Analysis of voting patterns in 2008

•Nat/ACT/MP/UF 51.84% of the vote

•Lab/Green/Prog 45.69% of the vote

•Difference of 6.15% or about 150,000 votes

Nat/ACT/MP/UF51.84%

Lab/Green/Prog45.69%

Only 6.15% difference!

95.31% eligible voters enrolled

4.69% eligible voters did not enrol

20.54% people enrolled but did not vote

enrolled but did not vote

600,000

not

enrolled

150,000

first time voters

?

The key to getting a worker friendly government• Enrol our people and their families (350,000 union members are affiliated to the CTU)

• Get them out to vote on Nov 26

• Note that - Currently about 10% of people eligible to vote are not enrolled BUT up to 15% of some of our union members are not enrolled.

It’s closer than we think – a different way of reading the pollsHorizon poll July 22, 2011– National has 10.2% more support than Labour. However,

it's a different story when coalition support is tallied.

– The governing National, Act, Maori Party, United Future coalition would secure 44.3% support.

– A Labour, Green, New Zealand First, Mana coalition is ahead on 45.6% ( 7.6% undecided & 1.6% other)

Lab/Green/NZ1/Mana45.6%

Nat/ACT/MP/UF44.3%

Don’t Know7.6%

Other1.6%

worke

r frie

ndly

Horizon poll July 22, 2011

enrolled but did not vote

600,000

not

enrolled

150,000

first time voters

?