Maree ConwayThinking Futures

Weak Signals, Wild Cards and a Leap of Faith

Swinburne 7th Wave Conference

September 2014

What is a weak signal?

Weak signals

Signals of emerging issues; an early warning of change; sometimes called seeds of the future in the present

Ambiguous, incomplete information - can’t use normal forms of proof to demonstrate that the idea is good

Value lies in the eye of the beholder

Adapted from the work of Graham Molitor and Wendy Schultz, and Everett Rogers

Emerging Issues

Trends

Mainstream

Time

Number of cases; degree of public awareness

Scientists, artists, radicals, mystics

Newspapers, magazines, websites, journals, blogs

Government Institutions

Few cases, local focus

Global, multiple dispersed cases, trends and megatrends

InnovatorsEarly adopters

Late Adopters

Late Majority

Laggards

Today

Time from emerging issue to mainstream varies between 18-36 years

TodayWeak Signals

Three horizons

Bill Sharpe Three Horizons: A way of working with change, 2013http://sustainable-learning.org/2013/10/three-horizons-a-way-of-working-with-change/

Once you perceive a weak signal and understand it, a whole host of other signals may become visible. These

comprise the complete ecosystem of ideas and trends that will support

each other in the journey from dream to manifestation. No weak signal ever rises to dominance by

itself, but is accompanied by shifts in political, economic, technological, and social thought and invention.

Brian S Coffman, 1977http://www.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/jotm/winter97/wsrintro.htm

What is a wildcard?

A low probability, high impact event that has

the potential to change the world overnight

John Petersen, Arlington Institute

If you don’t think about a wildcard before it happens, all of the value of thinking about it is lost

Accessing and understanding information is key – look for people at the edges

Extraordinary events will require extraordinary approaches

Why care?

Coffman 1997 http://www.mgtaylor.com/mgtaylor/jotm/winter97/wsrmatur.htm

Examples

http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2819918

http://cdn.nmc.org/media/2014-nmc-horizon-report-he-EN-SC.pdf

Some weak signals: Technology

Maker movement and hyper personal manufacturing: 3D printing/4D printing – customised and on demand. Now biohacking.

Internet of Things- Privacy and surveillance and issue- Lots of (big) data about you for others to use- Blurring physical and digital

Robotics – drones now, in the office when?Artificial intelligence – the Singularity cometh?Wearables – using the data – how?

Some weak signals: Technology

Haptic holographics and gamification/gaming

Oculus Rift and similar immersive virtual reality headsets – virtual experiences, maybe even ‘being’ in another person’s body through mutual sensations

Brain inspired computers (IBM DARPA SyNAPSE metric of a one million neuron brain-inspired processor – holistic computing intelligence)

Some weak signals: Users

Telepathy – message sent between brains from India to France – potential to input info directly to brain?

Sensors, facial recognition and wearables technologies to customise experiences for you (retail)

Bank customers signing in with veinsBiometrics – fingerprint scanning

Some weak signals: educationCognitive enhancers – improved memory and focusAI in the classroom – Japanese AI program to sit university entrance tests

Mobius Slip – peer grading integratedAlison: integrated assessment with learning platformNext: AI and continuous real time digital assessment – the demise of exams as we know them?

New competitors from left field – big tech players (eg Google), public libraries, Pearson, magazines, social media, Amazon?

Some weak signals: universities

New secondary school structures and operations emerging – student centred (Templestowe College)

Minerva Project – for profit, bare bones university in San Francisco – online platform. Aims to reform or replace liberal arts college sector

Qualifications – digital certification, employers wanting proof of competenciesUnizin – consortia to have greater control and influence over the digital learning landscape

Digital Business Development (Gartner)

Digital Marketing: mobile, social, cloud and information – holographic displays, neurobusiness, gesture control, augmented reality

Digital business: convergence of people, business and things – smart workspaces, connected homes, consumer 3D printing

Autonomous: leveraging technologies that provide human-like or human replacing technologies – human augmentation, quantum computing, smart robots

Wildcards

Teachers are replaced by adaptive learning systems

Teacher-less learning models begin to appear, particularly in developing countries (like Hole in the Wall in India)

Mass biometric verification data theft damages uptake of new technologies

That leap of faith?

Didn’t take a leap of faith

Kodak – developed the technology but didn’t want to spend the money – Board decides to focus on existing business where they’ve invested heavily

Blockbuster – offered Netflix in 2000, recognised challenges, CEO proposed changes, undermined from inside, he was sacked, new CEO leads them to bankruptcy by focusing on existing business

Borders – too late to the web, missed ebooks, too many stores, over emphasis on music, industry changed around it

Weak signals and wildcards are not certain: we don’t know if they will really matter.

We have to watch them and sometimes take a leap of faith.

So…what to do?

Go out there (via Elina Hiltunen)

Human sources

Textual sources

Online sources

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-make-sense-of-weak-signals/

Add this process to your systems

Create some wildcards to test:Reference Impact Grid (Marcus Barber)

www.internationalfuturesforum.com

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Present Concerns

Future Aspirations

Inspirational Practice

Innovations In Play

Essential Features to Maintain

www.internationalfuturesforum.com

But…

Michael Parent, Google+, 2014

PREVALENCE

TIME

H3

H1

H2

Three Horizons

H1 sees H2 as too riskyH3 as irrelevant.

H2 sees H1 as obstructiveH3 as inspiring.

H3 sees H1 as lunacyH2 as promising.

www.internationalfuturesforum.com

The future will not be like the past. The future

will be built by those who will take risks and

action to invent the world they want.

Vinod Khosla , The Case For Intelligent Failure To Invent The Future, TechCrunch, 2014

Thanks to my APF Colleagues

Tom AbelesBryan AlexanderMarcus BarberJames BreauxDennis DraegerRobert MoranGuillermina Maria Eugenia Baena PazHeather Schegel

Get in touchMaree Conway | Thinking FuturesPO Box 2118, Hotham Hill, 3051Australia

Telephone: +61 (0) 3 9016 9506Mobile: +61 (0) 425 770 181

Email: maree.conway@thinkingfutures.net

Web: http://thinkingfutures.net

Twitter: @mareeconway