BRIAN VAD MATHIESEN
bvm@plan .aau .dk , @br i anvad
Breakfas t Seminar : Coa l phase -ou t i n F i n l and , UK, Denmark and Germany
Al to Un i vers i ty , He l s i nk i , F i n l and , AUG/29 2017
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANNING RESEARCH GROUP
AALBORG UNIVERSITY
DENMARK SEEKS TO CREATE GREEN GROWTH WITH THE
GOAL OF 100 PERCENT RENEWABLE ENERGY USE BY 2050 – HOW TO GET RID OF COAL?
Bio
mas
s
Ph
oto
Vo
ltai
cs
Win
d p
ow
er
Danish Potentials0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1970 '75 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Primary Energy Supply, PJ
Olie Naturgas Kul og koks Andet Biomasse Vindmøller Olie til transport
40 YEARS OF ENERGY
PLANNING AND
MARKET DESIGN 90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1980 '8
2
'84
'86
'88
'90
'92
'94
'96
'98
2000 '0
2
'04
'06
'08
'10
Ind
eks
Energiforbrug Danmark Danmark BNP
L O W C O N S U M P T I O N
L O W C O S T S
S E C U R I T Y O F S U P P L Y
L O W C O 2 - E M I S S I O N S
RENEWABLE ENERGY STRATEGIES
FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
F L E X I B L E
T E C H N O L O G I E S
I N T E G R A T E D
E N E R G Y
S Y S T E M S
Savings in Energy
Denmand
Efficiencyimprovements
in energyproduction
Renewableenergy
sources (RES)
100% Renewable Energy in 2050
Coherent 2050 analyses
• 100% is possible technically and economically feasible with smart energy systems
• Future need to focus on transmission between the sectors instead of only between countries
• A flexible system is robust with regards to costs and biomass consumption. It uses storages intelligently
• It provides more jobs (50.000) and lower health costs than fossil fuel systems
• In addition export potentials are 20-25 B€ with additional jobs
Three focus areas for buildings
Reduce energy consumption
• We should implement heat savings until the price of sustainable supply is less than the marginal price of additional savings
Cost of Heat
Savings (€/kWh)
Amount of Savings (TWh)
Cost of Supplying Heat
OverviewNye energikilder
- nye lagrings muligheder
Bygningers energimæssige
ydeevne
Bygningsdrift og brugeradfærd
Buildings focuses
• Buildings consumption should be reduced • Buildings should be able to be heated with lower
temperatures (e.g. using District Heating and Heat Pumps)
• Certain buildings can transfer to district cooling• Heavy effort on excising buildings • Focus on energy with general renovation
Not only technical savings… - Next focuses should include behavior and operation
Nye energikilder - nye lagrings muligheder
Bygningers energimæssige
ydeevne
Bygningsdrift og brugeradfærd
How should buildings be smart?
• Need to reduce demands for heating and electricity (preferably ~50% reduction) – Smart technical solutions are there
• Focus on operation and behavior – It is smart to effect behavior
• Do we need to move demands with smart meters on the building level?
P U M P H Y D R O S T O R A G E
1 7 5 € / K W H
N A T U R A L G A S
U N D E R G R O U N D S T O R A G E
0 . 0 5 € / K W H
O I L T A N K
0 . 0 2 € / K W H
T H E R M A L
S T O R A G E
1 - 4 € / K W H
Energy Storage
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
160 liter 4 m3 6200 m3 200.000 m3
Pri
ce (
€/M
Wh
)
Thermal storage: Price and Size
T H E R M A L
S T O R A G E
1 - 4 € / K W H
Thermal Energy Storage
Resources for Danish District Heating 1972-2015
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
1 9
72
1 9
77
19
80
19
83
19
86
19
89
19
92
19
95
19
98
20
01
20
04
20
07
20
10
20
13
Dan
ish
Dis
tric
t H
eati
ng
Fuel
Mix
(%
)
Geothermal
Electricity
Solar
Bioenergy
Waste: Biodegradable
Waste: Non-Biodegradable
Coal
Gas
Oil
Proven Technology!Renewable Energy vs. District Heating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Ren
ewab
le E
ner
gy S
har
e in
Hea
tin
g &
C
oo
ling
(%)
District Heating Share (%)
Austria Belgium
Bulgaria Croatia
Cyprus Czech Republic
Denmark Estonia
Finland France
Germany Greece
Hungary Ireland
Italy Latvia
Lithuania Luxembourg
Malta Netherlands
Poland Portugal
Romania Slovak Republic
Slovenia Spain
Sweden United Kingdom
This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 695989.
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
Key Recommendations for the Heat Sector
Everywhere
Heat Savings
Balance Savings vs. Supply
30-50% Total Reduction
Urban Areas
District Heating Networks
High Heat Density Areas
Supply ~50% of the Heat Demand
Rural Areas
Primarily Electric Heat Pumps
Smaller Shares of Solar Thermal & Biomass
Boilers
Remaining ~50% of the Heat Demand
Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)
Heat Demand Suitable for DH
10 PJ/Year
Excess Heat35 PJ/Year
Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu
Case Study: Middlesbrough, UK (350,000 People)
Heat Demand Suitable for DH
10 PJ/Year
Excess Heat35 PJ/Year
Pan-European Thermal Atlas: www.heatroadmap.eu
10 km
Access to More Sustainable Resources: These Can Only Be Used with District Heating
• Excess heat from Power Plants• Industrial Excess Heat• Waste Incineration• Bio-refinary Excess Heat• Synthetic fuel Excess Heat (electrofuels)• Large-Scale Solar Thermal• Geothermal• Large-Scale Heat Pumps (new study out)• Large-Scale Electric Boilers• Bioenergy for Urban Heating
• …and use of thermal storages
Czech Republic Croatia
Italy Romania United Kingdom 19
Specific Map & Summary Report for each country
Stratego: Final Levels of Each Energy Efficiency Measure in the
Low-Carbon Heating and Cooling Strategies
20
Heat Roadmaps Heat Savings District HeatingIndividual Heating
Technology
District Heat Supply
from Renewable
Heat & Excess Heat*
Reduction as a
Percentage of the BAU
2050 Heat Demand
% of Total Heat
Demand after Heat
Savings (vs. % today)
Primary Technology% of District Heat
Production
Czech Republic 40% 40% (25%) Heat pumps are
recommended as
the primary
technology with
small shares for
biomass boilers, and
solar thermal. The
exact mix of each
technology is not
optimised.
65%
Croatia 40% 40% (15%) 45%
Italy 30% 60% (<5%) 40%
Romania 50% 40% (20%) 50%
United Kingdom 40% 70% (<5%) 45%
*Doesn’t include excess heat from thermal power plants or thermal boilers.
www.heatroadmap.eu
@HeatRoadmapEU
Example of Results for UK
• 480 TWh: Total heat demand in buildings
• 410 TWh: Potential Excess Heat Available (excluding nuclear)• 65 TWh: Renewable Heat Potential in DH areas (excluding biomass)
• Heat Savings can cost-effectively reduce the demand by 40% (estimate)
• District heating can provide 70% of the heat demand, due to high heat densities (>100 TJ/km2), compared to <5% today
Can reduce:
Cost: -10%
Demand: -20%
CO2: -25%
Can Increase:
Renewables
Jobs
W W W . E N E R G Y P L A N . E U
W W W . H E AT R O A D M A P . E U
W W W . S M AR T E N E R G Y S Y S T E M S . E U
W W W . 4 D H . D K
W W W . R E I N V E S T P R O J E C T . E U