Election 2009 Predictions

ENAM Securities India Research

General Elections 2009 Ver 2.0

FLA

SH N

OTE

ENAM Research is available on Bloomberg (ENAM <Go>), Reuters.com and Firstcall.com 15 April 2009

COUNTDOWN TO THE BIG FIGHT BEGINS! Poll Projections for Lok Shaba Elections 09 Coalition Enam TOI DNA India Today NDTV*UPA 209 198 184 191‐200 192‐228NDA 171 176 177 172‐181 151‐1803rd Front 144 109 182^ 169‐178 125‐152Source: Enam Research, Media; Note: Inclusions of parties in various fronts vary in these projections. ^In DNA projections 3rd Front includes independents. *Based on Sample size of 51390

A Coalition Government with Congress leading the formation (UPA led coalition) or providing support from the outside seems the most likely outcome..

A market crash is unlikely since the worst fears (3rd front with no support of national party) should not materialize. However, though a weak UPA Coalition may be Durable, it is unlikely to be Decisive and thus won’t inspire confidence to spark a major upturn in the markets.

Thus, post‐elections, market should move loosely linked to weight of global liquidity (as witnessed of late), and anticipating fundamental changes and pricing in a delayed / slower growth environment. Near term, anxiety of time taken for government‐formation post‐elections, could flutter markets.

Sadly, all this probably translates into another opportunity lost, for India to attract disproportionate fund flows.

Election phases: Refer last page: Elections would be in 5 phases starting April 16, and all counting on a single day, ie May 16.

(Glossary on page 12 alphabetically provides full names of party abbreviations & names of their leadersalongside. Note INC= Cong).

Source: Cartoon by Rajinder Puri

Economist: Sachchidanand Shukla Email: [email protected] Tel: 9122 6754 7648

Head Research: Nandan Chakraborty Email: [email protected] Tel: 9122 6754 7601

Abhinav Vohra Email: [email protected] Tel: 9122 6754 7631

Source: TOI


APRIL 2009 ENAM Securities 2

Government formation itself may take a month or more post‐elections, as parties jostle for alliances, and subsequently ministerial positions, increasing market‐uncertainty during that period. In high‐impact situations, the impact on eventuation can be worse than pre‐event probability‐based fears.

What investors will test at that phase, even more than WHO are the leading ministers (which are often on consensus v/s the one most competent), is the DURABILITY of the Government. Investors/ Corporates, if fearful of the Government’s durability, will not commit resources to bite into any programs unleashed by the new Government, getting the country into a self‐feeding downward spiral of INR depreciation, etc. And a Government fearful of its durability, especially in such a worsening global environment, can introduce policies which can pump in monies which translate into more immediate Consumption kickers (for example more Rural doleouts; also refer the following table) & not jeopardize their political chances. This would contrast the more usual new‐Government’s Investment‐oriented policies which raise India’s trajectory, but have a gestation period.

Extra fiscal cost: ~Rs 230 bn if Congress elected & ~Rs 580 bn for a BJP‐led government, from their manifestos. (Salt‐note: these are after all, based on pre‐poll Promises) SOP/ Party

What’s on offer Annual fiscal cost (Rs bn)

Rice/ Wheat for Below Poverty Line families Congress 25kg/ mth at Rs 3/ kg 97BJP 35kg/ mth at Rs 2/ kg 210Farm loans Congress Higher interest subsidy 65BJP Loans at 4% interest 80For youth's sake Congress Scholarships for 0.1 mn SC/ ST students, skill development 70BJP Student loans at 4% interest, project for sporting talent 40Tax relief Congress None NILBJP Hike in exemption limit to Rs 0.3 mn 250Source: Media

Scenario Analysis: Refer page 4: We have projected seat‐counts for the 3 major fronts & their potential allies/ combinations post‐elections. While we hope for scenarios 1 & 2 (Majority BJP/ Congress), the more likely scenario is 3 (weak UPA coalition). If that too doesn’t eventuate, we have projected desperate post‐election scenario 4. 1. Majority NDA= BJP+ allies forming a Government: Looks Remote. 2. Majority UPA= Congress+ allies: Only if the Congress can swing atleast 30 more seats from BJP

strongholds, can it, alongwith existing allies, come within striking distance (245+) of forming a strong coalition, by inducting a miscellany of minor parties post‐elections – Looks difficult!

