New Energy For New Weather

Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy

NEW ENERGY FORNEWWEATHER

NEW ENERGY FORNEWWEATHER

John ByrneJohn Byrne

SOLARENERGYFOCUS CONFERENCEDecember 4, 2009


Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)

Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: Climbing Conventional Energy Prices:

U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)U.S. Energy Price Increases

U.S. Energy Price Increases

75%75%

125%125%

150%150%

175%175%

200%200%

225%225%

250%250%

275%275%

300%300%

20002000 20022002 20042004 20062006 20082008 20102010 20122012 20142014 20162016 20182018 20202020

NGNG

GasolineGasoline

Heating OilHeating Oil

ElectricityElectricity

Yr 2000Yr 2000PricePrice

Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)

Energy Expenditures as % of US GDPEnergy Expenditures as % of US GDP

9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs

9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs

Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009


January 31, 2002

February 23, 2002

March 5, 2002

World GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario60% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 2050

World GHG Emissions Reduction ScenarioWorld GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario60% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 205060% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 2050

World CO2 e Per Capita

World CO2 e Per Capita

1990 Annex I Benchmark

1990 Annex I Benchmark

-100%--100%100%

198019801980 200020002000 202020202020 204020402040 210021002100206020602060 208020802080

Annex IAnnex IAnnex I

Non-Annex INonNon--Annex IAnnex I

-80%--80%80%

199019901990

+37%+37%+37%

-60%--60%60%

-40%--40%40%

-20%--20%20%

+20%+20%+20% KyotoKyoto

Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.” In Urban Energy Transition: From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. Droege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27-54. See also Byrne et al (2004) “Reclaiming the atmospheric commons: Beyond Kyoto.” In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science Publishers, Inc.

Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon FootUndoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.print.”” In In Urban Energy Transition: Urban Energy Transition:

From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power.From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. P. DroegeDroege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27--54. See also Byrne et al (2004) 54. See also Byrne et al (2004) ““Reclaiming the atmospheric Reclaiming the atmospheric

commons: Beyond Kyoto.commons: Beyond Kyoto.”” In V.I. Grover (ed.), In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science

Publishers, Inc.Publishers, Inc.

0.00.00.0

5.05.05.0

10.010.010.0

15.015.015.0

20.020.020.0

25.025.025.0199019901990

3.33.3

14.914.914.9

11.911.911.9

8.98.98.9

6.06.06.0

2.22.22.2

0.00.00.0

205020502050

2.02.0

0.00.00.0

16.516.516.5

13.213.213.2

10.010.010.0

6.76.76.7

3.33.33.3

202520252025

2.22.2



Estimates of the Technical Potential of Renewable Energy Resources

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Solar Solar WindWind GeothermalGeothermal BiomassBiomass

Johansson et al (2004), WEC (2000)

de Vries (2007)

Exajoules

Exajoules

01020304050

HydropowerHydropower OceanOcean

Exajoules

Exajoules

* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies.* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies.


CSPy = 4661.5x

-0.145

LR=10%

PVy = 5421.5x

-0.331

LR=21%

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0

$/kW

Cumulative Installation (GW)

Windy = 2330.3x

LR=8%

-0.127

EXPERIENCE CURVES FOR SELECTED RENEWABLE ELECTRIC POWER TECHNOLOGIES

Source: Byrne et al. [2009] A Review of Solar Energy Technology, Markets and Policy. Prepared for the Climate Change & Clean Energy Development Research Group, World Bank


State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S.State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S.

Sources: CEEP Survey, 2009; DSIRE, 2009

29 states have completed Climate Change Action Planshttp://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/

content/ActionsStateActionPlans.html

34 states and Wash DC have passed legislation

5 states with pendinglegislation

HI: 20% by 2020

MA: 15% by 2020

NY: 24% by 2013

MN: 25% by 2020

TX: 3% by 2009

TX: 3% by 2009

CT: 10% by 2010

ME: 10%

new RE

by 2017

CO: 20%

by 2020

CO: 20%

by 2020Wash DC: 11% by 2022

NJ: 23% by 2021; 2% PV

PA: 18% by 2020

NH: 23% by 2025

AZ: 15% by 2025

AZ: 15% by 2025

NM: 10% by 2011

NM: 10% by 2011

MT: 10% by 2015

MT: 10% by 2015

WA: 15% by 2020

WA: 15% by 2020

OR: 25% by 2025

OR: 25% by 2025

NC: 12.5% by 2021

Delaware: 20% by 2019; 2% PVDelaware: 20% by 2019; 2% PV

IL:25%by2025

IL:25%by2025

NV:20%by2015

NV:20%by2015

CA: 20%

by 20

10

KS: 20% by 2020

KS: 20% by 2020

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Renewables – Approaching Parity

Data Source: Lazard 2008-09; CEEP (forthcoming)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Ener

gy E

fficien

cy

Wind

Coa

l IGCC

NG C

T

LCOE with US IncentivesLevelizedCost per kWh (US cents)

Utility Scale(competes in

Wholesale Market)

LCOE w/o Incentives

Distributed Energy(competes in Retail Market)

Solar T

herm

al

Solar P

V Th

in F

ilm

Solar P

V Cry

stallin

e

Mid-Atlantic Retail Electricity Price

Geo

ther

mal

MUSH: Municipalities (state/local government facilities); Universities; Schools; Hospitals

2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800TWh

POLICY OPTIONS TO SERVE 25% OFUS ELECTRICITY DEMAND FROM PV


‘Green Premium’ of 25 cents/kWh in 2010 & 15 cents/kWh in 2015

Very Efficient PV Modules (42%)

More Efficient PV Modules (28%)

