NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman

Kathe Newman, Associate Professor and DirectorwithMargaret Ricke,Research Associate Ralph W. Voorhees Center for Civic EngagementUrban Planning and Policy DevelopmentEdward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public PolicyRutgers University

March 2013

Lending and Foreclosure in NJ

Tuesday, March 5, 13

OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON

Share of High-Cost Loans by Census TractLess than 10%

10% to 25%

25% to 50%

Greater than 50%

NJ Counties

0 10 205MilesSource: FFIEC, Home Mortgage Disclosure ActNew Jersey Geographic Information Network

High-Cost Home Mortgage Originations

New Jersey, 2005-2006


Foreclosure Starts


0.00#

0.10#

0.20#

0.30#

0.40#

0.50#

0.60#

0.70#

0.80#

0.90#

1.00#03

:Q1#

03:Q2#

03:Q3#

03:Q4#

04:Q1#

04:Q2#

04:Q3#

04:Q4#

05:Q1#

05:Q2#

05:Q3#

05:Q4#

06:Q1#

06:Q2#

06:Q3#

06:Q4#

07:Q1#

07:Q2#

07:Q3#

07:Q4#

08:Q1#

08:Q2#

08:Q3#

08:Q4#

09:Q1#

09:Q2#

09:Q3#

09:Q4#

10:Q1#

10:Q2#

10:Q3#

10:Q4#

11:Q1#

11:Q2#

11:Q3#

11:Q4#

12:Q1#

12:Q2#

12:Q3#

AZ#

CA#

FL#

IL#

MI#

NJ#

NV#

NY#

OH#

PA#

TX#

ALL#

New York Federal Reserve Bank Household Debt and Credit Report FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, 5% sample of people with credit reports using Equifax expanding with household characteristics the NY Fed collects http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/data_dictionary_HHDC.pdf

Consumers with New Foreclosures 2003-Q3 2012

New Jersey

0.00#

0.05#

0.10#

0.15#

0.20#

0.25#

03:Q

1#03

:Q2#

03:Q

3#03

:Q4#

04:Q

1#04

:Q2#

04:Q

3#04

:Q4#

05:Q

1#05

:Q2#

05:Q

3#05

:Q4#

06:Q

1#06

:Q2#

06:Q

3#06

:Q4#

07:Q

1#07

:Q2#

07:Q

3#07

:Q4#

08:Q

1#08

:Q2#

08:Q

3#08

:Q4#

09:Q

1#09

:Q2#

09:Q

3#09

:Q4#

10:Q

1#10

:Q2#

10:Q

3#10

:Q4#

11:Q

1#11

:Q2#

11:Q

3#11

:Q4#

12:Q

1#12

:Q2#

12:Q

3#

NJ#New Jersey


NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings2005-2012

NJ Administrative Oce of the Courts, Foreclosure Division Accessible from NJ Division of Banking http://www.state.nj.us/dobi/division_banking/aoc_foreclosurestats.pdf

!20,253!!

!24,857!!

!36,360!!

!51,623!!

!66,717!!

!58,445!!

!11,037!!

!30,896!!

!-!!

!10,000!!

!20,000!!

!30,000!!

!40,000!!

!50,000!!

!60,000!!

!70,000!!

!80,000!!

2005! 2006! 2007! 2008! 2009! 2010! 2011! 2012!

Num

ber'o

f'Forec

losu

re'Filing

s'

Foreclosure'Filing'Year'

Total!Filings!

Residen;al!

Commercial!

Condo!

Tax!

Moratorium lifted August 2011

Moratorium applied Dec 2010


NJ: Number of Foreclosure Filings by Type of Filing2006-2012


0%#

10%#

20%#

30%#

40%#

50%#

60%#

70%#

80%#

90%#

100%#

2006# 2007# 2008# 2009# 2010# 2011# 2012#

Num

ber'o

f'Forec

losu

re'Filing

s'

Filing'Year'

Tax#

Condo#

Commercial#

Residen

Metro Areas: Highest Foreclosure Rate September 2012

Of 100 largest U.S. metro areas as of September 2012

Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March 2011. LPS analysis available here: : http://www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html Seriously delinquent loans are measured as loans that are 90 days or more delinquent or in

foreclosure. Analysis includes first liens.

