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In this presentation, Ray Bollman explores the demographic trends of rural Ontario.
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1
Rural Development is Getting Harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
Presentation to the session on
Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks
Ontario East Municipal Conference
September 10, 2014
Kingston
Ray D. [email protected]
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon UniversityAdjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
• the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and
• Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005
2
Rural Development is getting harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• Components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
– International immigration
Generally, migration is the largest component of
population change across non-metro Ontario
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
2033
2035
Potential entrants to the labour force (10 to 19 years of age) as a percentof potential exiters from the labour force (55 to 64 years of age)
Historical data
L: Low growth
Medium1 1981-2008 trends
Medium2 2006-2008 trends
Medium3 1988-1996 trends
Medium4 2001-2006 trends
High growth
A1 replacementfertility
A2 zeroimmigration
A3 1%immigration
Source: Statistics Canada, Demographic Estimates and Projections, CANSIM Tables 051-0001 and 052-0005.
Potential labour market shortage (regardless of projection scenario) up to 2025due to less than 100 (potential) labour market entrants
per 100 (potential) labour market retirees, ONTARIO
0
50
100
150
200
250
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Metro
Non-metro
* Reclassification is not an issue in this time series. These data have been tabulated within the 2006 boundaries of metro and non-metro.Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0001 and 051-0046.
Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)
Demographic replacement of working age populationfell below 100% in 2009, non-metro Ontario
Number of potential labour market entrants (10 to 19 years of age) as a percent of the
number of potential labour market retirees (55 to 64 years of age)
Ottawa 95 Prescott & Russell 86 Frontenac 79 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 78 Hastings 77 Renfrew 75 Lennox & Addington 74 Leeds & Grenville 71 Lanark 70 Peterborough 69 Northumberland 67 Kawartha Lakes 65 Prince Edward 54 Haliburton 41Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 951-0062.
Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by demographic replacement of working age population, 2013
Rural Development is getting harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• This implies labour market growth only from:
• Net in-migration from elsewhere in Canada; or
• International immigration
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
– International immigration
1996 to
1997
1997 to
1998
1998 to
1999
1999 to
2000
2000 to
2001
2001 to
2002
2002 to
2003
2003 to
2004
2004 to
2005
2005 to
2006
2006 to
2007
2007 to
2008
2008 to
2009
2009 to
2010
2010 to
2011
2011 to
2012
2012 to
2013
3546 Haliburton 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.9 1.4 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.0 1.93511 Lennox & Addington 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.8 1.73506 Ottawa 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.3 2.7 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.13502 Prescott & Russell 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.83516 Kawartha Lakes 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.7 -0.9 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.63514 Northumberland 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.63510 Frontenac 0.0 -0.1 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.23515 Peterborough 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.5 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.13507 Leeds & Grenville 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.03509 Lanark 1.1 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.03501 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.13547 Renfrew 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.13512 Hastings 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.23513 Prince Edward 0.4 -0.2 0.8 0.3 -0.6 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.8 -0.9
Percent change in total population
Census Division nameCensus Division
ID
Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by percent change in total population from 2012 to 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables051-0052.
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Haliburton, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
38,000
39,000
40,000
41,000
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Lennox and Addington, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
1,000,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Ottawa, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
95,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Prescott and Russell, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
74,000
76,000
78,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
72,000
74,000
76,000
78,000
80,000
82,000
84,000
86,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Northumberland, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Frontenac, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
120,000
122,000
124,000
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Peterborough, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
97,000
98,000
99,000
100,000
101,000
102,000
103,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
58,000
59,000
60,000
61,000
62,000
63,000
64,000
65,000
66,000
67,000
68,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Lanark, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
113,000
114,000
115,000
116,000
117,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
96,000
97,000
98,000
99,000
100,000
101,000
102,000
103,000
104,000
105,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Renfrew, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
126,000
128,000
130,000
132,000
134,000
136,000
138,000
140,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Hastings, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
24,000
25,000
26,000
27,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Total population
Prince Edward, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
Ottawa 0.48 Prescott & Russell 0.26 Frontenac 0.07 Renfrew 0.04 Hastings 0.00 Lanark -0.06 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry -0.11 Peterborough -0.11 Lennox & Addington -0.13 Leeds & Grenville -0.25 Kawartha Lakes -0.26 Northumberland -0.33 Haliburton -0.48 Prince Edward -0.48
Census Divisions in Eastern Ontario ranked by Natural Balance (births minus
deaths) as a percent of population, 2013
Source: Statistics Canada. 2014. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.80
-0.70
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Ottawa, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.80
-0.70
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Prescott and Russell, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Frontenac, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Renfrew, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Hastings, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Lanark, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Peterborough, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Lennox and Addington, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Northumberland, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.80
-0.70
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Haliburton, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
-0.80
-0.70
-0.60
-0.50
-0.40
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Natural Balance (births minus deaths) as a percent of the total population
Prince Edward, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario
• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Net in-migration to / from elsewhere in Canada; or
Total migration into CD
Total migration out of CD
Net migration with other
CDs
As percent of total
population
3546 Haliburton 1,163 734 429 2.473511 Lennox & Addington 2,812 2,052 760 1.773514 Northumberland 3,547 2,738 809 0.963516 Kawartha Lakes 3,817 3,113 704 0.943502 Prescott & Russell 4,000 3,493 507 0.583507 Leeds & Grenville 4,062 3,684 378 0.373509 Lanark 3,049 2,902 147 0.223510 Frontenac 7,323 6,998 325 0.213515 Peterborough 5,129 4,849 280 0.203506 Ottawa 26,663 25,254 1,409 0.153501 Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry 3,189 3,114 75 0.063547 Renfrew 4,219 4,251 -32 -0.033512 Hastings 5,944 6,143 -199 -0.143513 Prince Edward 1,327 1,392 -65 -0.25
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Tables 051-0062, 051-0063 and 051-0064.
Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) sorted by net internal migration (i.e. migration within Canada) (July 1, 2011 to June 30, 2012) as a percent of total population
-3.50
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Haliburton, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lennox and Addington, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Northumberland, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Kawartha Lakes, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Prescott and Russell, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Leeds and Grenville, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Lanark, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Frontenac, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Peterborough, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Ottawa, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Renfrew, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Hastings, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
-3.00
-2.50
-2.00
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Prince Edward, Ontario
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics. CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Net migration into this census divisionfrom another census division in Canada, as a percent of total population
The demographic trends of Eastern Ontario• Fewer (potential) labour market entrants than (potential) retirees
• First, trends in total population
• Then, components of population change:
– Natural Balance (births minus deaths)
– Voting with your feet
– Prince Edward Census Division:
• Largest % decline in total population in 2013
• Largest % decline due to net migration in 2013
• Here we look at net migration of youth for the three census divisions with the largest % decline in population in 2013:
• Prince Edward -0.9%, Hastings -0.2%, Renfrew -0.1%
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
Number t=1
t=1
Population 15 to 19 in
1996
Population 15 to 19 in
1997
Population 15 to 19 in
1998
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
Number t=1
t=5
Population 20 to 24 in
2001Population 20 to 24 in
2004
GAP = net decline from 2001 to 2006
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
Number t=1
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
Number t=1
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Prince Edward Census Division
Number t=1
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
Number t=1
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
Number t=1
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Hastings Census Division
Number t=1
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
Number t=1
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
Number t=1
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5),
Renfrew Census Division
Number t=1
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 15 to 19 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 20 to 24, five years later (t=5), Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
Number t=1
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number of residents age 20 to 24 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 25 to 29, five years later (t=5), Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
Number t=1
-2,500
0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
1996to
2001
1997to
2002
1998to
2003
1999to
2004
2000to
2005
2001to
2006
2002to
2007
2003to
2008
2004to
2009
2005to
2010
2006to
2011
2007to
2012
Stayerst=1 tot=5
Netmigrantst=1 tot=5
Source: Statistics Canada. Annual Demographic Statistics, CANSIM Table 051-0052.
Number t=1
Number of residents age 25 to 29 in the first period (t=1), compared tothe number of residents age 30 to 34, five years later (t=5), Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry Census Division
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
• the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and
• Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005
71
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Number employed (,000) (15 years of age and over) (using a 12-month moving average)
Source: Statistics Canada. Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Tables 282-0001 and 282-0111.
Ontario's non-metro employment was 1.24 million in June, 2014 -- the same level as November, 2003
Economic Regions
3510 Ottawa (and area) Economic Region:•includes Census Divisions:•01 Stormont, Dundas and Glengarry United Counties,•02 Prescott and Russell United Counties,•06 Ottawa Division•07 Leeds and Grenville United Counties ,and •09 Lanark County.
3515 Kingston – Pembroke Economic Region:•Includes Census Divisions:•10 Frontenac Management board,•11 Lennox and Addington County,•12 Hastings County,•13 Prince Edward Division, and•47 Renfrew County.
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Number employed (,000)(12-month moving average)
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
Number employed in Ontario'sOttawa (and area) Economic Region
June, 2012
150
175
200
225
250
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
Number employed (,000)(12-month moving average)
Source: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, CANSIM Table 282-0054.
Number employed in Ontario'sKingston - Pembroke Economic Region
September, 2005
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
•Conclusions
•Rural development is getting harder - - - because there are now fewer potential labour market entrants than potential retirees
•Four of 14 Eastern Ontario census divisions (CDs) reported a population decline from 2012 to 2013
•Nine of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more deaths than births in 2013
•But 11 of 14 Eastern Ontario CDs had more in-migrants than out-migrants in 2013
•Regarding employment trends
•Ontario’s non-metro employment has been flat since November, 2003
•In Eastern Ontario, employment in:
• the Ottawa (and area) Economic Region has been flat since June, 2013; and
• Employment has been flat in the Kingston-Pembroke Economic Region since September, 2005
76
77
Rural Development is Getting Harder:
The demographic trends of rural Ontario
Presentation to the session on
Demographic Trends and Community Benchmarks
Ontario East Municipal Conference
September 10, 2014
Kingston
Ray D. [email protected]
Research Affiliate, Rural Development Institute, Brandon UniversityAdjunct Professor, University of Saskatchewan
Questions / Discussion
