16
SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG 2015-2016 SUN RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSULTANCY COMPANY Photovoltaic Energy Project Consultant Team: 1.Kumar Angad 2.Kumar Venkata 3.Lagarde Robin 4.Machave Gaurav 5.Maniyar Siddharth 30-Sep-16 We provide: Project Feasibility & Viability Alternatives & Current Scenario Project Development Plans Budgeting & Costing Strategic Management

Renewable energy management

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG 2015-2016

SUN RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSULTANCY COMPANY

Photovoltaic Energy Project

Consultant Team:

1.Kumar Angad 2.Kumar Venkata 3.Lagarde Robin 4.Machave Gaurav 5.Maniyar Siddharth

30-Sep-16

We provide: Project Feasibility & Viability Alternatives & Current Scenario Project Development Plans Budgeting & Costing Strategic Management

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 1

Contents

Sr. No. Topics Page No.

1. Case 1 2-4

2. Case 2 5-9

3. Case 3 10-14

4. References 15

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 2

Case 1

This report describes solar situation in Germany and Italy which will help client to decide where he

should invest.

Germany:

45% of energy is generated by renewable energy power plants, which produce around

35GW of energy through Photovoltaic (PV).

German government is planning to achieve 52GW of energy production through PV in the

near future.

German polices are clear and structured for investors who want to invest in the solar

sector.

Maximum solar radiation in southern side of Germany is about 1300 kWh/m².

From 2006 to 2014 the cost of PV installation has reduced from €5000/kWp to €1640/kWp.

Germany is currently world’s number one country for producing solar energy.

FIT (feed in tariff) rate significantly declined from year 2008 to 2013 from €0.50/kWh to

€0.10/kWh

There has been a strong increase in the number of people installing solar panels on their

roof or land which has resulted in a cost reduction due to learning and scaling effect.

The significance of the scaling and learning effect for cost drops in Germany has been well

documented and is a noteworthy contributor to the lower installed cost of solar in

Germany when compared to many other nations including United States.

In the German Renewable Energy Act 2014 [EEG], the federal government has fixed a

yearly goal of 2.5 GW. In order to meet most of or all of our energy demand with

renewables, then overall 200 GW PV capacity is to be mounted by 2050 [ISE5, IWES2]. To

reach this extent by 2050, an average of 4 to 5 GW PV must be installed per annum.

Germany and Italy solar radiation intensity:

GERMANY ITALY

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 3

Italy:

Italy is world’s third largest solar energy producer and has 12 diverse solar PV tariffs

according to installation magnitude.

The maximum tariff, at €0.27/kWh, is for small scale rooftop installations, whereas the

minimum tariff, at €0.15/kWh is for large-scale ground-based installations over 5 MW.

In 2011, Italy was the fastest rising solar market in the world, with 9,000 MW of new

installed capacity.

Maximum solar radiation in southern part of Italy is about 1850 kWh/m²

On an average Italy consumes 23.299 GWh of electricity generated by PV energy, which is

7.53% of the total electricity consumption. This level of PV penetration is the world’s

maximum and has increased by 6.6% in 2013 from the previous year.

Based on the information mentioned above, the Italian government believes that there is

no need to give any incentives to solar investors.

Solar energy plants which are producing more than 200 MWh need to choose one of the

following options :

Subject to system size, they can take a 6-8% cut of the FIT rate which they receive per kWh.

They can choose to cut their FIT rate by 17-25% and prolong the fee period from 20 to 24 years in exchange. The investor would get a smaller amount of money per kWh, but for a extended period.

This choice also indicates deep instant cuts to the FIT rate, but instead of an extra time of payment period, the FIT rate will rise once again after 2020. This Choice was added because many of PV panels are mounted on leased roofs/ land, which makes it difficult to extend the payment period.

In addition, a fruit and vegetable market in Bologna, Italy has Europe's biggest solar roof, it has

about45000 solar panel on the roof. It is equivalent to around 14 football ground. There are 290

vegetable sellers who use energy from these panels. They consume around 16GWh of energy and

remaining energy is given to national grid.

As government incentives terminate, solar energy producers have to sell remaining electricity in

different ways. They use it to power electric cars. Therefore Italy has difficulty to sell PV energy to

government at special prices.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 4

Comparison table before conclusion:

Index No

Parameters Germany Italy

1. Max. Solar radiation 1300 kWh/m² 1850 kWh/m²

2. PV penetration Level 5.3% 7%

3. PV system Prices (In USD) (In USD)

Residential 2.40 2.80

Commercial 1.80 1.90

Utility-Scale 1.40 1.50

Conclusion:

Based on the above facts and figures, Germany is better option for a low risk long term investment:

Germany’s legal and renewable polices are both cleared and structured.

