2015-2016 Elections in Africa:Between Anxieties and Hopes for Democracy on the Continent

Dieudonné N. TSHIYOYO, Regional Electoral Advisor, UNDP RSC Africa

Outline of the presentation

Democracy and Elections in Africa: Recent Trends, Gains and Challenges

Electoral Cycle

2015-2016 Elections in Africa

Concluding notes

Democracy and Elections in Africa (1)

Elections are instruments of democracy to the degree that they give the people influence over

policy making (Powell 2000).

The very purpose of elections is to achieve participatory governance without violence—through

political rather than physical competition.

One of the fundamental roles of elections is the evaluation of the incumbent government –

Citizens use elections to reward or punish the incumbents.

Democratization in Africa: Independence (1950-1960) – Military and/or monopartite regimes (1960-

1990) – End of the Cold War and democratic transitions (1990–2000).

Multi-party politics and elections.

Democracy and Elections in Africa (2)

Democracy and Elections in Africa (3)

Democracy and Elections in Africa (4)

Africa’s experience with electoral democracy has been mixed: progress has been made, but

challenges remain.

In the broadest of terms, Sub-Saharan Africa is certainly more democratic and holds more free

and fair elections today than several decades ago, but gains in some countries have been offset

by losses in others, while a number have remained democratically stagnant since independence.

To understand recent trends in African elections, it is helpful to examine individual countries

along with those others that have shared similar experiences and will thus face similar challenges

and opportunities in the coming years.

These various electoral experiences can serve as positive examples or critical warnings to other

countries in Africa and can help the international community to more effectively engage with

elections across Africa by learning from past failures and successes.

Democracy and Elections in Africa (5)

Electoral Cycle

Elections in Africa – Mixed Gains and Success (1)

South Africa, Botswana, Mauritius, Zambia and Ghana, success stories. Risk of reversal? Mali effect!!!

Positive changes in a number of countries – Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Togo, and Zimbabwe – came as a result of elections, though they were often flawed or overshadowed by erosion on other issues.

KENYAThe March 2014 Presidential and Parliamentary elections were generally deemed more credible than the previous polls in December 2007, despite serious tabulation problems and many disputed ballots.A formal challenge to the presidential victory of Uhuru Kenyatta by runner-up Raila Odinga was addressed in the courts, rather than through ethnic clashes as in 2007–2008.

ZIMBABWERobert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF secured victory in the July 2013 national elections. After using brutal violence to retain the presidency in the 2008, Mugabe and his political allies took a more subtle approach in 2013, in shaping an uneven playing field well before election day.MDC weakness and internal struggle

Elections in Africa – Mixed Gains and Success (2)

MALI

Military coup in March 2012, a month just the presidential poll and a rebellion in the north.

Combined with security improvements in the northern region, the 2013 elections helped the

country along the path to recover.

ZAMBIA

Two sick presidents dying in office in the last decades (Levy Mwanawasa and Michael Sata)

Capacity of the Electoral Commission to organize the two presidential by-elections (October

2008 and January 2015) within the constitutional framework.

Change of political coalitions/parties: Rupiah Banda – Michael Sata – Edgard Lungu

Surviving former president: Kenneth Kaunda

Elections in Africa – Mixed Gains and Success (3)

2015 Elections in Africa (1)

Zambia Presidential By-Election 20 January 2015

Lesotho General Elections 28 February 2015

Togo Presidential Elections 05 March 2015

Egypt Parliamentary Elections (Phase 1) 22-23 March 2015

Parliamentary Elections (Phase 2) 25-27 April 2015

Nigeria President, House of Representatives & Senate 28 March 2015 (?)

