NIGERIA 2015 ELECTION:

REALITY & SPECULATION

Nigeria 2015 Presidential Election is scheduled to hold

March 28, 2015 across the Nation. Amongst others,

there are two major contenders – the incumbent,

President Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and General

Muhamadu Buhari (APC) will be slugging it out with

the hope that Nigerians will entrust the country to

their visionary leadership for the next four years.

Nigeria 2015 Presidential Election is scheduled to hold

March 28, 2015 across the Nation. Amongst others,

there are two major contenders – the incumbent,

President Goodluck Jonathan (PDP) and General

Muhamadu Buhari (APC) will be slugging it out with

the hope that Nigerians will entrust the country to

their visionary leadership for the next four years.

With an estimated total population of 175million and

only 68.8million registered voters, only about

56.4million* have been able to collect their Permanent

Voter Cards (PVC) and are therefore eligible to vote

come March 28, 2015.

*Source – Independent National Electoral Commission, March 17, 2015.

POPULATION

175million

REGISTERED

68.8million

ELIGIBLE

56.4million

39.3% 82.0%

32.0%

VOTER TURNOUT FROM (1999 – 2011)

ELECTION

YEAR

REGISTERED

VOTERS

TOTAL

VOTES

VOTER

TURNOUT

VOTER

APATHY

1999 57,938,945 30,280,052 52.3% 27,658,893

2003 60,823,022 42,018,735 69.1% 18,804,287

2007 61,567,036 35,708,881 58.0% 25,858,155

2011 73,528,040 39,469,484 53.7% 34,058,556

Due to the current level of political awareness in the

Country, it is projected that about 60% of eligible

voters will vote in the March 28, 2015 election.

