Adapting Forests and Outline of Presentation Ecosystems · PDF fileEcosystems to Climate Change ... Natural Model Human Response -1400-1200-1000-800-600-400-200 0 200 400 600 ... Disturbance

OSU AED Policy & Outlook Fall 2007

Adapting Forests and Ecosystems to Climate Change

Brent SohngenDepartment of Agricultural, Environmental &

Development Economics,University Fellow, [email protected]

Outline of Presentation

• Key forest ecosystem impacts: General ecological results from IPCC and recent IUFRO assessment of impacts on forested ecosystems.

• Literature on economic impacts and adaptation

• Recent assessment of climate change impacts on forests and timber markets


Key Ecosystem Impacts• Productivity changes (IPCC, 2007)

– CO2 fertilization.– Warming in colder climates.– Precipitation gains where water is limited.

• Some current evidence that historical climate change and CO2 change have increased productivity to date (Boisvenue and Running, 2006).

• Potential limits to productivity gains: Net impacts– Species composition, age structure, seasonal and daily precipitation and temperature patterns, etc.

– Drying and forest fire effects

Key Ecosystem Impacts• Net effects ultimately weigh down gains: Ecosystems turn from carbon sink to source within the next several decades.

IPCC (2007) WG 2, Chapter 4, Figure 4.2IPCC (2007) WG 2, Chapter 4, Figure 4.2


Key Ecosystem Impacts

• Appreciable changes in ecosystems from 2000 to 2100.

• Green‐Blue: +

• Red‐Yellow: ‐

A2A2

B1B1

IPCC (2007), WG 2, Ch. 4, Figure 4.3IPCC (2007), WG 2, Ch. 4, Figure 4.3

Summary: Timber market results to date

Region Output Producer Returns2000–2050 2050–2100

North America -4% to +10% +12 to +16% DecreasesEurope -4% to +5% +2 to +13% DecreasesRussia +2 to +6% +7 to +18% DecreasesSouth America +10 to +20% +20 to +50% IncreasesAus./New Zealand -3 to +12% -10 to +30% Decr. & Incr.Africa +5 to +14% +17 to +31% IncreasesChina +10 to +11% +26 to +29% IncreasesSE Asia +4 to +10% +14 to +30% Increases

Alig et al. (2002), Irland et al. (2001), Joyce et al. (1995, 2001), Perez-Garcia et al. (1997, 2002), Sohngen et al. (2001), Sohngen and Mendelsohn (1998, 1999), Sohngen and Sedjo (2005); 2 Karjalainen et al. (2003), Nabuurs et al. (2002), Perez-Garcia et al. (2002), Sohngen et al. (2001) ; Lelyakin et al. (1997),

Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change. 2009. Alexander Buck, Pia Katila and Risto Seppälä. (eds.). IUFRO World Series Volume 22. Helsinki. 224 p.


The role of human adaptation in current timber market studies.

• Stock Management is important– Huge stock of forests now available to manage. – Climate change favors faster growing species and quickens the adoption of faster growing plantation species.

– Favors expansion of output in sub‐tropical regions

• Fires and other losses can have important implications for output.– Example from North America

• Adaptation through harvesting and planting can reduce impacts on the carbon system in managed ecosystems.

Age m3/ha/yr $/ha

US Southern Pine 30 4.8 $3,180

S. China mixed 50 1.8 $771

Canada Boreal SW 70 1.6 $288

Russia Boreal SW 100 1.0 $58

South Amer. Eucalypt 10 7.0 $8,453

Oceania SW 30 13.5 $7,937





• Adaptation through harvesting and planting can reduce impacts on the carbon system in managed ecosystems.


Production Impacts in North AmericaAnnual change relative to baseline

Sohngen et al. (2001)

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Year

Mill

ion

m3

per y

ear

PNW

South

N Conifer

Temp Dec

Mountain

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

Year

Mill

ion

m3

per y

ear

PNW

SouthN Conifer

Temp DecMountain

Regeneration Scenarios

Dieback Scenarios

Note: Currently 4.2 Mha/yr of forest area burns in NA (2.5 CA, 1.7 US).

Dieback implies approximately additional 1.6 Mha/yr (38%) burn, with largest increases in northern areas.





• Adaptation in markets can limit carbon emissions in managed ecosystems.


Adaptation in managed ecosystems• Adaptation through harvesting and replanting substantially reduce the

losses that would otherwise occur if natural systems adapted on their own.

