Jose Roberto Peres - Enough Beef Now and into the Future: Global Beef Balance Trends

The Fight for a Food-Secure Tomorrow

@Elanco #FeedThe9 GMACTLNON00007

• 25,000 die daily from hunger

The Collapse

The Faces of Food Security

#FeedThe9

The Deficiency The Hunt The Edge The Quality

Access

Availability

Disease Development Decisions

• No meat in the diet

• Daily search for the meal

• Getting the right calories

• Temporary life event creates short term need

• Preserving access to choice

“How do I choose which child to feed?”

“With food like this, my people can’t thrive.”

“Where and when will I get my next meal?”

“I wish we had a good grocery

store.” “What

happened?” “It’s part of

who we are.”

The Tradition

Shifting our Paradigms

Hunger Food Security Crisis Solutions

Listening Taking Action

Discussion Movement

I have had ENOUGH

#FeedThe9

By 2050, will we have enough?

Today’s 3 Food Security Realities

#FeedThe9

FEEDING MORE WITH LESS

By overusing our resources, it takes

Years for the earth to regenerate annual

consumption

An Urgent Window of Time

2050: 9B Today: 7B

GROWING MIDDLE CLASS

BILLION Join the middle class 3

Fastest growth to occur

between now and

2020 Source: FAO, OECD

INCREASING DEMAND FOR MEAT, MILK & EGGS

We will need More animal-sourced foods

Source: FAO

#FeedThe9

Our Vision for a Food Secure World

ACCESS Milk, meat &

eggs for all

AFFORDABLE Better food, better

prices

STABILITY Plentiful food limits

unrest

RESOURCES Feeding more with

less

HEALTH Less disease, hunger

& obesity

How will we meet beef demand in 2050?

Meat Milk Energy Control

Incr

ease

in E

nd o

f Ter

m T

est S

core

s

The Importance of Meat, Milk and Eggs (Over 5 School Terms)

Neumann, C.G. et al. “Meat Supplementation Improves Growth, Cognitive, and Behavioral Outcomes in Kenyan Children.” Journal of Nutrition, 2007.

When diets are supplemented with meat or milk, learning and test scores improve. Quality of nutrients versus just quantity of calories matter.

Why meat matters

Health Benefits of Beef." Beef Bytes #1. National Cattlemen's Beef Association. Accessed Oct. 16,

Beef is a good source of iron, B12 and protein. Cattle and water buffalo consume grasses and plant matter humans cannot digest, and graze on land that cannot be cultivated for human foods

Benefits of Beef

Cattle are raised in the U.S., E.U., Brazil and Australia

Around the world, the majority of the beef supply comes from cattle and water buffalo

Water Buffalo and Cattle are raised in India and China

The Top Six Beef Producers

Knapp, J. Elanco Animal Health. 2014 Food Forward: Global Beef Story. Data on file.


Demand for Beef After flat global demand over the past 20 years, average weekly beef consumption per person is expected to increase from 182 grams or 6.4 ounces in 2010 to 194 grams or 6.8 ounces in 2050.

By 2050, we will need 43% more beef

28.7 million metric tonnes 31.6 million tons



(mill

ion

met

ric to

nnes

of b

eef)

95.2 66.7

28.7



Will we raise an additional 710 million cattle and water buffalo?

If we continue to use only the farming practices available today, we will need to raise nearly 2.38 billion cattle and water buffalo. And we’ll use 43% more grazing forage and water in 2050!

2010 2050 Frozen Innovation


Grazed Forage: Water:

13.1 Billion Metric

Tonnes

18.7 Billion Metric

Tonnes

5.76 Trillion Liters


Or will we use innovation to improve efficiency?

With continued innovation, we can produce 43% more beef with fewer than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo. More importantly, we can freeze the environmental footprint of beef production!

Grazed Forage: Water:


2050 Continued Innovation


2050 Continued Innovation

13.1 Billion Metric

Tonnes

18.7 Billion Metric

Tonnes





13.1 Billion Metric

Tonnes

How can innovation help beef production? Improved, year-round nutrition combined with other farming best practices can help cattle and water buffalo grow more efficiently.

