PROJECT FUNDED BY CLIMATE DEVELOPMENT KNOWLEDGE NETWORK (CDKN) AND
MANAGED BY CARIBSAVE.
PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR : ARPITA MANDAL
LECTURER, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY
UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES, MONA CAMPUS,
KINGSTON, JAMAICA
CLIMATE CHANGE AND INLAND FLOODING IN JAMAICA – RISK AND ADAPTATION MEASURES FOR VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES
Outline
OBJECTIVES
OUPUTS
STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS
COMMUNICATION STRATEGY FOR THE PROJECT
Specific Project Objectives The specific objectives of the project are :
To provide a historic overview of the frequency and severity of flooding for the
watersheds under study.
Assess local knowledge, attitudes and practice (KAP) of project communities towards
climate change, increase KAP towards climate change, and institute climate change into
the curriculum of basic and primary schools.
Create downscaled regional climate projections (medium and long term) for the
watersheds of Yallahs and South Negril Orange river using PRECIS Regional Climate
Model.
Creation of flood hazard maps for Yallahs (St Thomas) and South Negril-Orange river
(Westmoreland, Negril) watersheds using HEC and LISFLOOD-FP models. Maps created
for specific storms and 100 yr rainfall event.
Dissemination of results through community workshops, television and radio interviews
and through publication in peer reviewed academic journals.
Study Areas
Flood
model
domain
Buildings
Outputs
44% 41%
14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Hurricanes TropicalStorms
TropicalDepressions
PER
CEN
TAG
E O
F O
CC
UR
REN
CE
Rainfall and
Hurricanes
show a high R2
with flood
events.
R2= 0.70
R2= 0.73
Hazard Evaluation Categorical Variables Continuous Variables Binary Variables
ArcGIS Spatial Analyst and SPSS Statistical Software
Tropical Storm Gustav: Results
Maximum flood depth
(m)
HEC-HMS
15-minute rainfall
LISFLOOD-FP
Generation of flow data for upstream input and subcatchment inflows
Routing of flood wave along main channel and across floodplain
1. P
AST
FLO
OD
EV
ENT
2
. RET
UR
N P
ERIO
D A
NA
LYSI
S 3
. FU
TUR
E C
LIM
ATE
AN
ALY
SIS
SUM
MA
RY
INTR
OD
UC
TIO
N
YALLAHS
NEGRIL
Topographically constrained flooding
Estimation of current 100yr flood depth maps 2
. RET
UR
N P
ERIO
D A
NA
LYSI
S 1
. PA
ST F
LOO
D E
VEN
T
3. F
UTU
RE
CLI
MA
TE A
NA
LYSI
S SU
MM
AR
Y IN
TRO
DU
CTI
ON
INTR
OD
UC
TIO
N
1. P
AST
FLO
OD
EV
ENT
2. R
ETU
RN
PER
IOD
AN
ALY
SIS
4. F
UTU
RE
CLI
MA
TE A
NA
LYSI
S SU
MM
AR
Y
3. S
TOR
M S
UR
GE
AN
ALY
SIS
Future annual exceedance
probability, surge/ SLR
(high)
Present annual
exceedance probability,
surge
• Buildings at risk:
substantially more affected in
future rainfall/ SLR scenario
• Greatest hazard for buildings
is along the coast
Buildings: probability of inundation Hazard to buildings
Future 100-yr,
surge + SLR (high)
Haz = Depth *
(Velocity+1.5) (DEFRA, 2003)
Estimation of future flood risk: results
Estimation of future flood risk: results
Present annual exceedance probability
2070-2099 annual exceedance probability
(ECHAM, B1)
No reduction in inundation risk in valley
Lower risk downstream
Maps of exceedance probability: Green: 4% (25 year return period) Blue: 2% (50 year return period) Red: 1% (100 year return period)
3. F
UTU
RE
CLI
MA
TE A
NA
LYSI
S 2
. RET
UR
N P
ERIO
D A
NA
LYSI
S 1
. PA
ST F
LOO
D E
VEN
T
SUM
MA
RY
INTR
OD
UC
TIO
N
OUTPUTS
STATUS OF KNOWLEDGE PRODUCTS
FLOOD HAZARD MAPS FOR PRESENT AND FUTURE : TO BE REFINED
WITH ONGOING CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL.
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS AND DOWNSCALING HAS BEEN REFINED
AND FINAL MODEL IS IN PROGRESS.
PUBLICATIONS IN PROGRESS.
COMMUNICATION STRATEGY FOR THE PROJECT
UPLOAD OF FINAL MAPS THROUGH GEONODE – OPEN SOURCE WEB
PLATFORM : http://cariska.mona.edu
•STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP CONDUCTED IN MAY 2014
•TRAINING ON FLOOD MODELS CONDUCTED IN MAY 2014
•COMMUNITY MEETINGS AND RADIO TELECAST