• Results below are for the US only

DOLY&TEM; UKMO

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1995 2015 2035 2055 2075 2095 2115 2135Year

Tg Carbon per Decade

Natural Model

Human Response

-1400

-1200

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1995 2015 2035 2055 2075 2095 2115 2135Year

Tg Carbon Per Decade

Natural Model

Human Response

MAPSS & B-BGC; UKMO

Sohngen et al., 1998

State of Adaptation Analysis

Adaptation of Forests and People to Climate Change. 2009. Alexander Buck, Pia Katila and Risto Seppälä. (eds.). IUFRO World Series Volume 22. Helsinki. 224 p.


Current analysis

• Climate Change: • A2, A1b scenarios• CSIRO, Hadley, MIROC models

• Ecological Analysis: DGVM• MC1 model (MAPPS and Century Model)

• Economic Analysis:• Global Land Use Model (Sohngen and Mendelsohn, 2007)

• Results rely on how DGVM results are used. CSIROCSIRO

MIROCMIROC

HADHAD

A2A2 A1BA1B B1B1

Change in tmax2070-2099 vs 1961-1990


A2A2 A1BA1B B1B1

% Change in precip.2070-2099 vs 1961-1990

MIROCMIROC

HADHAD

CSIROCSIRO

CSIRO A1b Example


CSIRO Example CSIRO Example


Indicators of Ecosystem Change: Proportional change in Aboveground C relative to 2005.Across climate scenarios (A2+ A1b + 3 climate models)

2040-2060 2080-2100

Indicators of Ecosystem Change:2040-2060 2080-2100

NPPNPP

%%BurnedBurnedEach Each YearYear


Indicators of Ecosystem Change: Potential forest area relative to 2005.

20402040--20602060 20802080--21002100

Approach to Economic Analysis

• Yield changes captured as:

• Stock losses captured as

• Model 1: Yield change is proportional to the change in aboveground C.

• Model 2: Stock losses due to burned area and yield change is proportional to NPP.

∑=

=A

atattA VV

1,,

&δ

( ) tatatatta ghXX ,1,,1,1 1 =++ +−−= γ

Two methods to account for ecosystem changes in timber management


Adaptations Incorporated

Model 2:

• Manage existing stock by• changing rotations• Salvage

• Replant new species if growing and economic conditions warrant

• Manage future stock by • Changing rotations• Changing management & investments

Model 1:

• Manage existing stock by

• changing rotations.

• Replant new species if growing and economic conditions warrant.

• Manage future stock by

• Changing rotations

• Changing management & investments

Global Forest Outputs: Million m3 per year.

Model 1: Yield shift only;

Proportional to aboveground C

Model 2:Yield shift proportional to NPPDisturbance due to burning


Regional Output ChangeProportional Change compared to Baseline

2040-2060 2080-2100

Mod. 1

Mod. 2


2040-2060 2080-2100

Mod. 1

Mod. 2


Canada Forest Outputs: Proportional Change relative to Baseline




Why the difference from Model 1 to 2 for Canada?

• Model 1: Aboveground C declines from the beginning.

Model 2: Forest burning builds over time



2040-2060 2080-2100

Mod. 1

Mod. 2

US Forest Outputs: Proportional Change relative to Baseline





Why the difference from Model 1 to 2 for the US?

• Model 1: Aboveground C increases from the beginning.

Model 2: Forest burning high to begin with

US/Canada Comparison

Canada

• Model 1: Output falls due to yield reductions over time

• Model 2: Output rises due to moderate dieback and increase in yield due to NPP change.

US

• Model 1: Output rises due to yield increases over time.

• Model 2: Output falls due to relatively high dieback and limited increase in yield due to NPP change.


Conclusions• Current results:

– Wide range of adaptation responses in managed forests: rotation age, species selection, management intensity, etc.

– Supply expands +5% to +30% over the century.– Adaptation can limit C emissions from disturbance.

• More recent results: – Supply response more limited than earlier studies: ‐5% to + 10%

• Still have a ways to go in assessing ecosystem impacts using economic/behavioral models.

• Not surprisingly, how ecological impacts are modeled affects market outcomes.

Documents

Adapting Forests and Outline of Presentation Ecosystems · PDF fileEcosystems to Climate Change ... Natural Model Human Response -1400-1200-1000-800-600-400-200 0 200 400 600 ... Disturbance