Retail Audit&

Consumer Panel

Agenda

What is retail audit & consumer panel

Purpose

Structure/Key contents

Example of analyzing steps

How to read retail audit & consumer panel

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Retail Audit

&Consumer

Panel

What is consumer Panel & Retail Audit

The question is: Why does data from these research types must be analyzed in the very first stage?

Both CP and RA belongs to the first step in market research

process

CP and RA helps us see the overview of market, therefore decide what we need to focus in the next steps.

What is consumer Panel & Retail AuditConsumer Panel Retail Audit

Definition A form of panel survey which estimates the final consumer behavior-> WHAT CONSUMERS BUY

Study of a selected sample of retail outlets.

=> WHAT DISTRIBUTORS SELL

-> Both CP and RA is measuring final consumer behavior, but CP is direct, RA is indirect (through distributor)

Method -Long-term commitment participants that is

consumer/shopper for panel survey

-Mostly large-scale quantitative (quantitative in some

cases)

-Long-term commitment participants that is retailers

-Large-scale quantitative

Measurement Penetration, brand preference and consumer/shopper

behavior

-Distribution and sales effectiveness in the MARKET.-Size, trend, growth of category

Research Agency Kantar WorldPanel, Epinion (specialized in online panel) Nielsen (FMCG), GfK (tech)…

So, the answer is

Purpose of doing CP & RA

-Gaining general understanding about market and consumer before taking any marketing

action. -Update changes market situation (from ourselves and competitors)

Similarities

- Differences -Consumer

PanelIdentify change in behavior related to

advertising, price campaign, so the effect of these marketing actions can be recognized.

Retail AuditGain understanding in market competitive

environment, distribution and shopper behavior.

Recognize effectiveness of prior trade activities

-> More useful for consumer marketing -> More useful for trade marketing

Structure of Retail Audit

1. General Market Analysis- Macro-economics:

- Trend/growth in GDP, CPI- GDP structure- Countries attractiveness to FDI

- Categories Overview:- Contribution of each categories to the whole market- Market growth (we took FMCG for example): Nominal growth =

Volume change (%) + Unit value change (%)- Categories growth: in Value(%)-money and Volume(%)-SKUs

Example of categories: Beverages, Food, Dairy, Home care, Personal care, Cigarettes

- New brand- or New launch/category: number of products launch in periods of time.

2. Channel:- Store: MT (hypermarket, supermarket, convenience store, mall) & GT (wet

market, grocery, street shop)- Number of Stores in periods of time- Retail store density: (number of stores/million population) - Number of Stores in region/city- Shopper frequency of visit: times/month- Store expansion: new stores/year

- Trend: compare index from year to years- Example: urban shopper shifting from wet market to supermarket…

Structure of Retail Audit

3. Brand Share:- Market share: brand sales/total market sales- Purchase share- Stock share- Numeric Distribution: how many thousand stores that have at

least 1 product of this brand? (gives you an idea of the reach of distribution)

- Weighted distribution: how much sales those stores (that you’re) in account for the whole market? (gives you an idea of the quality of distribution)

- Off-take

Structure of Consumer PanelGeneral Market Analysis- Macro-economics:

- Trend/growth in GDP, CPI- GDP/Capita- Population, population structure (aging, urban/rural)

- Consumer- Consumer confidence- Income of each class, region

Behavior- Shopper

- Spending priority- Channel priority- Shopping habit: frequency, value/1 occasion, time spending- Shopping influencers

- Consumer- General Trend (health & natural, convenience, indulgence, tech…)- Usage of each category - Brand Preference- Activities & hobbies

- Media- Admired people- Media channel (TV, Social network, smartphone…)- Internet using behavior

- Trend: compare index from year to years- Example: Dairy products are consumed 12% more in urban from

2013 to 2014

Structure of Consumer Panel

Penetration:- Market penetration (%): Consumer Who Have Purchased a Product

in the Category/ Total Population- Brand penetration (%): Consumer Who Have Purchased the Brand/

Total Population- Penetration share (%): Brand Penetration/ Market Penetration- Consumer reach point (million) = Brand penetration (million) *

Frequency

Example

1) Background:

Brand A has 2 competitors. We need to compare the promotional the first half of this year. We also the historical information about the competitor promotions. We expect to see patterns and be conclusions on the competitors’ promotional strategies.

Analyze a Retail Audit

2) Findings: 3 brands have 2 promotions in the first half:+ Brands B plays with in-out promotions and gains dominant position during this periods+ The timing is focus (w4 to w9 and w20 to w25). It made it even more effective, arriving after the promotions of brand A and Brand C ended.+ Temporary reduction price and the giraffe promotion delivered similar results with no lasting growth in baseline share.+ C has a successful multipack in w9-10, while the later simple price reduction did not really add to its share.3) Conclusion: brand B plays effectively with in-outs in discounters, while for brand A, the temporary reduction and the giraffe promotion delivered similar results.4) What to check next in further analysis:Check the distribution levels within the channel and incorporate this information in the explanation. Collect longer historical data to see the patterns and full year promotional strategies.

5) Decision making:This analysis is very useful for the Trade Team to evaluate the promotion schedule based on what the competitors do and how successful they are. Recommendations may lead to changing the frequency and type of promotions used, even the timing within the year. If constant presence is not key for brand ’A’ in discounters, in-outs may be considered based on the success of ’B’. Brand ’C’ had considerable share growth with the multipack, this may work on brand ’A’, too.

How to read Consumer Panel & Retail Audit

Laszlo Zsom, www.retailauditanalysis.com

Trends, trend breaks instead of month-by-month changes

Time blocks with similar pattern

Connected movements (e.g. pricing and market share)

Fluctuations vs. real changes

Looking for

Seasonality

Change in the speed (of growth/decline)

WARNING: Take care of the significance levels

At national level, an 0.1% share increase may be significant, while in a small retail channel even an 0.5%p share change may be within the statistical error level

Thank you

Pham Van Khai Dinh Ngoc Van Huong