disapprove.
A look at several swing states this week shows that, while Obama is leading Romney
nationally, he is underperforming in key states.
• Obama trails his 2008 vote in Michigan by 12 points and Romney has taken an eight
point lead in North Carolina.
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Most Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 34% 33%
57% 63% 63%
75%
64% 60% 59%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
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Obama’s image has been split for months, since December.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 49% 48%
Disapprove 48% 47%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49% 49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47% 48%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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$50,167
$138,466
$15,730,482,445,159
The national debt has increased $18,956,230,001 this week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Citizen
Debt Per Taxpayer
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41% 42% 43% 42%
45%
44% 43% 41% 43%
46% 43% 44% 42%
43%
44% 45% 41%
46%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
The Republican edge on the generic congressional ballot crept even higher this week.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
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Obama’s approval rating on handling the economy continues to be inverted, with 13% more who disapprove than approve.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40%
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Gallup’s unadjusted unemployment dropped to 8.2% halfway through May.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
April, 2012 8.1%
7.00% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% 9.00% 9.50%
10.00% 10.50% 11.00% 11.50%
Gallup Data
8.2%
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Obama has maintained a slight edge over Romney since January, though that lead has shrunk to a few points in recent weeks. The president remains under 50% however, a worrying sign for an incumbent.
Source: Real Clear Politics
47% 49% 49% 49% 47% 49% 47% 46% 45%
46% 43% 45% 44% 43% 45% 44% 45%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-Jan 15-Jan 1-Feb 15-Feb 1-Mar 15-Mar 1-Apr 15-Apr 1-May 15-May
Obama vs. Romney
Obama Romney
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Goldman Sach’s GLI index has developed a swirl pattern that looks to be headed toward a recession.
Source: Goldman Sachs
Goldman Sach’s Global Leading Indicator
Index is an index which attempts to
highlight trends ahead of economic
reports released by individual companies.
It incorporates a variety of individual
component reports including consumer
confidences, manufacturing surveys, and
several other components standardized
to a common mean and then filters this
data through a business cycle
construction to in an attempt to provide a
look at where the global economy is
headed.
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Source: Glengariff Group May 10-11, n=600 LV
40%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Romney Obama
Obama 2008 Unemployment
57% 8.5%
Swing State Focus: Michigan
Michigan is very competitive right now. While Obama carried the state by a healthy margin in 2008, he is trailing his 2008 position by12 points.
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44% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Romney Obama
Source: Quinnipiac April 25-May 1, n=1,169 RV
Obama 2008 Unemployment
51% 9.0%
Swing State Focus: Florida
In Florida, another state that Obama carried in 2008, the president trails his 2008 total by eight points.
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51%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Romney Obama
Source: Rasmussen May 14, 2012, n=500 likely voters
Obama 2008 Unemployment
50% 9.7%
Swing State Focus: North Carolina
North Carolina has seen Mitt Romney jump ahead of Obama, who narrowly carried the state in 2008.
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For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