Typical Global Steer Growth Minimal Use of Farming Best Practices 5 years to reach maturity 260 kg(573 lb) of bone-in beef 26.2 kg (57.8 lb) of feed per kilogram of beef

Optimal Steer Growth Improved Use of Farming Best Practices 2 years to reach maturity 330 kg (727.5 lb) of bone-in beef 13.3 kg (29.3lb) of feed per kilogram of beef

2 Years 5 Years


> Grazed Forage Savings 5.6 billion metric tonnes saved 6.2 billion tons saved

More beef. Real resource savings. 43% more beef with less than 1.7 billion cattle and water buffalo in 2050*

Water Savings 2.48 trillion liters saved 655 billion gallons saved

= 43% less

forage and grazing land = 43% less

water

*Savings are based on comparison of frozen innovation in 2050 versus continued improvements in the use of innovation in 2050


ACCESS Milk, meat &

eggs for all

AFFORDABLE Better food, better

prices

STABILITY Plentiful food limits

unrest

RESOURCES Feeding more with

less

HEALTH Less disease, hunger

& obesity

Our Vision for a Food Secure World

#FeedThe9

Where there is no vision, people perish.

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE

Solution #1: The Power of Innovation

Experts’ Solutions Critically Important

Policy that supports improved practices in the developing world Adoption of technology Policy encouraging technology application Education on better practices

Reducing food waste

Organic production

Not at All Important

Consumer Opinion: How They Compare

POTENTIAL GLOBAL HUNGER SOLUTIONS (BASE)

CONSUMERS* (2,005)

International Experts** (16)

Policy that supports improved practices in the developing world

Adoption of Technology

Improved food distribution

Small holder farmer education on better practices

Policy that encourages technology application

Increasing organic production

Increasing food aid

4.0 4.4

3.9 4.2

3.9 4.1

3.9 4.1

3.8 4.2

3.6 1.7

3.5 2.5

Solution #2: Ensuring Consumer Choice

What Consumers Want “Our World has changed, our measures are better.”

Then Now

#FeedThe9

Headlines Media mentions

Aided Questions Unaided Questions

Call Inquiries Consumer spending

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE

Antibiotics: Trend Report

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE

#FeedThe9

#FeedThe9

2013 International Consumer Attitudes Study (ICAS) 2nd Edition: May 2013

Fringe • Food bans • Restrictions • Propositions

Luxury Buyer: 4% • Luxury/Gourmet • Organic/Local • Gardens

Food Buyer: 95% • Taste • Cost • Nutrition

34 studies 26 countries

100,000+ consumers

Spending data Unaided

questions

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE

Price Matters Most

#FeedThe9

Cost

Purchase Influencers

Taste Nutrition Other

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE

Solution #3: Trade – Food Must Move

Trade Increases Sustainability

#FeedThe9

Food Must Move Growing food in places with resources and moving it to places that need it

Provides sustainable, affordable food in countries that can’t produce it.

Transportation = less than 4% of environmental impact of food production

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE

Expanding Trade Requires Will Reducing and eliminating tariffs. Expanding trade agreements.

#FeedThe9

Food, Beverage, Tobacco Products

Animal, Fish Vegetable Products

Textiles, wood pulp

Machinery, transportation

Tariffs Highest on Food

0% 10% 20%

INNOVATION

TRADE CHOICE Brett Stuart, Global Agri-Trends. Global Trade Analysis based on World Trade Organization, Average WTO duties by country. 2011

18%

10%

6%

12%

Trade Increases Availability and Affordability

Source: GTIS, Global AgriTrends

10-Yr Avg GDP/Capita Growth: +1.4%

Mexico Pork Consumption Lb

s/Ca

pita

Imported Domestic

Take Action

Sign and share the ENOUGH declaration

Post the ENOUGH Twibbon on your social profile

Engage – Download the ENOUGH toolkit. Connect with a Face of Food Security.

Join the #Feedthe9 conversation on Twitter.

Follow @elanco, @jeffsimmons2050

Go to SensibleTable.com to join the movement, including:

www.sensibletable.com

#FeedThe9

www.sensibletable.com @jeffsimmons2050

@elanco

We’ve had enough. If you have too, join us. It’s time we #FeedThe9.

http://www.sensibletable.com/

Environment

Jose Roberto Peres - Enough Beef Now and into the Future: Global Beef Balance Trends