3. Weak UPA Coalition: If the Congress gets only 140, then UPA can induct newer allies, but would have to sacrifice corresponding 2004 allies who may be state rivals – Most likely: Maybe Durable but Indecisive.

4. Desperate Scenarios: If any of the above can’t eventuate: a) 3F tries to form a Government with outside support from Congress/ BJP. Or b) NDA with outside support of BSP+ TDP. Or c) An even weaker UPA coalition, with Outside support of Left. But a Re‐election in a year or two can not be ruled out in such cases: Non‐Durable + Indecisive.



The General Elections are likely to be a multi‐dimensional fight: 1) Congress vs BJP 2) Congress vs Regional and 3) Regional Party Slugfest. Following table provides the no of seats being contested in each State, i.e. the potential addressable opportunity for each party. For Maharashtra, out of the total 42 constituencies, 26 seats are contested between Congress & BJP and 22 seats between NCP & Shiv Sena. And in Orissa, out of 21, 13 seats are contested between Congress & BJD while the rest between Congress & BJP.

Multi‐dimensional fight in 2009 – Addressable opportunity for Cong/ BJP= 333/ 193 only Direct fight Congress vs BJP Congress vs Regional Regional parties’ slugfest

State No of seats*

State No of seats*

State No of seats*

Madhya Pradesh 29 Andhra Pradesh (Congress vs TDP / Praja Rajyam)

42 UP (BSP vs SP) 80

Karnataka 28 Kerala (Congress vs Left) 20 Bihar & Jharkhand (JDU vs RJD + LJP)

54

Gujarat 26 Orissa (Congress vs BJD) 13 Tamil Nadu (AIDMK vs DMK)

39

Rajasthan 25 Punjab (Congress vs SAD) 13 Maharashtra (NCP vs Shiv Sena)

22

Maharashtra 26 Haryana (Congress vs HVP) 10 Others 15

N E states + Sikkim 15

Chhattisgarh 11 W Bengal (Congress + Trinamool Congress vs Left)

42

Delhi 7

Others* 26

Total 193 140 210Source: ENAM Research Note: Others of 26 in column 1= Orissa (8), Uttaranchal (5), HP (4), Goa (2), Union Territories (7).

Of the total of 543 seats, a simple majority of 272 is required to form a Government. Thus, either of the national parties BJP/ Congress, along with their core allies, needs to garner atleast 170 ‐ 200 seats. Thus, the growing influence of regional parties, and hence a Coalition Government is an inevitability.

Hence, we have made a Scenario exercise of the prospects of how the 3 groups (NDA, UPA & 3F) could form coalition governments/ alliances/ outside support. Please refer table on next page:

The 1st category of Core allies are the current pre‐election groupings. A 2nd set of Extended allies are possible alignments (pre & post elections) which are ideologically stable

configurations, though not as committed as the above Core set. Governments formed by the above 2 sets are likely to be decisive & durable.

The 3rd set is a Scenario analysis of Swings in parties of the 2nd set, ONLY in order to form a Government. While these combinations may not be ideologically in conflict, they have rarely come together in the past due to state rivalry. Such set has a chance of durability, but with little decisiveness.

The 4th set is the final Scenario analysis of Desperate combinations if none of the above eventuate, where parties in ideological conflict come together (or rather, “Clash to power”). Both durability and decisiveness are suspect)

Notes: State‐swings: Due to MNS’ emergence in Maharashtra, NCP could gain beyond our projections out of split

votes in SS & BJP. In UP, Kalyan Singh’s inclusion in SP to garner more Hindu votes could lose its traditional Muslim votes. Note Chiranjeevi has launched a new party Praja Rajyam in AP with no particular ideological stance, which could ally with any combination post‐elections.

