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Mike Sangster, MD, Total E&P Australia speaks at SEAAOC 2012 on Global gas markets and opportunities for Australia. Find out more at http://www.seaaoc.com
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SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
Global gas market trends and opportunities for Australia Mike Sangster, Managing Director, TOTAL E&P Australia
Bontang
Yemen LNG Qatargas 2 Qatargas 1 Adgas Qalhat LNG Oman LNG
GLNG
TOTAL’s LNG portfolio – strong and diversified
Existing LNG plants
LNG projects under construction
LNG projects (FEED or under study)
Existing regasification terminals
Under construction regasification terminals
Ichthys
Snohvit Yamal
Angola LNG
Nigeria LNG T7 Brass LNG
Nigeria LNG T1-T6
Brass LNG Yamal LNG Ichthys GLNG Angola LNG
South Hook
Dunkerque LNG Fos Cavaou
Hazira Sabine Pass
Altamira
2 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
TOTAL’s LNG sales destinations in 2011 (pro rata group share)
2011 flows
Asia61%
Continental Europe
21%
UK9%
Middle East1%
South America
2%
North America
6%
13,25Mt
3 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
13.3Mt
All energy sources are needed to meet global demand
30%
24%
22%
6%
11%
3% 4%
33%
22%
26%
6% 10% 2% 1%
2010 2030(e)
100
300
Mboe/d
200
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
Biomass
Solar, wind, others
Gas
Coal
4
Source: Total estimates
Fossil energies : 76% of the energy mix
Fossil energies : 81% of the energy mix
• Moderate growth of global energy demand (+25% in 20 years)
• Fossil fuels to represent 76% of energy supply in 2030
• Gas to become the second-largest energy source by 2030
• Strong growth but limited contribution of renewable energies
SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
Gas supply / demand Bcf/d
0
30
60
90
2010 2020 2010 2020 2010 2020
Gas demand Domestic supply
Pipeline imports Existing LNG contracts
+1.5% CAGR North America
+1.8% CAGR Europe
+6.2% CAGR Asia
5
+2.5% per year 2010-20 GAS DEMAND
Strong growth in global gas demand led by a booming Asian market
On the demand side, natural gas will secure its position in the electricity mix by being a cleaner, safe, flexible and competitive fuel.
SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
LNG, a growth market with increase in demand = +5% per year between 2010-2020
Strong LNG demand in both traditional and emerging markets
Asian market particularly strong
Complexity of LNG projects increasing tensions on supply
Tightening markets supportive of gas prices in Europe and Asia
Large capital requirements needed to match LNG demand
Global LNG supply / demand
Existing facilities Approved projects
Asian demand
Other demand
400
200
Mt/y
600
LNG supply LNG nominal capacities
2005 2010 2015(e) 2020(e) 2025(e) 2030(e)
~15
~50
~100
LNG supply based on other identified projects
6
Significant gas resources yet to be produced
Gas resources *
Conventional
Unconventional
~15 000 Tcf Unconventional
Conventional
North America 27%
Central & South America 5%
Africa & Middle East 25%
Europe 3%
Asia 17%
FSU 23%
*including yet to find
% Share of world resources
7 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
0
200
400
600
200
400
kboe/d
15(e) 20(e) 10
600
0
100
200
300
400
200
400
kb/d
15(e) 20(e) 10
0
100
200
300
400
200
400
kboe/d
15(e) 20(e) 10
TOTAL E&P global strategy: focus on four key areas
Deep offshore
Largest operator in West Africa in 2012
Heavy oil
Top tier producer by 2020
Unconventional gas
Capitalize on expertise to open new plays
0
200
400
600
200
400
kboe/d
15(e) 20(e) 10
600
Targeting growth and technological segments
LNG
2nd largest player
SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 8
Ichthys & Gladstone LNG projects
Total 30%, INPEX 66.07% (operator) Production: 8.4 mtpa of LNG, 100 kb/d of condensates, 1.6 mtpa of LPG Long-term off-take contracts with oil linked price formula FID Jan 2012, start-up end-2016
Gladstone LNG plant
Ichthys
Darwin
Ichthys pipeline
9 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
Total 27.5%, Santos 30% (operator), Petronas 27.5%, KOGAS 15% Production: 7.2 mtpa of LNG FID Jan 2011, start-up 2015
Total non-operated
DARWIN
ICHTHYS
Bonaparte
Browse
100 km Total operated
WA-402/403P Total 60 % (op.) Petronas 40%
WA-408 Total 100% (op.)
WA-285P (Ichthys) Total 30%
Inpex 66.07% (op.)
WA 341/343/344 Total 40%
Inpex 60% (op.)
7 offshore exploration permits in Australia
10 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
Will Australia capitalise on next LNG wave?
Continued strong demand for LNG, especially in Asia, and Australia is ideally placed to provide supply TOTAL is pleased to be part of Australia’s LNG success We want to be part of the Australia’s LNG future High cost of doing business remains a concern, given there will be increased competition from other origins
SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012 11
Disclaimer and copyright reservation
The TOTAL GROUP is defined as TOTAL S.A. and its affiliates and shall include the party making the presentation.
Disclaimer This presentation may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 with respect to the financial condition, results of operations, business, strategy and plans of Total that are subject to risk factors and uncertainties caused by changes in, without limitation, technological development and innovation, supply sources, legal framework, market conditions, political or economic events.
Total does not assume any obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Further information on factors which could affect the company’s financial results is provided in documents filed by the Group with the French Autorité des Marchés Financiers and the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Accordingly, no reliance may be placed on the accuracy or correctness of any such statements. Copyright All rights are reserved and all material in this presentation may not be reproduced without the
express written permission of the Total Group.
12 SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
SEAAOC, 19th September, 2012
Thank you