BRIAN VAD MATHIESEN

bvm@plan .aau .dk , @br i anvad

Breakfas t Seminar : Coa l phase -ou t i n F i n l and , UK, Denmark and Germany

Al to Un i vers i ty , He l s i nk i , F i n l and , AUG/29 2017

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANNING RESEARCH GROUP

AALBORG UNIVERSITY

DENMARK SEEKS TO CREATE GREEN GROWTH WITH THE

GOAL OF 100 PERCENT RENEWABLE ENERGY USE BY 2050 – HOW TO GET RID OF COAL?

Bio

mas

s

Ph

oto

Vo

ltai

cs

Win

d p

ow

er

Danish Potentials0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Primary Energy Supply, PJ

Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport

40 YEARS OF ENERGY

PLANNING AND

MARKET DESIGN 90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

1980 '8

2

'84

'86

'88

'90

'92

'94

'96

'98

2000 '0

2

'04

'06

'08

'10

Ind

eks

Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP

L O W C O N S U M P T I O N

L O W C O S T S

S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y

L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S

RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES

FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

F L E X I B L E

T E C H N O L O G I E S

I N T E G R A T E D

E N E R G Y

S Y S T E M S

Savings in Energy

Denmand

Efficiencyimprovements

in energyproduction

Renewableenergy

sources (RES)

100% Renewable Energy in 2050

Coherent 2050 analyses

• 100% is possible technically and economically feasible with smart energy systems

• Future need to focus on transmission between the sectors instead of only between countries

• A flexible system is robust with regards to costs and biomass consumption. It uses storages intelligently

• It provides more jobs (50.000) and lower health costs than fossil fuel systems

• In addition export potentials are 20-25 B€ with additional jobs

Three focus areas for buildings

Reduce energy consumption

• We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings

Cost of Heat

Savings (€/kWh)

Amount of Savings (TWh)

Cost of Supplying Heat

OverviewNye energikilder

- nye lagrings muligheder

Bygningers energimæssige

ydeevne

Bygningsdrift og brugeradfærd

Buildings focuses

• Buildings consumption should be reduced • Buildings should be able to be heated with lower

temperatures (e.g. using District Heating and Heat Pumps)

• Certain buildings can transfer to district cooling• Heavy effort on excising buildings • Focus on energy with general renovation

Not only technical savings… - Next focuses should include behavior and operation

Nye energikilder - nye lagrings muligheder

Bygningers energimæssige

ydeevne

Bygningsdrift og brugeradfærd

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/03605442

How should buildings be smart?

• Need to reduce demands for heating and electricity (preferably ~50% reduction) – Smart technical solutions are there

• Focus on operation and behavior – It is smart to effect behavior

• Do we need to move demands with smart meters on the building level?

P U M P H Y D R O S T O R A G E

1 7 5 € / K W H

N A T U R A L G A S

U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E

0 . 0 5 € / K W H

O I L T A N K

0 . 0 2 € / K W H

T H E R M A L

S T O R A G E

1 - 4 € / K W H

Energy Storage

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3

Pri

ce (

€/M

Wh

)

Thermal storage: Price and Size

T H E R M A L

S T O R A G E

1 - 4 € / K W H

Thermal Energy Storage

Resources for Danish District Heating 1972-2015

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

1 9

72

1 9

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

20

10

20

13

Dan

ish

Dis

tric

t H

eati

ng

Fuel

Mix

(%

)

Geothermal

Electricity

Solar

Bioenergy

Waste: Biodegradable

Waste: Non-Biodegradable

Coal

Gas

Oil

Proven Technology!Renewable Energy vs. District Heating

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Ren

ewab

le E

ner

gy S

har

e in

Hea

tin

g &

C

oo

ling

(%)

District Heating Share (%)

Austria Belgium

Bulgaria Croatia

Cyprus Czech Republic

Denmark Estonia

Finland France

Germany Greece

Hungary Ireland

Italy Latvia

Lithuania Luxembourg

Malta Netherlands

Poland Portugal

Romania Slovak Republic

Slovenia Spain

Sweden United Kingdom

This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989.

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

Key Recommendations for the Heat Sector

Everywhere

Heat Savings

Balance Savings vs. Supply

30-50% Total Reduction

Urban Areas

District Heating Networks

High Heat Density Areas

Supply ~50% of the Heat Demand

Rural Areas

Primarily Electric Heat Pumps

Smaller Shares of Solar Thermal & Biomass

Boilers

Remaining ~50% of the Heat Demand

Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)

Heat Demand Suitable for DH

10 PJ/Year

Excess Heat35 PJ/Year

Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu

Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)

Heat Demand Suitable for DH

10 PJ/Year

Excess Heat35 PJ/Year

Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu

10 km

Access to More Sustainable Resources: These Can Only Be Used with District Heating

• Excess heat from Power Plants• Industrial Excess Heat• Waste Incineration• Bio-refinary Excess Heat• Synthetic fuel Excess Heat (electrofuels)• Large-Scale Solar Thermal• Geothermal• Large-Scale Heat Pumps (new study out)• Large-Scale Electric Boilers• Bioenergy for Urban Heating

• …and use of thermal storages

Czech Republic Croatia

Italy Romania United Kingdom 19

Specific Map & Summary Report for each country

Stratego: Final Levels of Each Energy Efficiency Measure in the

Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling Strategies

20

Heat Roadmaps Heat Savings District HeatingIndividual Heating

Technology

District Heat Supply

from Renewable

Heat & Excess Heat*

Reduction as a

Percentage of the BAU

2050 Heat Demand

% of Total Heat

Demand after Heat

Savings (vs. % today)

Primary Technology% of District Heat

Production

Czech Republic 40% 40% (25%) Heat pumps are

recommended as

the primary

technology with

small shares for

biomass boilers, and

solar thermal. The

exact mix of each

technology is not

optimised.

65%

Croatia 40% 40% (15%) 45%

Italy 30% 60% (<5%) 40%

Romania 50% 40% (20%) 50%

United Kingdom 40% 70% (<5%) 45%

*Doesn’t include excess heat from thermal power plants or thermal boilers.

www.heatroadmap.eu

@HeatRoadmapEU

Example of Results for UK

• 480 TWh: Total heat demand in buildings

• 410 TWh: Potential Excess Heat Available (excluding nuclear)• 65 TWh: Renewable Heat Potential in DH areas (excluding biomass)

• Heat Savings can cost-effectively reduce the demand by 40% (estimate)

• District heating can provide 70% of the heat demand, due to high heat densities (>100 TJ/km2), compared to <5% today

Can reduce:

Cost: -10%

Demand: -20%

CO2: -25%

Can Increase:

Renewables

Jobs

W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U

W W W . H E AT R O A D M A P . E U

W W W . S M AR T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U

W W W . 4 D H . D K

W W W . R E I N V E S T P R O J E C T . E U