Average seats won: The averages (high, low) of seats won by major parties in the 6 General elections since 1989 are: BJP 145 (182, 120), Cong 163 (244, 114) & Left 42 (53, 28).



Scenario Analysis for General Election 2009

Extended Allies (Pre/Post Elections)

Core Allies (Pre‐elections)

Swing Possibilities/Outside Support

NDA

171 209 144

231 >272 199

Total (Core + Extended)

Total (Core + Extended + Swing)

UPA 3rd Front

Desperate Combin‐ations

>272 >272 >272Total(Core + Ext + Swing+ Desp)

AIADMK 30AIADMK (in l ieu of DMK)

27 NCP 15

BJD (Outs ide)

5 TDP 20 RJD 15

NCP (Outs ide)

15 BSP (in l ieu of SP)

25 JDU (in l ieu of RJD)

15

Praja Rajyam

10 10 Praja Rajyam

10 10 Praja Rajyam 10

Total 60 Total 82 Total 55

BSP (Outs ide)

40 10 JDU (in l ieu of RJD)

15 Cong. / BJP (Outs ide)

140

TDP (Outs ide)

20 10 Communist 35


Party Seat Proj.09

Range (+/‐)

Existing Seats

Party Seat Proj.09

Range (+/‐)

Existing Seats

Party Seat Proj.09

Range (+/‐)

Existing Seats

BJP 125 15 138 Congress 140 25 145 Communis t 35 15 51

Shiv Sena 10 5 12 TC 10 5Other Core (TRS, RSP, AIFB, JDS)

10 5 15

Other Core 6 5 12Total 141 162 Total 150 145 Total 45 66

JD(U) 30 15 6 RJD 15 10 24 TDP 20 10 5DMK 3 5 17 AIADMK 30 10 0NCP 15 5 9 BJD 5 5 11SP 15 10 36 PMK 4 5 6Others 11 10 16 BSP 40 10 19

Total 30 6 Total 59 102 Total 99 41

Extended Allies (Pre/Post Elections)

Core Allies (Pre‐elections)

Swing Possibilities/Outside Support

NDA

171 209 144

231 >272 199

Total (Core + Extended)

Total (Core + Extended + Swing)

UPA 3rd Front

Desperate Combin‐ations

>272 >272 >272Total(Core + Ext + Swing+ Desp)

AIADMK 30AIADMK (in l ieu of DMK)

27 NCP 15

BJD (Outs ide)

5 TDP 20 RJD 15

NCP (Outs ide)

15 BSP (in l ieu of SP)

25 JDU (in l ieu of RJD)

15

Praja Rajyam

10 10 Praja Rajyam

10 10 Praja Rajyam 10


BSP (Outs ide)

40 10 JDU (in l ieu of RJD)

15 Cong. / BJP (Outs ide)

140

TDP (Outs ide)

20 10 Communist 35


Party Seat Proj.09

Range (+/‐)

Existing Seats

Party Seat Proj.09

Range (+/‐)

Existing Seats

Party Seat Proj.09

Range (+/‐)

Existing Seats

BJP 125 15 138 Congress 140 25 145 Communis t 35 15 51

Shiv Sena 10 5 12 TC 10 5Other Core (TRS, RSP, AIFB, JDS)

10 5 15

Other Core 6 5 12Total 141 162 Total 150 145 Total 45 66

JD(U) 30 15 6 RJD 15 10 24 TDP 20 10 5DMK 3 5 17 AIADMK 30 10 0NCP 15 5 9 BJD 5 5 11SP 15 10 36 PMK 4 5 6Others 11 10 16 BSP 40 10 19

Total 30 6 Total 59 102 Total 99 41

Source: ENAM Research

The rest of this note is structured as follows: 1. Possible Ministerial Portfolios in case neither National Party wins strong 2. Dynamics in key States 3. State‐wise Party‐tallies: Our Projections, 2004 tallies,

