The Hardwood Forests in Changing Times - Adapting to New Realities

Charlie Becker

Utilization and Marketing Manager

Topic Areas

• The Hardwood Resource

• Market and Economic Conditions

• Thoughts on the Future

Hardwood Resource

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

50,000,000

Wh

ite

oak

/ r

ed o

ak /

hic

kory

Suga

r m

aple

/ b

eech

/ y

ello

w b

irch

Mix

ed u

pla

nd

har

dw

oo

ds

Lob

lolly

pin

e /

har

dw

oo

dP

ost

oak

/ b

lack

jack

oak

Suga

rber

ry /

hac

kber

ry /

elm

/ g

reen

…Sw

eetg

um

/ N

utt

all o

ak /

will

ow

oak

Har

d m

aple

/ b

assw

oo

dSw

eetg

um

/ y

ello

w-p

op

lar

Swee

tbay

/ s

wam

p t

up

elo

/ r

ed m

aple

Yello

w-p

op

lar

/ w

hit

e o

ak /

no

rth

ern

…A

spen

Ch

estn

ut

oak

/ b

lack

oak

/ s

carl

et o

akW

hit

e o

akEl

m /

ash

/ b

lack

locu

stC

her

ry /

wh

ite

ash

/ y

ello

w-p

op

lar

Sou

ther

n s

cru

b o

akSa

ssaf

ras

/ p

ersi

mm

on

Red

map

le /

up

lan

dC

hes

tnu

t o

akN

ort

her

n r

ed o

akSy

cam

ore

/ p

ecan

/ A

mer

ican

elm

Yello

w-p

op

lar

Red

map

le /

oak

East

ern

red

ced

ar /

har

dw

oo

dEa

ster

n w

hit

e p

ine

/ n

ort

her

n r

ed…

Oth

er h

ard

wo

od

sB

lack

ash

/ A

mer

ican

elm

/ r

ed m

aple

Bal

dcy

pre

ss /

wat

er t

up

elo

Sho

rtle

af p

ine

/ o

akR

ed m

aple

/ lo

wla

nd

Riv

er b

irch

/ s

ycam

ore

Vir

gin

ia p

ine

/ so

uth

ern

red

oak

Pap

er b

irch

Swam

p c

hes

tnu

t o

ak /

ch

erry

bar

k o

akSl

ash

pin

e /

har

dw

oo

dSi

lver

map

le /

Am

eric

an e

lmB

lack

ch

erry

Oth

er p

ine

/ h

ard

wo

od

Ove

rcu

p o

ak /

wat

er h

icko

ryW

illo

w

Acr

es

Forest Types

Total

Private

Total Eastern U.S. Forest Land - 443,823,672 AcresPrivate Eastern U.S. Forest Land - 362,069,614 Acres

Top Eastern U.S. Hardwood Forest Types

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Bil

lio

n C

ub

ic F

ee

t

Species Group

Other red oaks

Soft maple

Other soft hardwoods

Select white oaks

Yellow-poplar

Other white oaks

Select red oaks

Hard maple

Hickory

Sweetgum

Ash

Cottonwood and aspen

Tupelo and blackgum

Beech

Other hard hardwoods

Noncommercial hardwoods

Yellow birch

Eastern U.S. Hardwood Forestland Net Volume

Eastern U. S. Hardwood Regeneration

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Se

ed

lin

gs

(mill

ion

s)

Species Group

Noncommercial hardwoods

Other soft hardwoods

Soft maple

Sweetgum

Other red oaks

Other hard hardwoods

Cottonwood and aspen

Ash

Hard maple

Beech

Tupelo and blackgum

Hickory

Yellow-poplar

Select white oaks

Other white oaks

Select red oaks

Yellow birch

Basswood

Emerald Ash Borer

Gypsy Moth

15.9 Million Acres

80% Privately Owned

Virginia Forest Cover

61.5 % Forested

Virginia Forestland Acres

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

19071940195719661977198619922001200720102013

Millio

n a

cre

s

Year

Trend & Projection of Timberland Area in Virginia*

12,500,000

13,000,000

13,500,000

14,000,000

14,500,000

15,000,000

15,500,000

16,000,000

16,500,000

19

77

19

80

19

83

19

86

19

89

19

92

19

95

19

98

20

01

20

04

20

07

20

10

20

13

20

16

20

19

20

22

20

25

20

28

20

31

20

34

20

37

20

40

20

43

20

46

20

49

20

52

20

55

20

58

Acr

es

Year

High Projection

Trend & AverageProjection

Low Projection

*Southern Forest Futures Project & FIA

Since 1940, total volume has more than doubled from 15.5 to 36.1 billion cubic feet.

