Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
NEW ENERGY FORNEWWEATHER
NEW ENERGY FORNEWWEATHER
John ByrneJohn Byrne
SOLARENERGYFOCUS CONFERENCEDecember 4, 2009
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)
Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: Climbing Conventional Energy Prices:
U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)U.S. Energy Price Increases
U.S. Energy Price Increases
75%75%
125%125%
150%150%
175%175%
200%200%
225%225%
250%250%
275%275%
300%300%
20002000 20022002 20042004 20062006 20082008 20102010 20122012 20142014 20162016 20182018 20202020
NGNG
GasolineGasoline
Heating OilHeating Oil
ElectricityElectricity
Yr 2000Yr 2000PricePrice
Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)
Energy Expenditures as % of US GDPEnergy Expenditures as % of US GDP
9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs
9.8% of GDP in 2008Highest in 25 yrs
Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
January 31, 2002
February 23, 2002
March 5, 2002
World GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario60% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 2050
World GHG Emissions Reduction ScenarioWorld GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario60% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 205060% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 2050
World CO2 e Per Capita
World CO2 e Per Capita
1990 Annex I Benchmark
1990 Annex I Benchmark
-100%--100%100%
198019801980 200020002000 202020202020 204020402040 210021002100206020602060 208020802080
Annex IAnnex IAnnex I
Non-Annex INonNon--Annex IAnnex I
-80%--80%80%
199019901990
+37%+37%+37%
-60%--60%60%
-40%--40%40%
-20%--20%20%
+20%+20%+20% KyotoKyoto
Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.” In Urban Energy Transition: From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. Droege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27-54. See also Byrne et al (2004) “Reclaiming the atmospheric commons: Beyond Kyoto.” In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science Publishers, Inc.
Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon FootUndoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.print.”” In In Urban Energy Transition: Urban Energy Transition:
From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power.From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. P. DroegeDroege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27--54. See also Byrne et al (2004) 54. See also Byrne et al (2004) ““Reclaiming the atmospheric Reclaiming the atmospheric
commons: Beyond Kyoto.commons: Beyond Kyoto.”” In V.I. Grover (ed.), In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science
Publishers, Inc.Publishers, Inc.
0.00.00.0
5.05.05.0
10.010.010.0
15.015.015.0
20.020.020.0
25.025.025.0199019901990
3.33.3
14.914.914.9
11.911.911.9
8.98.98.9
6.06.06.0
2.22.22.2
0.00.00.0
205020502050
2.02.0
0.00.00.0
16.516.516.5
13.213.213.2
10.010.010.0
6.76.76.7
3.33.33.3
202520252025
2.22.2
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
Estimates of the Technical Potential of Renewable Energy Resources
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
Solar Solar WindWind GeothermalGeothermal BiomassBiomass
Johansson et al (2004), WEC (2000)
de Vries (2007)
Exajoules
Exajoules
01020304050
HydropowerHydropower OceanOcean
Exajoules
Exajoules
* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies.* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies.
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
CSPy = 4661.5x
-0.145
LR=10%
PVy = 5421.5x
-0.331
LR=21%
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0
$/kW
Cumulative Installation (GW)
Windy = 2330.3x
LR=8%
-0.127
EXPERIENCE CURVES FOR SELECTED RENEWABLE ELECTRIC POWER TECHNOLOGIES
Source: Byrne et al. [2009] A Review of Solar Energy Technology, Markets and Policy. Prepared for the Climate Change & Clean Energy Development Research Group, World Bank
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S.State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S.
