PROJECT FUNDED BY CLIMATE DEVELOPMENT KNOWLEDGE NETWORK (CDKN) AND

MANAGED BY CARIBSAVE.

PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR : ARPITA MANDAL

LECTURER, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY

UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES, MONA CAMPUS,

KINGSTON, JAMAICA

arpita.mandal@uwimona.edu.jm

CLIMATE CHANGE AND INLAND FLOODING IN JAMAICA – RISK AND ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES

Outline

OBJECTIVES

OUPUTS

STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS

COMMUNICATION STRATEGY FOR THE PROJECT

Specific Project Objectives The specific objectives of the project are :

To provide a historic overview of the frequency and severity of flooding for the

watersheds under study.

Assess local knowledge, attitudes and practice (KAP) of project communities towards

climate change, increase KAP towards climate change, and institute climate change into

the curriculum of basic and primary schools.

Create downscaled regional climate projections (medium and long term) for the

watersheds of Yallahs and South Negril Orange river using PRECIS Regional Climate

Model.

Creation of flood hazard maps for Yallahs (St Thomas) and South Negril-Orange river

(Westmoreland, Negril) watersheds using HEC and LISFLOOD-FP models. Maps created

for specific storms and 100 yr rainfall event.

Dissemination of results through community workshops, television and radio interviews

and through publication in peer reviewed academic journals.

Study Areas

Flood

model

domain

Buildings

Outputs

44% 41%

14%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Hurricanes TropicalStorms

TropicalDepressions

PER

CEN

TAG

E O

F O

CC

UR

REN

CE

Rainfall and

Hurricanes

show a high R2

with flood

events.

R2= 0.70

R2= 0.73

Hazard Evaluation Categorical Variables Continuous Variables Binary Variables

ArcGIS Spatial Analyst and SPSS Statistical Software

Tropical Storm Gustav: Results

Maximum flood depth

(m)

HEC-HMS

15-minute rainfall

LISFLOOD-FP

Generation of flow data for upstream input and subcatchment inflows

Routing of flood wave along main channel and across floodplain

1. P

AST

FLO

OD

EV

ENT

2

. RET

UR

N P

ERIO

D A

NA

LYSI

S 3

. FU

TUR

E C

LIM

ATE

AN

ALY

SIS

SUM

MA

RY

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N

YALLAHS

NEGRIL

Topographically constrained flooding

Estimation of current 100yr flood depth maps 2

. RET

UR

N P

ERIO

D A

NA

LYSI

S 1

. PA

ST F

LOO

D E

VEN

T

3. F

UTU

RE

CLI

MA

TE A

NA

LYSI

S SU

MM

AR

Y IN

TRO

DU

CTI

ON

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N

1. P

AST

FLO

OD

EV

ENT

2. R

ETU

RN

PER

IOD

AN

ALY

SIS

4. F

UTU

RE

CLI

MA

TE A

NA

LYSI

S SU

MM

AR

Y

3. S

TOR

M S

UR

GE

AN

ALY

SIS

Future annual exceedance

probability, surge/ SLR

(high)

Present annual

exceedance probability,

surge

• Buildings at risk:

substantially more affected in

future rainfall/ SLR scenario

• Greatest hazard for buildings

is along the coast

Buildings: probability of inundation Hazard to buildings

Future 100-yr,

surge + SLR (high)

Haz = Depth *

(Velocity+1.5) (DEFRA, 2003)

Estimation of future flood risk: results

Estimation of future flood risk: results

Present annual exceedance probability

2070-2099 annual exceedance probability

(ECHAM, B1)

No reduction in inundation risk in valley

Lower risk downstream

Maps of exceedance probability: Green: 4% (25 year return period) Blue: 2% (50 year return period) Red: 1% (100 year return period)

3. F

UTU

RE

CLI

MA

TE A

NA

LYSI

S 2

. RET

UR

N P

ERIO

D A

NA

LYSI

S 1

. PA

ST F

LOO

D E

VEN

T

SUM

MA

RY

INTR

OD

UC

TIO

N

OUTPUTS

STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS

FLOOD HAZARD MAPS FOR PRESENT AND FUTURE : TO BE REFINED

WITH ONGOING CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL.

CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND DOWNSCALING HAS BEEN REFINED

AND FINAL MODEL IS IN PROGRESS.

PUBLICATIONS IN PROGRESS.

COMMUNICATION STRATEGY FOR THE PROJECT

UPLOAD OF FINAL MAPS THROUGH GEONODE – OPEN SOURCE WEB

PLATFORM : http://cariska.mona.edu

•STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP CONDUCTED IN MAY 2014

•TRAINING ON FLOOD MODELS CONDUCTED IN MAY 2014

•COMMUNITY MEETINGS AND RADIO TELECAST