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Maree ConwayThinking Futures
Weak Signals, Wild Cards and a Leap of Faith
Swinburne 7th Wave Conference
September 2014
What is a weak signal?
Weak signals
Signals of emerging issues; an early warning of change; sometimes called seeds of the future in the present
Ambiguous, incomplete information - can’t use normal forms of proof to demonstrate that the idea is good
Value lies in the eye of the beholder
Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers
Emerging Issues
Trends
Mainstream
Time
Number of cases; degree of public awareness
Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics
Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs
Government Institutions
Few cases,local focus
Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends
InnovatorsEarly adopters
Late Adopters
Late Majority
Laggards
Today
Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years
TodayWeak Signals
Three horizons
Bill Sharpe Three Horizons: A way of working with change, 2013http://sustainable-learning.org/2013/10/three-horizons-a-way-of-working-with-change/
Once you perceive a weak signal and understand it, a whole host of other signals may become visible. These
comprise the complete ecosystem of ideas and trends that will support
each other in the journey from dream to manifestation. No weak signal ever rises to dominance by
itself, but is accompanied by shifts in political, economic, technological, and social thought and invention.
Brian S Coffman, 1977
http://www.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/jotm/winter97/wsrintro.htm
What is a wildcard?
A low probability, high impact event that has
the potential to change the world overnight
John Petersen, Arlington Institute
If you don’t think about a wildcard before it happens, all of the value of thinking about it is lost
Accessing and understanding information is key –look for people at the edges
Extraordinary events will require extraordinary approaches
Why care?
Coffman 1997 http://www.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/jotm/winter97/wsrmatur.htm
Examples
http://cdn.nmc.org/media/2014-nmc-horizon-report-he-EN-SC.pdf
Some weak signals: Technology
Maker movement and hyper personal manufacturing: 3D printing/4D printing –customised and on demand. Now biohacking.
Internet of Things- Privacy and surveillance and issue- Lots of (big) data about you for others to use- Blurring physical and digital
Robotics – drones now, in the office when?
Artificial intelligence – the Singularity cometh?
Wearables – using the data – how?
Some weak signals: Technology
Haptic holographics and gamification/gaming
Oculus Rift and similar immersive virtual reality headsets – virtual experiences, maybe even ‘being’ in another person’s body through mutual sensations
Brain inspired computers (IBM DARPA SyNAPSEmetric of a one million neuron brain-inspired processor – holistic computing intelligence)
Some weak signals: Users
Telepathy – message sent between brains from India to France – potential to input info directly to brain?
Sensors, facial recognition and wearables technologies to customise experiences for you (retail)
Bank customers signing in with veins
Biometrics – fingerprint scanning
Some weak signals: education
Cognitive enhancers – improved memory and focusAI in the classroom – Japanese AI program to sit university entrance tests
Mobius Slip – peer grading integrated
Alison: integrated assessment with learning platform
Next: AI and continuous real time digital assessment –the demise of exams as we know them?
New competitors from left field – big tech players (eg Google), public libraries, Pearson, magazines, social media, Amazon?
Some weak signals: universities
New secondary school structures and operations emerging – student centred (Templestowe College)
Minerva Project – for profit, bare bones university in San Francisco – online platform. Aims to reform or replace liberal arts college sector
Qualifications – digital certification, employers wanting proof of competenciesUnizin – consortia to have greater control and influence over the digital learning landscape
Digital Business Development (Gartner)
Digital Marketing: mobile, social, cloud and information – holographic displays, neurobusiness, gesture control, augmented reality
Digital business: convergence of people, business and things – smart workspaces, connected homes, consumer 3D printing
Autonomous: leveraging technologies that provide human-like or human replacing technologies –human augmentation, quantum computing, smart robots
Wildcards
Teachers are replaced by adaptive learning systems
Teacher-less learning models begin to appear, particularly in developing countries (like Hole in the Wall in India)
Mass biometric verification data theft damages uptake of new technologies
That leap of faith?
Didn’t take a leap of faith
Kodak – developed the technology but didn’t want to spend the money – Board decides to focus on existing business where they’ve invested heavily
Blockbuster – offered Netflix in 2000, recognised challenges, CEO proposed changes, undermined from inside, he was sacked, new CEO leads them to bankruptcy by focusing on existing business
Borders – too late to the web, missed ebooks, too many stores, over emphasis on music, industry changed around it
Weak signals and wildcards are not certain: we don’t know if they will really matter.
We have to watch them and sometimes take a leap of faith.
So…what to do?
Go out there (via Elina Hiltunen)
Human sources
Textual sources
Online sources
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-make-sense-of-weak-signals/
Add this process to your systems
Create some wildcards to test:Reference Impact Grid (Marcus Barber)
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
1 2
3
4
5
Present Concerns
Future Aspirations
Inspirational Practice
Innovations In Play
Essential Features to Maintain
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
But…
Michael Parent, Google+, 2014
PREVALENCE
TIME
H3
H1
H2
Three Horizons
H1 sees
H2 as too risky
H3 as irrelevant.
H2 sees
H1 as obstructive
H3 as inspiring.
H3 sees
H1 as lunacy
H2 as promising.
www.internationalfuturesforum.com
The future will not be like the past. The future
will be built by those who will take risks and
action to invent the world they want.
Vinod Khosla , The Case For Intelligent Failure To Invent The Future, TechCrunch, 2014
Thanks to my APF Colleagues
Tom AbelesBryan AlexanderMarcus BarberJames BreauxDennis DraegerRobert MoranGuillermina Maria Eugenia Baena PazHeather Schegel
Get in touch
Maree Conway | Thinking Futures
PO Box 2118, Hotham Hill, 3051
Australia
Telephone: +61 (0) 3 9016 9506
Mobile: +61 (0) 425 770 181
Email: [email protected]
Web: http://thinkingfutures.net
Twitter: @mareeconway
