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Project EstimationsWhat, Why, and How?
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
Back to the Roots
Scope
Schedule Budget
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
Perception
Scope
Schedule Budget
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
RealityTARGET
CONSTRAINTS
%
% %
COMMITMENT
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
Context
COMMITMENT = f(Target, Constraints, Priorities)
• Scope• Budget• Schedule
• Scope• Schedule• Budget
• Schedule• Scope• Budget
• Budget• Scope• Schedule
• Budget• Schedule• Scope
• Schedule• Budget• Scope
“FIXED PRICE” “FIXED TIME” “MILESTONE” “MVP”
“TIME-TO-MARKET”
“STARTUP”
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
Approach
• EvaluateTarget
• CalculateVariable
• VerifyFixed
• Simplify / ExtendTarget
• Target• Fixed Constraint• Variable Constraint
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
Evaluation
Scope
• Size• Technology• Dependencies• WBS
Schedule
• Process • Velocity• Milestones • Deadline
• Team• Rate• Direct Expenses• Cost • Profit
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
Uncertainty
Uncertainty
Assumption Risk Contingen
cy
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
SummaryDo Don’t Do
• Panic!• Disregard a context• Introduce unnecessary constraints• Look for workarounds instead of solutions• Accept unrealistic assumptions• Bullsh*t a client
• Listen to your client• Understand a context• Distinguish targets and
constraints• Look for a solution to meet a
target as much as possible within constraints set by a client
• Address uncertainty by making assumptions, plan a contingency, track correspondent risks
• Negotiate a target with a client
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015
© Denys Prylutskyi, 2015