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  • UNDERSTANDING RETAILER SENTIMENT

    CATCH THE MOMENT OF TET

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    3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

    2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

    1. THE HISTORICAL TET

    UNDERSTANDING

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    SLUGGISH GROWTH

    GROWING EXPORTS

    MODERATE INFLATION

    THE VIETNAM MARKET IS SEEING TWO STREAMS

    CPI

    EXPORT GROWTH

    GDP

    2013 2014 TARGET 2014 YTD

    Source: GSO

    Source: GSO

    Source: GSO

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    Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics Total Vietnam (MT2Partial)

    12.4%

    -5.1%

    15.1% 13.6%

    13.8%

    7.7%

    -1.3% -4.2%

    -8.6%

    -5.8%

    -15%

    -10%

    -5%

    0%

    5%

    10%

    15%

    20%

    25%

    THE VOLATILITY OF MARKET MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PREDICT LONG TERM TREND

    Nationwide 15 categories

    Source: Nielsen Regional Growth Reporter Growth vs YA

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    HOW WILL TET 2015 BE?

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    3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

    2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

    1. THE HISTORICAL TET

    UNDERSTANDING

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    BEER, SOFT DRINK & BISCUIT/CANDY ARE THE TOP MOST RECALLED CATEGORIES FOR TET

    BEER CARBONATED SOFT DRINK

    BISCUIT/ CANDY

    80.0

    90.0

    100.0

    110.0

    120.0

    130.0

    140.0

    150.0

    160.0

    170.0

    180.0

    CSD

    Biscuit

    Pie & Sponge Cake

    Beer

    HCL

    Granules

    Soluble Coffee

    VOLUME SEASONALITY INDEX 6 CT TT

    Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN) Question: What are the top 3 best selling categories in your stores in Tet?

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    Super group_trend6 CT TT - Stocks | Period Ending JUL14 | Share of Total Non-Food

    NOV 25%

    JAN 13%

    DEC 45%

    34% 37% 52% 20%

    BIG SMALL

    MOST RETAILERS START STOCKING IN NOV/DEC AND MAINLY STOCK FOR BEVERAGE & FOOD

    WHEN?

    WHAT?

    Question: Which month do you normally start stocking for Tet?

    Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN)

    Note: Super-groups are on different scales

    Personal Care & Home Care stocks still manage to increase, yet at lesser extent

    STOCKING

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    3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

    2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

    1. THE HISTORICAL TET

    UNDERSTANDING

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    DESPITE THE INCREASE IN PURCHASES RETAILERS NEVER SAW THE OFF TAKE IN 2014

    49%

    33%

    17%

    Less

    Same

    More

    19 26

    18 17 10

    16

    CSD Beer

    6 CT TT - Volume % Chg vs. PP

    Tet'12 Tet'13 Tet'14

    14 13 9

    16

    9 11

    Urban Rural

    Granules - Volume % Chg vs. PP

    Declining off-take of Tet14 is mainly seen in Beverage, esp. CSD

    Rural seems to be more impacted than Urban when compared with previous Tet

    Question: How was the off-take of Tet'14

    compared with previous Tet in your store?

    Source: Nielsen Retail Audit & Tet Study 2014 (N=192 HCMC + HN)

    Tet12 (Dec-Jan-Feb); Tet13 (Jan-Feb-Mar); Tet14 (Dec-Jan-Feb)

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    3. WHAT IS EXPECTED IN TET 2015?

    2. WHAT CHANGED IN TET 2014?

    1. THE HISTORICAL TET

    UNDERSTANDING

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    STOCKING PERIODS SHOULD REMAIN THE SAME AS IN THE PAST, BUT SHOULD WE BE PUSHING EARLIER?

    Source: Tet Study 2014

    24 29 19 37

    22 12

    40 45

    35

    40

    40 40

    21 16

    26

    9 23

    32

    11 8 15 4 15 15

    Total(n=192)

    HCM(n=98)

    HN(n=94)

    Big(n=67)

    Medium(n=65)

    Small(n=60)

    Month retailers start stocking for Tet15

    November December January Not stock for Tet

    Question:Which month do you plan to start stocking for Tet15?

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    51 %

    1

    39%

    NEARLY HALF PLAN ON STOCKING LESS FOR TET15

    Source: Tet Study 2014

    Question: What are reasons for you to plan reducing level of stock for Tet'15 compared with Tet'14? To what extent do you plan to reduce the stock level for Tet15 compared with Tet'14?

    45%

    42%

    13%

    Less Same More

    Question: Compared with Tet'14,

    how do you plan stocking for Tet15?

    HCMC (n= 98)

    Hanoi (n= 94)

    Declining consumer demand

    72%

    Declining personal finance

    24%

    29% 55% 16%

    48% 44% 8%

    Stock reduction by

    (n= 38)

    (n= 48)

    STOCKING

    WHY?

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    61 %

    47 %

    ALARMINGLY OVER HALF ANTICIPATE LOWER OFF-TAKE VS. TET14

    Source: Tet Study 2014

    Question: To what extent do you anticipate off-take of Tet'15 will decline compared with Tet14?

    54% 34%

    13%

    Less Same More

    Question: How do you anticipate the off-take Tet15 compared with previous Tet?

    HCMC (n= 98)

    Hanoi (n= 94)

    37% 48% 15%

    42% 44% 14%

    Declining off-take by

    (n= 46)

    (n= 57)

  • BUT HOW CAN I WIN DESPITE THIS DOOM AND GLOOM?

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    RETAILERS WANT ASSURANCES THAT YOUR PRODUCTS WILL SELL

    Source: Tet Study 2014

    Quality guarantee/ Product return/ refund support

    Provide POSM/ Decoration materials to promote for Tet

    Promotion scheme for retailers achieving Tet sale target

    Promotion scheme for retailers having impressive display

    Quality guarantee/ Product return/ refund support

    Provide POSM/ Decoration materials to promote for Tet

    Promotion activities for end-users

    Promotion scheme for retailers having impressive display

    HCMC (n= 98)

    Hanoi (n= 94)

    57%

    47%

    39%

    29%

    74%

    33%

    32%

    24%

    Question: To attract more consumers in Tet, what kind of activities you would like manufacturers to support your stores?

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    STATING THE OBVIOUS MARGINS MATTER

    Source: Tet Study 2014 Question: Which retailer incentive schemes do you prefer?

    Tangible gift (eg. Rice cooker, Washing machine, etc.)

    % Margin on Purchase 90%

    47%

    30% Bonus same product if meet

    sales target

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    SHOPPERS ARE SEEKING INSTANT VALUE WITH ATTRACTIVE APPEARANCE PRODUCTS

    Source: Tet Study 2014

    Economic Offer (eg. Discou