CO2 price of $50/ton

CO2 price of $25/ton

BAU

25% in 2050 25% in 2050

@ 19.5@ 19.5¢¢ / kWh / kWh

((levelizedlevelized))

25% in 2055 25% in 2055

@ 21@ 21¢¢ / kWh / kWh

((levelizedlevelized))25% in 2045 25% in 2045

@ 18@ 18¢¢ / kWh / kWh


25% in 2035 25% in 2035

@ 15@ 15¢¢ / kWh / kWh


25% in 2025 25% in 2025

@ 11@ 11¢¢ / kWh / kWh


Source: John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili, (forthcoming) “The Impact of Policy on PV Industry Growth”In A. Luque & S. Hegedus (eds.) Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering 2nd ed. (NY: Wiley)

14

The Sustainable Energy Utility

• The SEU was fist established by the State of Delaware on June 28, 2007 to:

- Promote, provide and invest in energy efficiency services – Legislated Target: 30% Reduction in energy use by 2020

- Promote, provide and invest in increased deployment of Distributed Renewable Generation – Legislated Target: 10-20% of Electricity Sales from Distributed Renewables by 2020

• The SEU exists as a public/private partnership combining the best of both worlds

- SEU is organized as a non-profit tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization

- Day to day operations are conducted by for-profit companies, non-profits & others specializing in the energy sector

- Eliminates silos and provides solutions throughout the energy spectrum

Old Model New Model

The SEU is a new utility serving the interests of sustainability. It partners with existing utilities while building and investing in a sustainable energy infrastructure.

EducationEducationGasoline/ Diesel

Gasoline/ Diesel

WaterWaterTransportTransportNatural Gas

Natural Gas

ElectricityElectricity

SEULess

Transportation Energy

Less Electricity

Less Heating FuelWater/ Materials

Conservation

Distributed Renewables

Education

Green Buildings/ Green

Neighborhoods

Affordable Energy

http://www.seu-de.org/

•ARRA FUNDS

• RGGI AUCTION PROCEEDS

•TAX BENEFITS/ASSESSMENTS

•GREEN BOND AUTHORITY

•REC & SREC AGGREGATOR

• PUBLIC BENEFITS CHARGES

16

SEU Solar Share Program

SSOLAROLAR SSHAREHARE CCOO(Special Purpose Entity)

Participants

EquityInvestors(recruited by SEU)

By creating a Solar Share program, the SEU can efficiently maximize federal tax benefits, providing participants with lower cost renewable power on a platform that can include distributed & central location formats

SEU

Solar MWH

Incentives &

SREC Floor Pricing

$$ Energy & SREC Payments

$$ Utility Bill

Wires Utility

100% Ownership of Systems

17

Sustainable Communities Program

Tax / EquityInvestors

SEUIncentives &

Taxable Bond

Financing

ESCO /RESCO /

Wires Utility

$$ Fees

Green MWH

Sustainable Communities Co (Special Purpose Entity)

NegaWH

$$ Payment

InvestmentReturn

$$ toRevolving Fund

Capital

Participants(tax-exempt & taxable)

US Department of Energy

CENTER OF EXCELLENCE

SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER

UUDD

The City of Dover, Delmarva Power and Delaware’s Sustainable Energy Utility are finalizing an agreement to construct a 10MW solar power plant on the city’s Garrison Oak Technology Park, to be called the Dover SUN Park.

Data Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC)

2008. U.S. Solar Market Trends.

Top ten states by Per capita installed PV capacity

1. California2. Nevada3. Hawaii4. New Jersey5. Colorado6. Arizona7. Connecticut8. Delaware9. Oregon10. VermontUS Average

14.614.210.68.17.74.32.52.22.11.82.7

Cumulative Installed PV Capacity per person (WDC/person in 2008)

TOP TEN

1. DELAWARE*2. California3. Nevada4. Hawaii5. New Jersey6. Colorado7. Arizona8. Connecticut9. Oregon10. VermontUS Average

22.214.614.210.68.17.74.32.52.11.82.7

*Will be 22 WDC/person after 10 MW of PV are installed by the City of Dover and 6 MW of PV by the University of Delaware

Green Jobs: The Sustainable Energy Advantage

Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable

Energy. REPP. 2001.

Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested

ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15

Solar Electric (PV) 15.7

COAL PLANTS 4

RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19

Smart/Green Buildings 14.7

Air Sealing/Insulation 12.0

Solar Thermal 19.0

Wind 11.9

Geothermal 10.5

PV Potential in SeoulPV Potential in Seoul

Total Available Rooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2

Total Available Rooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2

Assumptions: 40% of rooftop area can be used to collect solar energy; PV module efficiency = 14%; Inverter efficiency: 95% Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website.

Assumptions: 40% of rooftop area can be used to collect solar energy; PV module efficiency = 14%; Inverter efficiency: 95% Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website.

2005 City Electricity Use: 40.5 TWh

2005 City Electricity Use: 40.5 TWh

2005 City Peak Demand: 18.8 GW

2005 City Peak Demand: 18.8 GW

Solar Potential Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (25%)

Solar Potential Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (25%)

Solar Potential Peak Shaving: 6.7 GW (36%)

Solar Potential Peak Shaving: 6.7 GW (36%)

900 MW1,354 GWh(14%)

CommercialCommercial

134 MW 201 GWh (2%)

PublicPublic

885 MW 1,330 GWh(13%)

EducationalEducational

67 MW 101 GWh (1%)

IndustrialIndustrial

197 MW 296 GWh (2%)

OtherOther

ResidentialResidential

4,494 MW6,759 GWh(68%)

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model

Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force

Philadelphia February 27, 2009

What can we do today

In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce.

http://www.seu-de.org/

http://ceep.udel.edu/

Retreating Sea Ice

19732003

1992 2002 2005

Source: ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005

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