Though Germany has less solar radiation compare to Italy, using crystalline module one can utilize optimum solar radiation.

In Germany prices for PV module dramatically decreased, which is an advantage for investors.

For initial 20 years investors can earn money at constant feed-in rate.

Italy comes under maximum solar radiation hence investor can think for Italy when Generation of electricity must not be supply to on-grid lines (as incentives are not given) and use for own purpose and remaining should sell to off grid purpose (as given example of electric car)

Considering all this results, for low risk and long term investment Germany is a more favorable option.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 5

Case 2 Solar energy feasibility study was conducted for a client to invest in the solar power plant based on

the total turnkey costs, excluding project development fees, lease fees and grid connection costs.

This report proposes the appropriate plan for the client after taking into consideration various

factors such as preferred city, type of the photovoltaic module and mounting used for it. Also, it

gives an overview about the applicable Feed in Tariff (FIT) and available financial possibilities to

support the project.

1. Introduction:

Solar Energy Feasibility Study was carried out for solar power plant of capacity 1000kWp

connected to the grid. Between numerous options such as choice of city, type of PV cell and

mounting to be used for it, an appropriate plan has been outlined based on the total turnkey costs,

excluding project development fees, lease fees and grid connection costs. This report gives the

estimated costs for the proposed plan and favourable financial way to support it.

2. Site survey:

A site survey is typically conducted to determine the locations on the site property best suited for solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays. In this case, we had two choices of cities i.e. Hamburg and Munich. Hence, based on the comparison of various parameters primarily solar radiations, and secondary factors such as availability of space and relationships with the landlords and farmers in the region, we decided to choose Munich as our destined city to setup the solar PV power plant. It is ascertained with the following reasons:

a) Higher solar irradiation :

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 6

Above heat map represents the annual average global horizontal irradiation of Germany. The red

portion in the southern Germany indicates the higher solar irradiation whereas, green portion in

the northern part demonstrates the lower solar irradiation. As it can be seen, Munich has higher

solar irradiation accounting for more than 1300 kWh/sq.m., compared to less than 1100

kWh/sq.m. in Hamburg. Normally, this is considered as the most important factor in the setup of

solar PV power plant. As sun is free resource for solar energy and if we have relatively more solar

irradiation, we can prefer low cost moderate efficiency over high cost high efficiency PV modules

for the same electricity demand. In some cases, larger area maybe required for low efficiency

modules requiring more number of PV modules.

b) Secondary factors :

Secondary factors include the availability of land and relations with the farmers and land owners

to setup the solar power plant. These are also the crucial factors, for instance, availability of free

land for ground mounted PV solar plant could be easily accessible if the investor has healthy

relations with the land owners. However, this is not much significant factor for selection of site in

comparison to solar irradiation factor in a region because, investor may choose roof mounting in

such case.

Hence in our case, even if client is located in Hamburg and have good relations with the land

owners, we have decided to go with Munich as it outweighs Hamburg in case of solar irradiation

heavily. Besides, the choice of rooftop mounting mitigates the above disadvantage to some extent

which we have suggested in our report further.

3. Type of mounting:

Primarily, there are two kinds of mountings used i.e. ground mounting and rooftop mounting for

the PV modules. Considering various factors such as availability of land or building rooftop,

property and budget, sunlight obstructions and sometimes aesthetics, the kind of mounting in a

particular region is determined.

According to available data, the population density of Munich (4,700/km2) is more than double to

that of Hamburg (2,260.5/km2) by 2016. Hence, it can be anticipated that there is lack of free

available land in Munich than in Hamburg. However, according to

POLIS STUDY :

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 7

The Munich Department of Health and the Environment calculated the above surfaces technically

usable for solar energy generation. Hence, solar PV roof mounting is highly feasible in Munich.

4. Selection of PV cells:

In this case, we have to choose between thin-film and polycrystalline PV modules. Also,

polycrystalline PV modules can be purchased from either China or Germany. Chinese PV modules

are cheaper but not less than thin film modules. However, there is significant difference in the

efficiencies of two kind of PV modules. Thin film modules efficiency ranges between 7-13% having

typical operating efficiency of 9%, whereas it varies between 13-16% for polycrystalline PV

module. Therefore, it is wise to use cheaper thin film modules with lower efficiency in a region

with high solar irradiation.