(Separate Excel attached to this report, where these projections feed into the above Scenario table; you can play around using your estimates to automatically reconstruct the above Scenario table)

Appendices: Profiles of King‐makers, Election trends of major national parties, Glossary Election schedule



Possible Ministerial Portfolios in case neither National Party wins strong Weak UPA Coalition: If the Congress gets only 140, then UPA can get in AIADMK (sacrificing DMK), BSP (sacrificing SP) and TDP, to form a coalition Government:

Composition of Ministry Party Proj Seats Leader Portfolio

Congress 140 Sonia Gandhi Nominates PM, FM, External Affairs, Commerce

TC 10 Mamata Banerjee Labor

RJD 15 Lalu Prasad Yadav Railways/Coal

NCP 15 Sharad Pawar Industry/ Agriculture

AIADMK 30 Jayalalithaa Telecom, CM of TN

BSP 40 Mayawati Power

TDP 20 C Naidu Foreign Minister

Others 11

Total 281


3rd Front: 3F tries to form a Government swinging in NCP, & with outside support from Congress/ BJP:

Composition of Ministry Party Proj Seats Leader Portfolio

BSP 40 Mayawati Finance, Power

Left 35 P Karat Labor, Home

AIADMK 30 Jayalalithaa Telecom, Transport

TDP 20 C Naidu External. Affairs

NCP 15 Sharad Pawar PM

Congress / BJP 140 Sonia Gandhi / L.K Advani

Total 280


Incase 3F forms a Government; both Sharad Pawar and Chandrababu Naidu could be PM candidate, depending on who the 3rd takes outside support from. Congress would prefer its old NCP ally while BJP would be more comfortable with Chandrababu Naidu who on an individual party level has had no ideological differences with them.

Source: Cartoons by Prasad R.



State‐wise slugfest: The states with >30 of seats are Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, West Bengal & Andhra Pradesh. In West Bengal, the Left has weakened considerably, given the progressively worsening conditions of Bengali Muslims & especially after Nandigram & Nuke opposition, which will benefit the TMC & Congress. Accordingly, deal makers would emerge from regional slug‐fests and thus, the key states to watch out in the upcoming elections would be leaders of the above other states.

Key States of Deal Makers

54JD1989

83INC1984

35

29

57

52

51

Seats Won

SP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

54JD1989

83INC1984

35

29

57

52

51

Seats Won

SP

BJP

BJP

BJP

BJP

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

39INC1989

30TDP1984

29

29

21

22

25

Seats Won

INC

TDP

INC

INC

INC

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

39INC1989

30TDP1984

29

29

21

22

25

Seats Won

INC

TDP

INC

INC

INC

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

27INC1989

25INC1984

16

12

18

20

28

Seats Won

DMK

DMK

AIADMK

TMCM

INC

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

27INC1989

25INC1984

16

12

18

20

28

Seats Won

DMK

DMK

AIADMK

TMCM

INC

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

32JD1989

48INC1984

22

23

20

22

31

Seats Won

RJD

BJP

BJP

JD

JD

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

32JD1989

48INC1984

22

23

20

22

31

Seats Won

RJD

BJP

BJP

JD

JD

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

28INC1989

43INC1984

13

15

33

18

38

Seats Won

BJP

SS

INC

BJP

INC

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

28INC1989

43INC1984

13

15

33

18

38

Seats Won

BJP

SS

INC

BJP

INC

Party

2004

1999

1998

1996

1991

Yr

UPBihar

Maha

Karnataka

Kerala TN

AP

OrissaChhattisgarh

WB WBMPGuj

RajDelhi

Punj

ARP

Assam

Uttarkhand

J&K

HP

Haryana

Source: Election Commission

Uttar Pradesh (UP). (80 seats) Key fight – BSP vs. SP + Cong: Mayawati of BSP should garner 40‐60 seats (from state election trends) making her the Queenie deal‐maker. No CORE ideological/ economic/ foreign policy differences with BJP/ Congress, on an individual party level. Hence, on an individual party level, she could comfortably ally with either. BSP would prefer a Congress alliance since Left (her 3rd front ally) and dalit muslims (her significant vote bank) have ideological conflict with BJP. SP’s gaining significantly looks bleak after the inclusion of Kalyan Singh from BJP which could swing its muslim votes to BSP.