Sources: CEEP Survey, 2009; DSIRE, 2009
29 states have completed Climate Change Action Planshttp://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/
content/ActionsStateActionPlans.html
34 states and Wash DC have passed legislation
5 states with pendinglegislation
HI: 20% by 2020
MA: 15% by 2020
NY: 24% by 2013
MN: 25% by 2020
TX: 3% by 2009
TX: 3% by 2009
CT: 10% by 2010
ME: 10%
new RE
by 2017
CO: 20%
by 2020
CO: 20%
by 2020Wash DC: 11% by 2022
NJ: 23% by 2021; 2% PV
PA: 18% by 2020
NH: 23% by 2025
AZ: 15% by 2025
AZ: 15% by 2025
NM: 10% by 2011
NM: 10% by 2011
MT: 10% by 2015
MT: 10% by 2015
WA: 15% by 2020
WA: 15% by 2020
OR: 25% by 2025
OR: 25% by 2025
NC: 12.5% by 2021
Delaware: 20% by 2019; 2% PVDelaware: 20% by 2019; 2% PV
IL:25%by2025
IL:25%by2025
NV:20%by2015
NV:20%by2015
CA: 20%
by 20
10
KS: 20% by 2020
KS: 20% by 2020
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Renewables – Approaching Parity
Data Source: Lazard 2008-09; CEEP (forthcoming)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Ener
gy E
fficien
cy
Wind
Coa
l IGCC
NG C
T
LCOE with US IncentivesLevelizedCost per kWh (US cents)
Utility Scale(competes in
Wholesale Market)
LCOE w/o Incentives
Distributed Energy(competes in Retail Market)
Solar T
herm
al
Solar P
V Th
in F
ilm
Solar P
V Cry
stallin
e
Mid-Atlantic Retail Electricity Price
Geo
ther
mal
MUSH: Municipalities (state/local government facilities); Universities; Schools; Hospitals
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800TWh
POLICY OPTIONS TO SERVE 25% OFUS ELECTRICITY DEMAND FROM PV
Center for Energy and Environmental PolicyCenter for Energy and Environmental Policy
‘Green Premium’ of 25 cents/kWh in 2010 & 15 cents/kWh in 2015
Very Efficient PV Modules (42%)
More Efficient PV Modules (28%)
CO2 price of $50/ton
CO2 price of $25/ton
BAU
25% in 2050 25% in 2050
@ 19.5@ 19.5¢¢ / kWh / kWh
((levelizedlevelized))
25% in 2055 25% in 2055
@ 21@ 21¢¢ / kWh / kWh
((levelizedlevelized))25% in 2045 25% in 2045
@ 18@ 18¢¢ / kWh / kWh
((levelizedlevelized))
25% in 2035 25% in 2035
@ 15@ 15¢¢ / kWh / kWh
((levelizedlevelized))
25% in 2025 25% in 2025
@ 11@ 11¢¢ / kWh / kWh
((levelizedlevelized))
Source: John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili, (forthcoming) “The Impact of Policy on PV Industry Growth”In A. Luque & S. Hegedus (eds.) Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering 2nd ed. (NY: Wiley)
14
The Sustainable Energy Utility
• The SEU was fist established by the State of Delaware on June 28, 2007 to:
- Promote, provide and invest in energy efficiency services – Legislated Target: 30% Reduction in energy use by 2020
- Promote, provide and invest in increased deployment of Distributed Renewable Generation – Legislated Target: 10-20% of Electricity Sales from Distributed Renewables by 2020
• The SEU exists as a public/private partnership combining the best of both worlds
- SEU is organized as a non-profit tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization
- Day to day operations are conducted by for-profit companies, non-profits & others specializing in the energy sector
- Eliminates silos and provides solutions throughout the energy spectrum
Old Model New Model
The SEU is a new utility serving the interests of sustainability. It partners with existing utilities while building and investing in a sustainable energy infrastructure.