ELECTION

YEAR

REGISTERED

VOTERS

ELIGIBLE

VOTERS

PROJECTED

VOTER TURNOUT

2015 68,833,476 56,350,776 33,810,466

DISTRIBUTION OF VOTERS ACROSS

THE NATION –

BY STATES, GEO-POLITICAL ZONES,

POLITICAL PARTIES

REGISTERED VOTERS, STATES & ELIGIBILITY

NO. STATE REG. VOTERS ELIGIBLE %

1 Abia 1,396,162 1,183,127 84.74

2 Adamawa 1,559,012 1,381,571 88.62

3 Akwa-Ibom 1,680,759 1,587,566 94.46

4 Anambra 1,963,173 1,658,967 84.50

5 Bauchi 2,054,125 1,967,081 95.76

6 Bayelsa 610,373 548,585 89.88

7 Benue 2,015,452 1,607,800 79.77

8 Borno 1,934,079 1,407,777 72.79

9 Cross River 1,175,623 983,968 83.70

10 Delta 2,275,264 1,939,952 85.26

11 Ebonyi 1,074,273 848,392 78.97

12 Edo 1,779,738 1,224,608 68.81

13 Ekiti 732,021 522,107 71.32

14 Enugu 1,429,221 1,223,606 85.61

15 Fct 881,472 569,109 64.56

16 Gombe 1,120,023 1,070,198 95.55

17 Imo 1,803,030 1,707,449 94.70

18 Jigawa 1,831,276 1,757,658 95.98

NO. STATE REG. VOTERS ELIGIBLE %

19 Kaduna 3,407,222 3,174,519 93.17

20 Kano 4,975,701 4,112,039 82.64

21 Katsina 2,827,943 2,620,096 92.65

22 Kebbi 1,470,648 1,372,630 93.34

23 Kogi 1,350,883 926,013 68.55

24 Kwara 1,142,267 889,067 77.83

25 Lagos 5,822,207 3,799,274 65.25

26 Nasarawa 1,242,667 1,048,053 84.34

27 Niger 2,014,317 1,682,058 83.51

28 Ogun 1,829,534 1,053,230 57.57

29 Ondo 1,524,655 1,118,479 73.36

30 Osun 1,407,107 1,031,662 73.32

31 Oyo 2,415,566 1,639,967 67.89

32 Plateau 2,001,825 1,508,585 75.36

33 Rivers 2,537,590 2,127,837 83.85

34 Sokoto 1,611,929 1,527,004 94.73

35 Taraba 1,340,652 1,270,889 94.80

36 Yobe 1,099,970 824,401 74.95

37 Zamfara 1,495,717 1,435,452 95.97

GEO-POLITICAL ZONES & ELIGIBILITY

GEO-POLITICAL REG. VOTERS ELIGIBLE

NORTH CENTRAL 13,476,826 10,850,781

NORTH EAST 9,107,861 7,921,917

NORTH WEST 14,792,493 13,379,302

SOUTH EAST 7,665,859 6,621,541

SOUTH SOUTH 10,059,347 8,412,516

SOUTH WEST 13,731,090 9,164,719

GRAND TOTAL 68,833,476 56,350,776

NORTH 32,152,000 SOUTH24,198,776

19,291,200 14,519,26660%

STATES, POLITICAL PARTIES & ELIGIBILITY

POLITICAL PARTY TOTAL

APC 14

APGA 1

PDP 21

PARTY REG. VOTERS ELIGIBLE AVG %

APC 31,097,102 23,827,820 78.19

APGA 1,963,173 1,658,967 84.50

PDP 34,891,729 30,294,880 85.92

(blank) 881,472 569,109 64.56

GRAND TOTAL 68,833,476 56,350,776 82.38

Jigawa, Zamfara, Bauchi, Gombe, Taraba, Sokoto, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Kebbi,

Kaduna, Katsina

90% ELIGIBILITY

Bayelsa, Adamawa, Enugu, Delta, Abia, Kano

Anambra, Nasarawa, Rivers, Cross River, Niger

80% ELIGIBILITY

Benue, Ebonyi, Kwara, Plateau, Yobe, Ondo,

Osun, Borno, Ekiti

70% ELIGIBILITY

Edo, Kogi, Oyo, Lagos, FCT, Ogun

<70% ELIGIBILITY

(blank) – FCT, no party

STATES AND VOTERS SIZE = INTEREST STATES

Interest States are states that could tilt the election

result in favour of whoever wins them. They are

primarily determined by their population (eligible

voters)

STATES PARTY REG. VOTERS ELIGIBILITY

Kano APC 4,975,701 4,112,039

Lagos APC 5,822,207 3,799,274

Kaduna PDP 3,407,222 3,174,519

Katsina PDP 2,827,943 2,620,096

Rivers APC 2,537,590 2,127,837

Bauchi PDP 2,054,125 1,967,081

Delta PDP 2,275,264 1,939,952

9.7MILLION 10.0MILLIONPDP APC

CATEGORIZING ELIGIBILITY – H/M/L

4,112,039

522,107

KANO

BAYELSA

3,589,932RANGE

INTEREST STATES SCALE

HIGH 2,915,395 < = 4,112,039

MEDIUM 1,718,751 < 2,915,395

LOW 522,107 < 1,718,751

CATEGORIZING ELIGIBILITY – H/M/L

KANO, LAGOS, KADUNA

KATSINA, RIVERS, BAUCHI, DELTA, JIGAWA

IMO, NIGER, ANAMBRA, OYO, BENUE, AKWA IBOM, SOKOTO, PLATEAU, ZAMFARA, BORNO, ADAMAWA, KEBBI, TARABA, EDO,

ENUGU, ABIA, ONDO, GOMBE, OGUN, NASARAWA, OSUN, CROSS RIVER, KOGI, KWARA, EBONYI, YOBE, FCT, BAYELSA, EKITI

BETWEEN 2,915,395 & 4,112,039

BETWEEN 1,718,751 & 2,915,395

BETWEEN 522,107 & 1,718,751

LIKELY OUTCOME OF 2015 ELECTION

Whoever wins these THREE States (Kano, Lagos, and Kaduna) and

TWO of these States (KATSINA, RIVERS, BAUCHI, DELTA,

JIGAWA)...has the highest probability of emerging winner.1

Whoever wins TWO of these States (Kano, Lagos, and Kaduna) and

THREE of these States (KATSINA, RIVERS, BAUCHI, DELTA,

JIGAWA)...has the highest probability of emerging winner.2

With or achieved, victory in FOUR of these States (IMO, NIGER,

ANAMBRA, OYO, BENUE, AKWA IBOM, SOKOTO, PLATEAU) will

further strengthen the probability of winning the election.3

ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL…

#Vote#VoteWisely

#VoteResponsibly#VoteYourConscience

The labour of our heroes past: Shall never be in vain!

Are you having issues with making sense of your data?

Analysis by: Wale Micaiah

e: walegate@yahoo.com

m: 08078001800

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