Tamil Nadu (TN) (39 seats) Key fight – AIADMK vs DMK: This state has consistently shown the trend that it is a 1 or 0 game between the two parties. DMK is looking weak after 14 MPs resigned in October 2008, demanding an end to the violence against civilians in Sri‐Lanka. Also, 40% of urban TN is severely hit by the current economic slowdown, raising anti‐incumbency potential. AIADMK would be open to provide support



to BJP/ Congress/ 3rd front. It broke its alliance with BJP & joined with Congress during the ’99 elections, re‐joined with BJP during ‘04 elections, but didn’t remain aligned, post‐defeat.

Maharashtra (48 seats) Key fight – BJP + SS vs Cong + NCP: The key battle to watch out for would be between NCP and Shiv Sena. NCP is expected to gain (15‐20 seats vs 9) and more importantly, enjoy the split vote share of the Shiv Sena camp after the emergence of MNS from Shiv Sena cadres. This would make Sharad Pawar a key swing potential as his earlier fallout with Congress shows that his national ambitions are far greater than extended support as a congressman.

Andhra Pradesh (AP) (42 seats) Key fight – TDP vs Congress: Congress can’t better its 2004 stellar performance due to the Satyam episode the land‐scam (Maytas/ DMRC), which tarnishes its clean Government image. Chandrababu Naidu (TDP) remains strong especially in its urban strongholds + making massive efforts in rural AP to make good his earlier debacle. He could garner ~30 seats and & is unlikely to tie up with its erstwhile ally BJP after its 2005 splat (at least for now) – though it COULD swing in with the Congress too, despite his anti‐Congress electoral platform.

Bihar/ Jharkhand (54 seats) Key fight – JDU vs RJD: JDU should gain significantly (30‐45 seats) due to Nitesh Kumar’s “for the people/ state” Narendra Modi ‐ like projection among the people. He is extending his vote‐bank among Dalit & Muslim constituencies, traditionally LP Yadav (RJD) strongholds. Although JDU has been a staunch BJP ally, it has no core ideological differences with Congress/ 3rd front, making Nitesh Kumar another important post‐election deal maker.

Source: Cartoon by Unnikrishnan



Projections for 09: State‐wise party tallies NDA UPA 3rd Front

Core

Exte

nded

Core

Exte

nded

Core

Exte

nded

Others

BJP

Shiv

Sen

a

SAD

AIT

C

MN

F

NPF

JD(U

)

Cong

ress

T C

RJD

DM

K

NCP

SP

KEC

RPI‐A

SDF

JKN

JMM

AG

P

CPM

CPI

TRS

RSP

AIF

B

JD(S

)

TDP

AID

MK

BJD

PMK

BSP

Oth

ers

Praj

a Ra

jyam

Tota

l

A&N Islands 1 1

AP 8 2 20 2 10 42

Arun. Pradesh 2 2

Assam 2 9 2 1 14

Bihar 2 25 3 10 40

Chandigarh 1 1

Chhattisgarh 10 1 11

Daman & Diu 1 1

Delhi 1 6 7

DNH 1 1

Goa 1 1 2

Gujarat 20 6 26

Haryana 10 10

HP 1 3 4

J & K 2 2 2 6

Jharkhand 5 5 4 14

Karnataka 10 15 3 28

Kerala 1 12 3 1 3 20

Lakshadweep 1 1

MP 20 9 29

Maharashtra 10 10 12 15 1 48

Manipur 2 2

Meghalaya 1 1 2

Mizoram 1 1

Nagaland 1 1

Orissa 10 6 5 21

Pondicherry 1 1

Punjab 3 2 8 13

Rajasthan 21 4 25

Sikkim 1 1

TN 3 3 30 3 39

Tripura 2 2

UP 10 15 15 40 80

Uttaranchal 2 3 5

WB 1 12 10 12 3 2 2 42

Total 125 10 2 2 1 1 30 140 10 15 3 15 15 1 1 1 2 4 2 29 6 2 2 2 4 20 30 5 4 40 9 10 543