We have specifications of each type of PV cell regarding power output (Wp watt-peak), required

area (m2/kWp) and price (€/Wp). Below are the calculations given for each case (Note: We have

not considered efficiency and solar irradiation factor):

Required Power output (Wp)

10,00,000.00

Turnkey prices for roof -top (€/MWp) 1500000

(Note: Please refer the excel sheet for the calculations)

As it can be seen from the calculations, total turnkey costs for thin film pv module is cheaper than

other two. Even if it is less efficient, due to higher solar radiations it gives the same output

compared to high efficient low radiation module. Hence, we have chosen thin film module over

polycrystalline module.

PV Power o/p (Wp)Required area (sq.km/kWp)Total required area (sq.km)Number of unitsPrice (€/Wp)Total cost (€) Total turnkey cost (€)

Thin Film 200 11 11000 5,000.00 0.405 4,05,000.00 19,05,000.00

Polycrystalline China 245 9 9000 4,081.63 0.45 4,50,000.00 19,50,000.00

Polycrystalline Germany 245 9 9000 4,081.63 0.5 5,00,000.00 20,00,000.00

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 8

5. Feed in Tariffs (FiT):

To encourage and accelerate the use of electricity from the renewable sources such as solar

energy, wind energy, geothermal energy etc. German government has mechanized Feed in Tariffs

(FITs) policy. By this policy, investors receive remittance (“tariff”) higher than the retail electricity

rates from the government. After coming into existence in 2004, to motivate cost-effective

renewable energy production, there has been continuous yearly regression in the FiTs, for

instance, 54 ¢/kWh in 2004 for rooftop mounted has dropped to 12.99 ¢/kWh in June 2013.

With the available information about weather conditions and solar irradiance in Munich we have

tabulated various results along with FiT per month, considering some ideal conditions obtained

using online tool .

PV Watts: Monthly PV Performance Data

Location: MUNICH,GERMANY

Lat (deg N): 48.13

Long (deg E): 11.7

Elev (m): 529

DC System Size (kWp): 1000

Module Type: Thin Film

Array Type: Fixed (roof mount)

Array Tilt (deg): 20

*Note: Here average FiT used is 12.99 ¢/kWh applicable for 20 years.

Above table gives the aggregate value of FiT at the end of the year. It is useful to calculate Return

on Investment (ROI) of the solar power plant. In this case, we have not calculated the ROI as we

have not included important costs such as project development fees, lease fees and grid connection

costs.

Month AC System Output(kWh) Solar Radiation (kWh/m^2/day) Plane of Array Irradiance (W/m^2) DC array Output (kWh) Value ($) Value(€)

1 29412.11719 1.15861237 35.91698456 31615.75977 5,03,241.33 3,78,376.94

2 51175.91406 2.21293902 61.96229172 54080.70703 8,75,619.89 6,58,360.82

3 74766.00781 2.94306588 91.23503876 78772.1875 12,79,246.39 9,61,839.39

4 108448.4844 4.43932056 133.1796112 113680.3594 18,55,553.57 13,95,153.06

5 143067.25 5.7785244 179.1342621 149681.4063 24,47,880.65 18,40,511.77

6 121818.2344 5.07488203 152.24646 127700.2344 20,84,309.99 15,67,150.37

7 143723.5469 5.8576827 181.5881653 150401.0781 24,59,109.89 18,48,954.80

8 125960.5313 5.12117004 158.7562714 131906.6406 21,55,184.69 16,20,439.62

9 87098.27344 3.63482714 109.0448151 91510.72656 14,90,251.46 11,20,489.82

10 65335.51563 2.6088326 80.87380981 68848.73438 11,17,890.67 8,40,519.30

11 31389.52344 1.28625822 38.58774567 33666.52734 5,37,074.75 4,03,815.60

12 22326.37305 0.89210761 27.65533638 24251.16602 3,82,004.24 2,87,221.23

Total 1004521.771 41.00822257 1250.180792 1056115.527 17187367.52 129,22,832.72

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 9

6. Finance:

Renewable energy production is supported by the governments in the developed as well as in the

developing countries. Monetary assistance through various subsidies is provided to encourage the

clean renewable energy generation. In Germany, PV power plants can be financed through ‘KfW

Bankengruppe – Environmental Innovation Programme’. It offers long term financing up to 70% of

the financial costs at an attractive interest rate.

Hence in our case, the project is eligible under ‘KfW Renewable Energies Programme – Standard’

scheme. It offers up to 100% of the investment costs eligible for financing, not more than EUR 50

million; however we will finance this project 30% through equity and remaining 70% through the

bank. It has interest rate fixed for ten years and could be extended till the entire term. Application

for the loan could be done from the client bank account.