State Assemblies, State Governors & Local 11 April 2015

Libya Constitutional Referendum March 2015

Sudan President, National Assembly, State & Local 02 April 2015

Tanzania Constitutional Referendum 30 April 2015

President, National Assembly, Zanzibar & Local October 2015

Ethiopia House of People's Representatives & Regional Assemblies 24 May 2015

Burundi National Assembly & Local 26 May 2015

Presidential Elections – 1st Round 26 June 2015

Presidential Elections – 2nd Round 27 July 2015

Senate (indirect) 17 July 2015

Mauritius Parliamentary Elections May 2015

2015 Elections in Africa (2)

South Sudan President, National Legislative Assembly & Local 9? 30? June (July?) 2015

Burkina Faso President, National Assembly & Local Elections 11 October 2015

Cote d'Ivoire Presidential Elections October 2015

CAR Constitutional referendum? 2015

President & Parliamentary Elections July 2015

Chad Parliamentary Elections September? 2015

Guinea Presidential Elections June? November? 2015

Libya Presidential Elections 2015?

Algeria Council of the Nation (indirect) Half December 2015

2016 Elections in Africa

Benin Presidential Elections (March 2016)

Chad Presidential Elections (April 2016)

Cote d'Ivoire Parliamentary Elections (December 2016)

CAR Parliamentary Elections

DRC Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

Ghana Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

Morocco Parliamentary Elections

Niger Presidential and Parliamentary Elections

Rwanda Parliamentary Elections

Somalia General Elections

Uganda General Elections

Democracy and Elections in Ethiopia

Lessons learnt from fighting against the military socialist regime

Revolutionary democracy - political ideology of EPRDF – Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (Ethiopia is a developed, collectivist society in which the individual is totally committed to the common, collective good)

Overwhelming victory of EPRDF in the 2010 general elections, after the 2005 loss in a national election in Addis Ababa

Defeat of the opposition parties and the return to a dominant-party state (neutralization of dissent?) – The preeminence of a dominant-party state does not necessarily imply a lack of dissent. The fact that the opposition parties managed to garner nearly 40 percent of the vote in the capital in 2010 reveals that dissent persists in Addis Ababa

Unlike other elections in which the ruling party secured an overwhelming victory, in 2010 opposition parties did not boycott the electoral process. When opposition parties contested the elections of 2000 and 2005, the EPRDF had lost ground in the city.

The significance of the 2010 national election lies not only in the remarkable election results, but also in the way that political space in the capital city was closed down, and the apparent reversal of the opposition’s fortunes as compared to the previous election, when it gained increased support in the cities

Ties between political mobilization and the delivery of services to those at the bottom of urban society

Delivering development and basic services could be used as a means to generate and mobilize support.

Understanding the grassroots politics of the Ethiopian state is important, as the uncontested victory of the EPRDF in local elections in April 2013 brought to the surface a number of important continuities in political practice despite the death of PM Meles Zenawi in August 2012.

2015-2016 Elections in Africa – Challenges

The incumbency effect

Controversial constitutional and legal reforms – ill-timed and tailored-made (presidential terms limit, discriminatory and biased electoral systems)

Periodicity of elections (compliance to constitutional and legal timeframes)

Terrorism: Libya domino effect, Egypt, Somalia, Mali, Eritrea, Boko Haram (Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger)

Civil war: South Sudan, DRC, CAR

Ebola: West Africa (Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea and West Africa?)

Cost of elections – International electoral assistance (UN, UNDP – increasing competition from other actors)

Use of technologies and the issue of sustainability (Biometric VR, electronic vote…)

High risk of violent crisis: the magnitude of the risk associated with each of the upcoming crucial elections on the continent

Regional and sub-regional political and security dynamics

Laxity on local elections vs. elections at the national levels

The incumbency effect

Civil war

Concluding notes

Elections at the national level, especially presidential polls, have come to represent a critical

moment for peace and political stability, and consequentially for economic and social

progress.

Elections serve as a test for the consolidation of the practice and culture of democracy in

each of the countries and, by the same token, the whole African continent.

Gains yes, yet challenges and risk of reversal.

Thank you

Merci beaucoup