Coalition NDA UPA 3rd Front Others Total 171 209 144 19 Source: Election Commission, ENAM Research



State‐wise party tallies in the 2004 elections NDA UPA 3rd Front

Core

Exte

nded

Core

Exte

nded

Core

Exte

nded

Others

BJP

Shiv

Sen

a

SAD

AIT

C

MN

F

NPF

JD(U

)

Cong

ress

RJD

DM

K

NCP

SP

KEC

RPI‐A

SDF

JKN

JMM

LJN

S

AG

P

CPM

CPI

TRS

RSP

AIF

B

JD(S

)

TDP

BJD

PMK

BSP

Ind

+ O

ther

s

MD

MK

RLD

Tota

l

A&N Islands 1 1

AP 29 5 5 3 42

Arun. Pradesh 2 2

Assam 2 9 2 1 14

Bihar 5 5 3 22 4 1 40

Chandigarh 1 1


Daman & Diu 1 1

Delhi 1 6 7

DNH 1 1

Goa 1 1 2

Gujarat 14 12 26

Haryana 1 9 10

HP 1 3 4

J & K 2 2 2 6

Jharkhand 1 6 2 4 1 14

Karnataka 18 8 2 28

Kerala 1 12 3 1 3 20

Lakshadweep 1 1

MP 25 4 29

Maharashtra 13 12 13 9 1 48

Manipur 1 1 2

Meghalaya 1 1 2

Mizoram 1 1

Nagaland 1 1

Orissa 7 2 1 11 21

Pondicherry 1 1

Punjab 3 8 2 13

Rajasthan 21 4 25

Sikkim 1 1

TN 10 16 2 2 5 4 39

Tripura 2 2

UP 10 9 35 19 4 3 80

Uttaranchal 3 1 1 5

WB 1 6 26 3 3 3 42

Total 138 12 8 2 1 1 6 145 24 17 9 36 1 1 1 2 5 4 2 42 9 5 3 3 4 5 11 6 19 14 4 3 543

Coalition NDA UPA 3rd Front Others Total 168 247 107 21 Source: Election Commission, ENAM Research



APPENDICES The Probable King makers of 2009! Mayawati (BSP): Reigning Queen in the key state of UP which boasts of 80 seats – the largest in the country.

Since the 2004 general election wherein her party won only 19 seats, Mayawati's fortunes have soared. In the last state assembly elections a little over a year ago, BSP swept to power, winning 206 of the 403 seats and more importantly, had leads in 55 of the state's 80 parliamentary constituencies. Her party also polled well in at least 60 parliamentary seats outside Uttar Pradesh, making her a pan‐Indian Dalit icon of sorts. The upshot is that her party has become a factor in about 10 states and now has MLAs in Bihar, Rajasthan, Chhhattisgarh, Haryana and Uttarakhand. It commands the fourth biggest share (5.3 %) of the national vote higher than the SP's 4.3 % and slightly lower than the CPM's 5.7 %.

In UP, BSP relentlessly expanded its vote‐share and seats from 9.4% and 11 seats in 1989, to 11.1% and 67 in 1993, to 19.6 % and 67 in 1996, to 23.2 % and 98 in 2002 & an even more impressive 30.5 % vote share and 206 of 403 seats to became UP's first party to win a majority in 17 years. It made substantial gains among the OBCs and broke into the SP's traditional Muslim base with 26 Muslim MLAs vs. the SP's 21.

