Economic Futures of African Family Farms in the Face of Climate Change: Addressing Three Big Questions Through Integrated Assessment with a

Tanzanian caseKhamaldin D. Mutabazi1, Ibrahim L. Kadigi1 Sixbert M. Kajumula1, Siza D. Tumbo1, Stefan Sieber2

1Sokoine University of Agriculture, Tanzania; 2ZALF, Germany

Family farms are basically heterogeneous groups of small operated units in which most labor and enterprise come from the farm family, which puts much of its working time into the farm while tending to diversify income. African agriculture is dominated by owner-operated family units that combine ownership of the main means of production with management. Indeed, addressing malnutrition and kick-starting the reduction of poverty in Africa would normally require increased sustainable productivity of family farms. However, African family farms are facing a daunting future due to climate change in addition to other challenging global economic trends.

ReferencesAntle, J.M. 2011. Parsimonious Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 93(5): 1292-1311.

Rozenweig, C., Jones, J., Hatfield, J., Antle, J. 2014. Guide for regional integrated assessments: handbook of methods and procedure V.5.1. AgMIP, USA.

Introduction The study area and farming system

Empirical results

Conclusions for policy

The study applied an integrated climate impact assessment (Rosenzweig et al. 2014) involving five CMIP5 global circulation models (GCMs), two crop models (DSSAT and APSIM) and one socio-economic Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment Model (TOA-MD). The modeling scenario was based on RCP 8.5 mid-century (2040-2069) and base period (1980-2009). TOA-MD model was parameterized using yield input data from the climate-crop simulations (Antle 2011). Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) used in simulations include: improved grain price, improved extension services and increasing off-farm and crop-sector income that affect different model input parameters. The adaptation strategies investigated were mainly nitrogen fertilizer application and plant population for maize. Through integrated assessment the study addressed three big questions:● How the African family farms will be impacted by climate change if they continue with business as usual? [QUESTION 1]

● What will be the impacts with foreseen development pathways without adaptation? [QUESTION 2]

● What will be the impacts with foreseen development pathways with adaptation? [QUESTION 3]

● The semi-arid zone was more poorer than the sub-humid – with a per capita income of US$ 163 versus 182 of the later. Over half (57%) of faming families in the semi-arid were below the global poverty line of US$ 1.25 per capita per day – in the sub-humid zone less than half (48%) were dollar poor.● By mid-century the maximum temperature in the study area will increase by 3◦C. Rainfall is predicted to be variable with some places projected to increase by 12% especially in the semi-arid, while in other areas particularly in the sub-humid to decrease by 14 - 28%. The corresponding impact on maize yields is a decrease by 5.3 – 40%.

Integrated assessment approach

Sokoine Universityof Agriculture

The case study was conducted in the Wami-Ruvu sub-basin located in east-central of Tanzania (Fig. 1) covering 168 small family farms each with an average of 5.4 members. It covers an area of approximately 43,000 km2 of which 16.3% is an agricultural land – the rest covers mainly forests and bushland. The area was divided into agro-ecological zones entailing the semi-arid and sub-humid systems. The farming system is dominated by small family farms growing multiple crops and rearing traditional livestock species. Maize is the staple food crop in the study area also at country level. The choice of the area was backed by availability of key datasets: farm household survey data from National Bureau of Statistics/World Bank Panel Surveys of 2009, climate data from 11 weather stations, and crop experimental data.

Future incomes of family farmers will be better compared to the observed current income. By continuing with current production system in the face of future climate of mid-century, the family farms will lose from their future incomes by a loss US$ 19-21 per capita. This translates into an increase of dollar poverty

rate of 3-4% among the population of family farms in the area.

With trends in the production system, the future incomes of family farms

particularly in the currently poorer semi-arid zone will improve. Agricultural sector development pathways will further improve the income levels – by an increment of US$ 120 and 186 per capita in the semi-arid and sub-humid areas, respectively. This translates into reduced poverty rates by 2 and 5% in respective areas. It seems the development

plans and investment will favour the potentially productive sub-humid area

QN 1

QN 2

QN 3 The adaptations in the production systems by enhancing use of fertilizer

and optimizing plant population on the farms with RAPs will impressively off-set the negative impact of future climate change on the welfare of farming families. The impact of adaptation on the future income will be at a tune of US$ 556 and 567 in semi-arid and sub-humid, respectively. This translates into 6% reduction

in poverty rates across the two agro-zones.

● Without planned adaptations and effective agricultural sector development plans and investments, the future welfare of family farmers will be adversely affected by climate change. Poverty rates and vulnerability will be widespread.

● The agriculture sector development pathways without planned adaptation will improve productivity of family farms to the extent of off-setting negative climate change impacts on family incomes. However, the gain in poverty reduction is just modest as it would have been with both RAPs and planned adaptations. However, RAPs are expected to favour the potential semi-arid agro-zone over the less potential semi-arid.

● A combination of both agricultural development plans and investments, and adaptations will significantly off-set the negative impact of future climate change on the welfare among family farmers. The level of poverty reduction relatively higher compared to a situation with adaptations only (question 2).

Fig. 1: The study area

Zalf.Leibniz-Zentrum fürAgrarlandschaftsforschung

(ZALF) e.V.