Metro Metro RankForeclosure

Rate Prime Subprime

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 2nd 17% 10% 46%

Atlantic City-Hammonton 14th 13% 10% 44%

Trenton-Ewing 27th 10% 7% 39%

Ocean City 73rd 7% 5% 40%


Ocean City, NJ

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA

Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ

Trenton-Ewing, NJ

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ

Total Foreclosure RateLess than 6%6% to 8%8% to 10%Greater than 10%

0 10 20 30 405 Miles

Foreclosure RateMetropolitan Statistical Area

September 2012New Jersey

Source: LPS data analyzed by LISC, www.foreclosure-response.org


Ocean City, NJ





Trenton-Ewing, NJ


Prime Foreclosure RateLess than 4%4% to 5%5% to 6%Greater than 6%

0 10 20 30 405 Miles

Prime Foreclosure RateMetropolitan Statistical Area




Ocean City, NJ





Trenton-Ewing, NJ


Subprime Foreclosure RateLess than 25%25% to 30%30% to 35%Greater than 35%

0 10 20 30 405 Miles

Subprime Foreclosure RateMetropolitan Statistical Area




NJ Counties: Residential Foreclosure Filings by Year Filed2006-2012


0"

5000"

10000"

15000"

20000"

25000"

30000"

Atlan,c"

Bergen"

Burlington"

Camden"

Cape"May"

Cumberland"

Essex"

Gloucester"

Hunterdon"

Hudson"

Mercer"

Middlesex"

Monmouth"

Morris"

Ocean"

Passaic"

Salem

"

Somerset"

Sussex"

Union"

Warren"

Num

ber'o

f'Foreclosure'Filing

s'

County'Where'the'Property'Is'Located'

TOTAL"12"

TOTAL"11"

TOTAL"10"

TOTAL"09"

TOTAL"08"

TOTAL"07"

TOTAL"06"


OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEXSOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON

Residential Foreclosure Starts 2006Less than 1,000

1,000 - 2,000

2,000 - 3,000

3,000 - 5,000

More than 5,000

NJ Counties

0 10 205MilesSource: Administrative Office of the Courts, New Jersey State Courts

Foreclosure Starts 2006 - 2012

New Jersey


OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEXSOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON


1,000 - 2,000

2,000 - 3,000

3,000 - 5,000

More than 5,000

NJ Counties



New Jersey


Seriously Delinquent


0.00#

5.00#

10.00#

15.00#

20.00#

25.00#

30.00#03

:Q1#

03:Q2#

03:Q3#

03:Q4#

04:Q1#

04:Q2#

04:Q3#

04:Q4#

05:Q1#

05:Q2#

05:Q3#

05:Q4#

06:Q1#

06:Q2#

06:Q3#

06:Q4#

07:Q1#

07:Q2#

07:Q3#

07:Q4#

08:Q1#

08:Q2#

08:Q3#

08:Q4#

09:Q1#

09:Q2#

09:Q3#

09:Q4#

10:Q1#

10:Q2#

10:Q3#

10:Q4#

11:Q1#

11:Q2#

11:Q3#

11:Q4#

12:Q1#

12:Q2#

12:Q3#

AZ#

CA#

FL#

IL#

MI#

NJ#

NV#

NY#

OH#

PA#

TX#

ALL#

Percent of Mortgage Debt 90+ Days Delinquent, 120+ Days Delinquent, or Severely Derogatory

2003-2012 3Q

New York Federal Reserve Bank Household Debt and Credit Report FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel, 5% sample of people with credit reports using Equifax expanding with household characteristics the NY Fed collects http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/data_dictionary_HHDC.pdf

New Jersey

Florida

Nevada


Metro Areas: 90+ days delinquent (not yet in foreclosure)

Of 100 metro areas in the U.S. with the largest increase in 90+ day delinquencies Sept 12

Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage Sept 2012. LPS analysis available here: http://www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html. Seriously delinquent loans are measured as first liens that are 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Seriously delinquent rate is measured as 90+ delinquent share of all first lien mortgages.

Metro Metro Rank 90+ Days Delinquent

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 1st 9%

Atlantic City-Hammonton 7th 6%

Trenton-Ewing 29th 4%


Metro Areas: Serious Delinquency Sept 11- Sept 12(90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure)

Of the top 25 largest U.S. metro areas - September 2012 compared with September 2011

Foreclosure-Response.org summary of LPS Applied Analytics data with some modifications to adjust for undercoverage March 2012. LPS analysis available here: http://www.foreclosure-response.org/maps_and_data/metro_delinquency_data_tables.html 90 days or more delinquent or in foreclosure. Analysis includes first liens.