J Jayalalithaa (AIADMK): or Amma as she is popularly known has supported both the Congress and the BJP at different times at the centre. In the May 2007 Legislative assembly elections Jayalalitha's AIADMK suffered a defeat at the hands of the DMK‐led Democratic Progressive Alliance although she herself managed to get elected. She is also known as an administrator willing to take unpopular decisions.

Sharad Pawar (NCP): The ambitious ex‐Congress man and now the President of the NCP moved back to state level politics scene after his fall out from the Congress Party. He refused to accept Sonia Gandhi as the Congress party leader and chose to move back to state level politics. While Pawar’s NCP is an ally of the Congress in the UPA government, he may be open for partnering with others in future.

Chandrababu Naidu (TDP): Before the tables turned he was the only Indian politician to have made it to the list of “dream cabinet” for the Time magazine. Widely known for his modern outlook to administration he has been the Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh for two times in a row. Naidu’s style of working is more like that of a CEO than a quintessential politician. A firm believer in using technology to help the common man he prefers the state to be run professionally as an organization rather than as a bureaucracy saddled with red‐tape.

Nitish Kumar (JD‐U): In him, Lalu Prasad Yadav (RJD) met his waterloo in assembly elections in 2005. He has a combination of realpolitik and an intuitive grasp of socialist politics prevalent in Bihar that is pivoted on caste and Bihari sub‐ nationalism.

He has been a key ally of the NDA and BJP will have to keep him in good humour for a post‐poll alliance. If the BJP fails to retain his faith post‐elections, JDU, which is likely to improve significantly to his 2004 tally of 7 seats may emerge as a key king maker.



Election Trend: Votes Polled by INC

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004

(Nos)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50(%)

Seats Contested Seats WonVote Share (RHS)


Election Trend: Votes Polled by BJP

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004

(Nos)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30(%)



Election Trend: Votes Polled by Left (CPM + CPI)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1984 1989 1991 1996 1998 1999 2004

(Nos)

5.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.59.09.5

(%)



Average seats won since 1989: 163 (Hi: 244, Low: 114)

Major vote share loss after 1984 due to the emergence of BJP as a national party


BJP has been steadily losing vote share since last two elections.




Glossary Abbreviation Full term Leader AIADMK All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Jayalalithaa Jayaram

AGP Asom Gana Parishad Chandra Mohan Patowary

AIFB All India Forward Bloc D.D. Shastri

AIMIM All India Majlis‐E‐Ittehadul Muslimmen Asaduddin Owaisi

AITC All India Trinamool Congress Mamata Banerjee

BJD Biju Janata Dal Naveen Patnaik

BJP Bharatiya Janata Party Rajnath Singh

BNP Bharatiya Navshakti Party Delkar Mohanbhai Sanjibhai.

