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Adapting Forests to Climate Change
Maria JanowiakMarch 29, 2017
Vermont Agency of Natural Resourceswebinar series
Desired ConditionsNatural Forest
Dynamics
Wildlife Habitat
Past Management
History
Invasives Timber Sale Revenue
Disturbance:Past + Future
Recreation
Forest Health
And more!!Climate Change
Plan & Project Requirements
Partnerships
Vulnerability Assessment
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Demonstrations
Climate Change Response Framework
Components: Progress:
125+ partner organizations (and counting)
8 published assessments, 1 in prep
Published in 2012, 2nd edition in 2016,& online workbook
200+ demonstrations underway
Structured, process oriented, works on multiple scales
www.forestadaptation.org
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment
• Series of reports for natural resource professionals
• Focus on tree species and forest ecosystems
• Examine a range of future climates
• Evaluate key ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change
• Does not make recommendations or assess vulnerability to changes in mgmt., land use, policy
New England & Northern New York
• Synthesize existing literature and climate change assessments
• Incorporate new results from models projecting forest response to climate change
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Vulnerability Assessment Contents
• Current Forest Condition
• Observed Climate Change
• Future Climate Change
• Climate Change Impacts on Forests
• Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability
• Implications for Forest Management
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
Climate Change Tree Atlas: suitable habitat
LINKAGES: species establishment
LANDIS: productivity and composition
Generally Challenges
• Reduced growth: moisture stress
• Decline of northern/boreal species
• Disturbance from extreme events
• Wildfire potential
• Forests pests & disease
• Invasive species
Generally Opportunities
• Increased productivity: longer growing season
• Increased productivity: more CO2
• Increased habitat for some species
Depends on SITE and OBJECTIVES!
Effects on Forests
www.forestadaptation.org/ne-assessment
What actions can be taken to
enhance the ability of a system to cope with change
and
meet conservation goals and objectives?
Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Structured process to integrate climate change considerations into management.
• Workbook approachOrder a copy at: www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
• Reviewed adaptation literature
• Developed a menu of 10strategies and 38 approaches
• Refined based on comments from >50 reviewers
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches Menu
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies
Translating concepts to actions
Options (concepts): • Resistance, Resilience, Transition
Strategies:• Regionally specific conditions
Approaches:• Actions for a specific ecosystem
or forest type
Tactics: • Prescriptions for local conditions
and mgmt. objectives
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
RESISTANCE RESILIENCE TRANSITION
Improve defenses of forest against change
Maintain relatively unchanged conditions
Accommodate some degree of change
Return to prior condition after disturbance
Facilitate change Enable ecosystem to
respond to new and changing conditions
Millar et al. 2007
Options – big concepts for how to respond
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
ResistChange
Promote aTransition
EnhanceResilience
1: Sustain fundamental ecological functions.
2: Reduce existing biological stressors.
3: Reduce impacts of severe disturbances.
4: Maintain or create refugia.
5: Enhance species and structural diversity.
6: Promote ecosystem redundancy.
7: Increase landscape connectivity.
8: Enhance genetic diversity.
9: Facilitate species transitions.
10: Realign after disturbance.
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies
StrategiesOptions
The menu helps you create clear rationale
for your actions by connecting them to broader adaptation
ideas.
“Intentionality”
“Success”
Adaptation Strategies & Approaches
www.adaptationworkbook.org/niacs-strategies
Adaptation WorkbookAdaptation Workbook provides structured process to
integrate climate change considerations into management planning and activities
1. DEFINE area of interest, management objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the area of interest.
3. EVALUATE management objectives given projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and implement adaptation
approaches and tactics .
5. MONITOR and evaluate effectiveness
of implemented actions.
Vulnerability assessments,
scientific literature, and other resources
Adaptation Strategies and
Approaches
Adaptation WorkbookStep-by-step Adaptation Workbook for planning
Adaptation WorkbookStep-by-step Adaptation Workbook for planning
• Interactive, self-guided, flexible
• Access resources based on project location
• Creates custom adaptation plan based on inputs
• Distance learning courses
Why it’s important:Helps connect the dots from broad concepts to
specific actions for implementation.
Management Goals & Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Menu + Workbook: Connects the Dots
Not just forests…Expanding to more resource areas
Currently available:
• Forests
• Urban forests
• Agriculture
In development:
• Forested watersheds – draft in progress
• Carbon management
• Wildlife? Tribes & cultural resources?
• Other?
Real-world examplesHow are folks coping and dealing with uncertainty?
Develop local examplesof adaptation
www.forestadaptation.org/demos
200+Projects
underway
Adaptation Demonstrations
• Provide real-world examples of forest management activities that:• Enhance the ability of forests to cope with changing
conditions
• Achieve land owner management goals
• Foster cross-ownership dialogue and learning
• Illustrate diverse goals and approaches
Atlas Timberlands (VT)
www.forestadaptation.org/atlas
Sustainable forestry
Conservation
Atlas Timberlands (VT)
Current Management with
Adaptation Benefits
• Follow BMPs for water quality
• Increase coarse woody material
• Increase tree species diversity
• Increase forest structural
diversity
• Ensure adequate seedling
regeneration
• Control invasives
• Minimize roads & trails
Atlas Timberlands (VT)
Challenge: Shorter and more variable winters
Atlas Timberlands (VT)
• Road layout• Pre-sale road work• Temporary bridge installation
Adaptation Tactic: Summer harvest
Norcross Wildlife Sanctuary (MA/CT)
Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote native species adapted to future conditions
Trout Unlimited & Partners (VT/MA)
Increase tree species diversity & forest structure
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Increase stream connectivity
Reducing impacts from extreme events, low flows, etc.
The Nature Conservancy (ME)
Increase tree species diversity & forest
structure
Promote future-adapted tree species by
planting (red & black spruce, white pine)
Current White Pine Abundance
Providence Water (RI)
Water quality
Water quantity
Reduce impacts from forest pests and diseases
Promote future-adapted tree species by planting southern species
(black oak, pin oak, persimmon, pitch pine, shortleaf pine)
Minimize impacts from herbivory
If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s
“It depends”
It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.
Same actions–climate change
just makes them that
much more important
Small “tweaks” that improve effectiveness
New & different actions to consider, even some that may seem wild & crazy
*individual results will vary
Adaptation: The Real Story
Next time you’re in the woods
Take a look around & think about:
What’s important here?
How might it change?
What am I already doing to help?
What else can I do to help?
www.forestadaptation.org/NESAF2015