Metro Metro Rank 90+ Days Delinquent or in Foreclosure Sept 11-Sept 12

Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton 1st 26%

Atlantic City-Hammonton 2nd 19%

Trenton-Ewing 6th 14%




Trenton-Ewing, NJ



Ocean City, NJ


Serious Delinquency RateLess than 10%

10% to 12%

12% to 14%

Greater than 14%

0 10 20 30 405 Miles

Serious Delinquency RateMetropolitan Statistical Area

December 2009New Jersey


90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure in the last month




Trenton-Ewing, NJ



Ocean City, NJ



10% to 12%

12% to 14%

Greater than 14%

0 10 20 30 405 Miles






NJ: Loan Modifications and Workouts Reported by the Federal HAMP Program

Making Home Aordable. Servicer Performance Report Through December 2012. As of Feb 2013 http://www.treasury.gov/initiatives/financial-stability/reports/Pages/Making-Home-Aordable-Program-Performance-Report.aspx http://portal.hud.gov/portal/page/portal/HUD/initiatives/Housing%20Scorecard

0"

5,000"

10,000"

15,000"

20,000"

25,000"

30,000"

35,000"

40,000"Oct,09"

Nov

,09"

Dec,09

"Jan,10

"Feb,10

"Mar,10"

Apr,10

"May,10"

Jun,10

"Jul,1

0"Au

g,10

"Sep,10

"Oct,10"

Nov

,10"

Dec,10

"Jan,11

"Feb,11

"Mar,11"

Apr,11

"May,11"

Jun,11

"Jul,1

1"Au

g,11

"Sep,11

"Oct,11"

Nov

,11"

Dec,11

"Jan,12

"Feb,12

"Mar,12"

Apr,12

"May,12"

Jun,12

"Jul,1

2"Au

g,12

"Sep,12

"Oct,12"

Nov

,12"

Dec,12

"

Num

ber'o

f'Mod

ca/

ons' AcAve"or"

Permanent"ModicaAons"

AcAve"Trials"

Permanent"ModicaAons"


House Price Change


NJ Counties Year-to-Year House Price Change

New York Federal Reserve Bank. Feb 2013 based on NY Fed CoreLogic House Price Indices. http://www.newyorkfed.org/home-price-index/#

!20.0%&

!15.0%&

!10.0%&

!5.0%&

0.0%&

5.0%&

10.0%&

15.0%&

20.0%&

25.0%&

30.0%&

2003$ 2004$ 2005$ 2006$ 2007$ 2008$ 2009$ 2010$ 2011$ 2012$

Home$Price$De

cline$Ye

ar$to

$Yea

r$CoreLog

ic$Hou

se$Pric

e$Indices$V

ia$NY$Fed$

Hunterdon&

Atlan5c&

Bergen&

Burlington&

Camden&

Cape&May&

Cumberland&

Essex&

Gloucester&

Hudson&

Mercer&

Middlesex&

Monmouth&

Morris&

Ocean&

Passaic&

Salem&

Somerset&

Sussex&

Union&

Warren&

Cumberland

Cape May

Atlantic

Salem

Salem

HudsonCape May

Cape May

HudsonAtlantic

Atlantic

Passaic

Salem


OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON

Percent Change in Home Prices-25% to -20%

-20% to -15%

-15% to -10%

-10% to -5%

-5% to 0%

0% to 5%

5% to 10%

10% to 15%

15% to 20%

20% to 25%

0 10 205MilesSource: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2013

Change in Home PricesNew Jersey

January 2002 - January 2003


OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON


-20% to -15%

-15% to -10%

-10% to -5%

-5% to 0%

0% to 5%

5% to 10%

10% to 15%

15% to 20%

20% to 25%





OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEXSOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON

0 10 205Miles

Percentage of Vacant Housing (Excluding Seasonal, Recreational, or Occasional Use)

Less than 5%

5% to 15%

15% to 25%

Greater than 25%

NJ Counties

Source: US Census Bureau - 2010

Vacant Housing UnitsNew Jersey

Census 2010


Unemployment


OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON

Unemployment Rate by MunicipalityLess than 3%

3% to 6%

6% to 10%

10% to 15%

Greater than 15%

NJ Counties

0 10 205MilesSource: New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development;Labor Planning and AnalysisLocal Area Unemployemnt Statistics2000-2011

Unemployment RateNew Jersey, 2007


OCEAN

SUSSEX

ATLANTIC

BURLINGTON

MORRIS

SALEM

WARREN

MONMOUTH

CUMBERLAND

HUNTERDON

BERGEN

CAPE MAY

MIDDLESEX

SOMERSET

MERCER

CAMDEN

GLOUCESTER

PASSAIC

ESSEX

UNION

HUDSON


3% to 6%

6% to 10%

10% to 15%

Greater than 15%

NJ Counties




News & Politics

NJFuture Redevelopment Forum 13 Foreclosures Newman