Environmental Impact of Energy Transition in Indonesia

Anjar Priandoyoaap519 @york.ac.uk

• Meeting point of Eurasian Plate and Australian Plate• 17,000+ Islands, 200+ Active Volcanoes, 40% World Geothermal Resources• #3 Largest Tropical Rainforest, #2 Exporter of Coal & Palm Oil, OPEC Member• #4 Largest Population, Developing Countries, GDP Per Capita $ 3,500, Largest Muslim Country

Where is Indonesia ?

IntroductionUNDERSTANDING ENERGY TRANSITION IS IMPORTANT

• Indonesia is a country with unsustainable energy development. It is indicated by large dependency of fossil fuel such as coal and oil, massive exploitation of natural resources such as palm oil and use of traditional biomass fuel.

• Indonesia is one of largest emitter of air pollutants in Asia. High rates of emissions are expected from intensive energy related activities and biomass open burning including forest fires.

• Unsustainable energy development is one of the biggest contributor of air pollution in Indonesia. Clean energy transition is required to ensure sustainable energy development

The Complexity of TransitionFIRST AND BEST DOES NOT ALWAYS WIN THE RACE

Fuel Status Year SizeLPG Success 2007-

201050 million HH

Coal Briquettes

Fail 2006-2007

1 million HH

Palm Oil Success 2010-2014

2 Mton (7% palm oil production), 7 Million vehicles

Jatropha curcas

Fail 2006-2008

< 0.1 Mton, Japan planted since 1942

Sugar Cane

Fail 2006-2008

<2 Mton

Households

Transports

The Complexity of TransitionLARGE SCALE TRANSITION IS UNPREDICTABLE

In 1900, Indonesia’s main energy source is coal which accounted for 70% of energy mix. By 1960, oil which 70% of energy mix and as of 2010, Oil accounted for 52% Gas 29%, Coal 15%, Renewable 5%

Transition Kerosene to LPG Biodiesel Geothermal CoalTimeframe 2007-2010 2010-2014 1980-2010 1989-1999Market or Sector

Urban and Rural Households Transportation Electricity National Energy

SupplyAnnual Growth Rate 401% 92% 7.83% 30%

Main Factors Increased Oil Price

Declining Palm Oil Price, Increased Oil Price

Market Liberalization,Increased Oil Price

Commodity Boom, Electrification Program

Ring of Fire2004 Indonesia 9.2 SR Tsunami (160,000 deaths)Tsunami affecting 0.3% Indonesian GDP2006 Jogjakarta Earthquake (5,600 deaths)200+ volcano, 40+ active volcano

1992, 1997, 2002, 2014 Forest Fire2.5 Million Hectare Size Forest FireCO2 15.95 Mt CO2/day Emission$15.72bn; £10.5bn (1.9% Indonesian GDP)1997 Forest Fires release 2.57 Gt Carbon (Nature)

• The 1997-1998 El Nino prompted the burning of 9.7 million hectare of forests and cost Indonesia approximately US$9 billion. During the El Nino event, over 2 million hectares of peat swamp forests were burned. Estimated 0.81 and 2.57 gigatonnes (Gt) Co2 is released

• In 2015, affected 31 million ha, estimated 1 giga ton Co2

El-Nino and Forest Fire

Research ObjectiveA COMBINATION OF QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE APPROACH IS PERFORMED TO UNDERSTAND THE IMPACT OF ENERGY TRANSITION

• Develop the emission inventory as the basis of environmental impact of energy transition. The focus of emission inventory would be on Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCP).

• Identify the enablers and obstacle of energy transition in Indonesia. A qualitative analysis using semi-structured interview is used.

• Determine the wider health and environmental impacts resulting from energy transition from the use of renewable energy or clean energy sources. The analysis is performed using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP).

Semi Structured InterviewTO IDENTIFY ENABLERS AND OBSTACLE OF TRANSITIONNo Group Institution Respondent

1 Private Sector Indonesian Energy State Owned CompanyIndonesia SOE - EPC Engineering Company

3

2 Private Sector Multinational Energy CompanyMultinational Bank

3

3 Private Sector Energy ConsultantManagement Consultant

5

4 NGO - Energy International Energy & Environment NGOIndonesian Energy NGO

5

5 NGO - Researcher Indonesian UniversityIndonesian Research Institution

5

6 Government - Energy Ministry of Energy 2

7 Government - Finance Ministry of Finance 68 Regional Government Regional Government 5

Emission InventoriesTHE BASIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT

No Sectors1 Combustion in the Energy Industries2 Combustion in Manufacturing Industries3 Transport4 Combustion in Other Sectors5 Fugitive emissions (non-combustion) for fuels6 Industrial processes (non-combustion) emissions7 Solvent and other product use8 Agriculture9 Vegetation fires and Forestry

10 Waste

No Area1 Brick kilns2 Coke production technology split3 Oil production data4 Methane from coal mining5 Road transport6 Residential biomass fuel consumption7 Crop residue open-burning8 Rice cultivation9 Solid waste incineration by open burning

10 Municipal solid waste in landfill11 Domestic wastewater treatment and discharge

Long Term Energy PlanningWHAT IS THE OPTIMAL ENERGY SCENARIO FOR INDONESIA

Emission Inventories

Scenario Analysis

Scenario Development

Clean Energy Transition

Renewable Energy Transition

Alternative Energy Transition

Basic Services Development

Field Work

“….Indonesia producing 1.2 billion traditional bricks annually (2013). Rice husks and wood is main fuel that used to cook bricks. A bricks

can be cooked up to 7 days…”

Location: Cirebon, West Java November 2016

Field Work

“….Traditional lime production in Indonesia. Natural gas is used

for fuel in lime processing…”

Location: Cirebon, West Java November 2016

Thank You

Wind and Solar Map

• Java Island is 30% smaller than Great Britain• 150+ million population (from total 250+ mill)

18+ active volcano (from total 200+ volcano)

Java Island