YEAR

Forest Growth(Volume of Live Trees on All Timberland)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1940 1957 1966 1977 1986 1992 2001 2010 2013

Hardwoods

Softwoods

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2001 2007 2011 2012

Statewide Annual Net Growth & Removals for Softwood & Hardwood

(MM Tons)

Hardwood Growth

Hardwood Removals

Source: USFS-FIA

Annual Net Growth and Removals

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2001 2007 2011 2012

Coastal Plain Annual Net Growth & Removals for Softwood and Hardwood

(MM Tons)

Hardwood Growth

Hardwood Removals

Source: USFS-FIA

Coastal Plain Net Growth and Removals

Volume & Area of Hardwood, 2013

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Tho

usa

nd

Acr

es

Federal

Private & State

Reduced Acres

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Mil

lio

n C

ub

ic f

ee

t

Federal

Private & State

Ten Most Common Trees in VA

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Pe

rce

nt

Species

% of Total Volume

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Pe

rce

nt

Species

% of Total Seedling Number*

*Advanced Regeneration - seedlings and saplings 1"-3" DiameterExcludes Understory tree species

• Frequent, moderate disturbance

• Abandoned marginal farmland

• Reduced wildlife (deer)

• Charcoal production• Chestnut blight• Fire

Why did oaks become so common?

Invasive Species

• Diseases - Chestnut Blight, Dutch Elm

Disease, Oak Wilt, Laurel Wilt, Thousand Canker Disease

• Insects - Gypsy Moth, Emerald Ash

Borer, Asian Longhorn Beetle

• Plants – Ailanthus, Honeysuckle, Kudzu,

Oriental Bittersweet, Autumn Olive, Stilt Grass, Paulownia

• “Deer”

Invasive Species

• 405,000 Individuals and Family landowners own 10.6 million acres of forest in Virginia

• 95% own less than 100 acres

• Average forest landowner owns between 30 and 50 acres

• Landowners 55 and older own over 70% of forestland

source: National Woodland Owners Survey http://www.fia.fs.fed.us/nwos

Non-Industrial Private Forest Ownership

So What Will the Forests of Tomorrow Look Like?

It Depends

Market & Economic Conditions

Present Conditions

• Low fuel prices are making it more economical to harvest and ship products

• Strong dollar makes our products more expensive overseas and imports cheaper

• Economic slowdowns in our major export markets are reducing demand

• U.S. housing and economy slowly improving• European policy impacting bioenergy markets• Virginia saw timber harvests at record levels• Legal & sustainable wood criteria is increasing

New Users of Hardwood Forest Resources

• Enviva Pellet Mills (1 VA, 2 NC)

• 5 Dominion Biomass & Hybrid Power Plants

• Northern VA Electric Coop Power Plant

• MeadWestvaco Biomass Power Project

• Expansion of Grade & Industrial Hardwood Mills

• Some Expansion of Housing Products

Pulpwood Harvest

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Co

rds

YEAR

Pine Cords

Hardwood Cords

30%

Hardwood

Decline

Sawtimber Harvest

30+%

Harvest

Decline

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

10

00

Bo

ard

Fe

et

YEAR

MBF Hardwood

MBF Pine

Industry Trend

Imports

Thoughts on the Future

• The forests we have today were shaped by conditions

over the last century or more

• Future forests will be different due to several factors,

many of them we can influence

• All users of our forests need to look at the younger

stands to better understand what the future resource

will look like and the impact it may have.

• Increasing markets for low-quality wood offers

opportunities to improve forest health and quality.

• Improved harvesting and growing techniques, and

forest management can help address forest health,

quality and species concerns.

2005 White Oak Crop Tree Release Study

4.75

5.89

6.15

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

Av

erag

e D

BH

(in

)

Age

Untreated Released Released and Fertilized

Thoughts on the Future

• Forestry & forest industries are a sizeable portion of many state’s economy and employment and will continue to be, particularly in some regions.

• Continued loss and fragmentation of forest land, along with other competing forest uses will affect future availability of wood resources

• As the economy and industry improves, forests in some regions may see removals exceed growth.

Forest-Related Takeaways

• Hardwood forests are and will continue to be impacted by global markets through:• Demand for our forest products

• International policies and competition

• Forest health concerns – invasive species, insects & diseases, etc.

• Changes in the global economy

Thoughts on the Future

• The 24/7 world expects immediate responses and answers to situations, however, we work with a resource that takes decades to develop and to make significant changes in it’s make up

• Landowners should strive for healthy, diverse forests which will provide more options to adapt to future conditions.

Additional Information

Charles W. Becker III, CF

Utilization & Marketing Manager

Virginia Department of Forestry

900 Natural Resources Dr., Suite 800

Charlottesville, VA 22903

434-220-9115

434-296-2369 fax

charlie.becker@dof.virginia.gov

www.dof.virginia.gov