EducationEducationGasoline/ Diesel
Gasoline/ Diesel
WaterWaterTransportTransportNatural Gas
Natural Gas
ElectricityElectricity
SEULess
Transportation Energy
Less Electricity
Less Heating FuelWater/ Materials
Conservation
Distributed Renewables
Education
Green Buildings/ Green
Neighborhoods
Affordable Energy
http://www.seu-de.org/
•ARRA FUNDS
• RGGI AUCTION PROCEEDS
•TAX BENEFITS/ASSESSMENTS
•GREEN BOND AUTHORITY
•REC & SREC AGGREGATOR
• PUBLIC BENEFITS CHARGES
16
SEU Solar Share Program
SSOLAROLAR SSHAREHARE CCOO(Special Purpose Entity)
Participants
EquityInvestors(recruited by SEU)
By creating a Solar Share program, the SEU can efficiently maximize federal tax benefits, providing participants with lower cost renewable power on a platform that can include distributed & central location formats
SEU
Solar MWH
Incentives &
SREC Floor Pricing
$$ Energy & SREC Payments
$$ Utility Bill
Wires Utility
100% Ownership of Systems
17
Sustainable Communities Program
Tax / EquityInvestors
SEUIncentives &
Taxable Bond
Financing
ESCO /RESCO /
Wires Utility
$$ Fees
Green MWH
Sustainable Communities Co (Special Purpose Entity)
NegaWH
$$ Payment
InvestmentReturn
$$ toRevolving Fund
Capital
Participants(tax-exempt & taxable)
US Department of Energy
CENTER OF EXCELLENCE
SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER
UUDD
The City of Dover, Delmarva Power and Delaware’s Sustainable Energy Utility are finalizing an agreement to construct a 10MW solar power plant on the city’s Garrison Oak Technology Park, to be called the Dover SUN Park.
Data Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC)
2008. U.S. Solar Market Trends.
Top ten states by Per capita installed PV capacity
1. California2. Nevada3. Hawaii4. New Jersey5. Colorado6. Arizona7. Connecticut8. Delaware9. Oregon10. VermontUS Average
14.614.210.68.17.74.32.52.22.11.82.7
Cumulative Installed PV Capacity per person (WDC/person in 2008)
TOP TEN
1. DELAWARE*2. California3. Nevada4. Hawaii5. New Jersey6. Colorado7. Arizona8. Connecticut9. Oregon10. VermontUS Average
22.214.614.210.68.17.74.32.52.11.82.7
*Will be 22 WDC/person after 10 MW of PV are installed by the City of Dover and 6 MW of PV by the University of Delaware
Green Jobs: The Sustainable Energy Advantage
Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable
Energy. REPP. 2001.
Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15
Solar Electric (PV) 15.7
COAL PLANTS 4
RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19
Smart/Green Buildings 14.7
Air Sealing/Insulation 12.0
Solar Thermal 19.0
Wind 11.9
Geothermal 10.5
PV Potential in SeoulPV Potential in Seoul
Total Available Rooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2
Total Available Rooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2
Assumptions: 40% of rooftop area can be used to collect solar energy; PV module efficiency = 14%; Inverter efficiency: 95% Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website.
Assumptions: 40% of rooftop area can be used to collect solar energy; PV module efficiency = 14%; Inverter efficiency: 95% Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website.
2005 City Electricity Use: 40.5 TWh
2005 City Electricity Use: 40.5 TWh
2005 City Peak Demand: 18.8 GW
2005 City Peak Demand: 18.8 GW
Solar Potential Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (25%)
Solar Potential Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (25%)
Solar Potential Peak Shaving: 6.7 GW (36%)
Solar Potential Peak Shaving: 6.7 GW (36%)
900 MW1,354 GWh(14%)
CommercialCommercial
134 MW 201 GWh (2%)
PublicPublic
885 MW 1,330 GWh(13%)
EducationalEducational
67 MW 101 GWh (1%)
IndustrialIndustrial
197 MW 296 GWh (2%)
OtherOther
ResidentialResidential
4,494 MW6,759 GWh(68%)
Center for Energy and Environmental Policy
Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model
Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force
Philadelphia February 27, 2009
What can we do today
In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce.
http://www.seu-de.org/
http://ceep.udel.edu/
Retreating Sea Ice
19732003
1992 2002 2005
Source: ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005