BSP Bahujan Samaj Party Mayawati Kumari

CPI Communist Party of India A. B. Bardhan

CPI (M) Communist Party of India (Marxist) Prakash Karat

DMK Dravid Munnetra Kazhagam M .Karunanidhi

EC Election Commission N. Gopalaswami

FPM Federal Party of Manipur Gangmumei Kamei

HVP Haryana Vikas Party Bansi Lal

INC Indian National Congress Sonia Gandhi

INLD Indian National Lok Dal Om Prakash Chautala

JD (U) Janata Dal (United) Nitish Kumar

JD (S) Janata Dal (Secular) H. D. Deve Gowda

JKN Jammu & Kashmir National Conference Omar Abdullah

JMM Jharkhand Mukti Morcha Shibu Soren

J&KPDP Jammu & Kashmir Peoples Democratic Party Ms Mehbooba Mufti,

KEC Kerala Congress K. M. George

LJSP Lok Jan Shakti Party Ram Vilas Paswan

MDMK Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Vaiko

MLKSC Muslim League Kerala State Committee E. Ahmed

MNF Mizo National Front Pu Zoramthanga

MNS Maharashtra Navnirman Sena Raj Thackeray

NCP Nationalist Congress Party Sharad Pawar

NDA National Democratic Alliance Atal Bihari Vajpayee

NPF Nagaland Peoples Front Dr. Shürhozelie

PMK Pattali Makkal Katchi K .Mani

PRP Praja Rajyam Party Chiranjeevi

RJD Rashtriya Janata Dal Lalu Prasad Yadav

RLD Rashtriya Lok Dal Ajit Singh

RSP Revolutionary Socialist Party T. J. Chandrachoodan

SAD Shiromani Akali Dal Parkash Singh Badal

SAD (M) Shiromani Akali Dal (SS Mann) Simranjit Singh Mann

SAP Samata Party Nitish Kumar / George Fernandes

SDF Sikkim Democratic Front Pawan Kumar Chamling

SP Samajwadi Party Mulayam Singh Yadav

SS Shiv Sena Uddhav Thackeray

TDP Telegu Desam Party N. Chandrababu Naidu

TRS Telangana Rashtra Samithi K. Chandrashekar Rao

UPA United Progressive Alliance Sonia Gandhi


Election related websites 1) www.eci.gov.in/ 2) www.myneta.info/ 3) http://ibnlive.in.com/politics/

3) www.google.co.in/intl/en/landing/loksabha2009/ 4) www.jaagore.com/ 5) http://ceo.maharashtra.gov.in/

Gen Elections 2009


Election 09 Schedule: Counting to take place / completed on 16th May Const PH Poll dates, constituency

16‐Apr 23‐Apr 30‐Apr 7‐May 13‐May

Ph1 Ph2 Ph3 Ph4 Ph5

AP 42 2 22 20

Arun. P 2 1 2

Assam 14 2 3 11

Bihar 40 4 13 13 11 3

Goa 2 1 2

Gujarat 26 1 26

Haryana 10 1 10

HP 4 1 4

J&K 6 5 1 1 1 1 2

Karnataka 28 2 17 11

Kerala 20 1 20

MP 29 2 13 16

Maharashtra 48 3 13 25 10

Manipur 2 2 1 1

Meghalaya 2 1 2

Mizoram 1 1 1

Nagaland 1 1 1

Orissa 21 2 10 11

Const PH Poll dates, constituency

16‐Apr 23‐Apr 30‐Apr 7‐May 13‐May

Ph1 Ph2 Ph3 Ph4 Ph5

Punjab 13 2 4 9

Rajasthan 25 1 25

Sikkim 1 1 1

TN 39 1 39

Tripura 2 1 2

UP 80 5 16 17 15 18 14

WB 42 3 14 17 11


Jharkhand 14 2 6 8

Uttarakhand 5 1 5

A & N 1 1 1

Chandigarh 1 1 1

DNH 1 1 1

D & Diu 1 1 1

Delhi 7 1 7

Lakshadweep 1 1 1

Puducherry 1 1 1

Source: Election Commission;

Note: Const = Constituencies that each state fields, PH = Phases, which are divided into 5. Constituencies within each state will vote on the phases/dates allocated to it.

This document is provided for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice, and nothing in this document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in this document. The intent of this document is not in recommendary nature

Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. The investment discussed or views expressed may not be suitable for all investors

Enam Securities Private Limited has not independently verified all the information given in this document. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this document

The Disclosures of Interest Statement incorporated in this document is provided solely to enhance the transparency and should not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. The Company reserves the right to make modifications and alternations to this statement as may be required from time to time without any prior approval

Enam securities Private Limited, its affiliates, their directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report. Each of these entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. The recipient should take this into account before interpreting the document

This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through analysis of ENAM Securities Private Limited. The views expressed are those of analyst and the Company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed therein

This document is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. Neither this document nor any copy of it may be taken or transmitted into the United State (to U.S.Persons), Canada, or Japan or distributed, directly or indirectly, in the United States or Canada or distributed or redistributed in Japan or to any resident thereof. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions

Neither the Firm, not its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information.

Copyright in this document vests exclusively with ENAM Securities Private Limited.

News & Politics

Election 2009 Predictions