7. Conclusion:

After considering numerous factors in the setup of the solar power plant, this solar feasibility study

suggests the optimum solution of roof mounted thin film PV module setup in Munich. Report also

summarizes Feed in Tariff (FiT) programme and the possible income out of it as well as outlines the

feasible financing options to the client. Report has a further scope after taking into account the

project development costs, lease fees and grid connection costs and hence Return on Investment

(ROI) can also be calculated.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 10

Case 3

Vision 2030

PV ROADMAP FOR NAMIBIA

By 2017, all rural public institutions will have access to modern energy services. By 2030, almost 100 % of rural households will have access to modern energy services with

at least 50 % of rural households will have access to reliable services from electricity by 2020 and almost 100 % by 2030 either from off grid or non-grid.

Energy services from non-sustainable biomass, particularly for cooking and space heating will be decreasing dramatically during the next couple of decades (at least 30 % by 2020 and 60 % by 2030). The increase of energy efficiency will be achieved by a combination of efficient technologies (such as improved cooking stoves) fuel switching and behavioral change.

Energy efficiency:

By 2015, efficient lighting (at least 5 times more efficient than incandescent lamps) will be used by 50 % of the households, 80 % by 2018 and almost 100 % by 2030.

For high energy consumer sectors (mining, power sector, agriculture) efficient energy technologies will be progressively introduced as well as other demand side management measures such as peak load management when possible. Compared with the current level, energy efficiency will increase by at least 20 % by 2020 and 50% by 2030.

By 2017, energy audits will be compulsory for all high energy consumer sectors, public and para-statal buildings.

Renewable energy

By 2020, sustainable management practices for biomass will be generalized. As a result, by2030, all biomass energy will be derived from sustainable resources. By 2020, there will be an increase of 100 % of electricity capacity from renewable energy

(mainly hydro, solar and wind) compared with the 2012 capacity. This target will be achieved by a combination of off grid mainly for rural areas and on grid options.

Solar water heaters (SWH) will be progressively introduced for households and institutions with a target of 40 % and 60 % respectively of urban households and institutions (hotels,social facilities etc.) equipped with SWH by 2020. By 2030, at least 60 %of households and

80 % of institutions will be equipped with SWH. By 2020, apart from hydro, wind farms and solar technologies (on grid such as Concentrated solar power) will be deployed with a combined capacity of at least 100 MW. This capacity will reach 250 MW by 2030.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 11

The key challenges faced by the country can be summarized as follows: • It is likely that the majority of Namibia's rural population will continue to rely on traditional biomass for cooking and space heating in the foreseeable future. Considering the situation of deforestation in large parts of Namibia, there is a need to improve this situation particularly with energy efficient technologies and the deployment of modern forms of energy. • Reduction of electricity imports from South Africa, Zimbabwe and development of a secure power supply with a relative independence from neighboring countries • Soaring prices for liquid and gas fuels. • Continuing increase in demand for mining products, and with that the electricity to process minerals. • A regulatory and financial framework not sufficiently attractive to invest in RET which bear high initial capital cost. • The long gap time required in building new power plants particularly from renewable energy sources to meet the increasing demand.

The following corner stones will characterize this transition:

1. Electricity as an energy source will gain importance (electric cars, information technology) 2.Re-allocation of funds form the fossil to the renewable sector 3.Reform of the centralised supply industry encouraging distributed generation 4.Introduce bio mass, e. g. harvesting of invader bush, as large scale “job creator” 5.Reforming the Namibian agricultural sector for harvesting bio mass and electricity 6.Embracing storage technologies and making provision of storage a profitable business 7.Embracing demand side management to ease balancing of supply and demand 8.The electricity market must be changed to also remunerate distributed capacity provision 9.Embracing small and large scale business creation based on RE 10.Bringing the energy (thus comfort and attractive life) to the rural people and not vice versa 11.Reforming the Namibian transport sector by utilizing RE-propelled mass transport 12.Reforming the Namibian industrial sector in terms of supplying RE and RE systems

Gdp/capita: 5,693.13 USD (2013) The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Namibia was last recorded at 6013.77 US dollars in 2015. GDP per capita in Namibia averaged 4252.13 USD from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6013.77 USD in 2015 and a record low of 3507.48 USD in 1990. The gdp per capita is expcted to be 6862 us dollars . Secondary industries account for 23 % of the total GDP out of which electricity and water with 12.4 % of the GDP of this sub-sector. Primary industries account for 17 % of the total GDP out of which other mining and quarrying (mainly uranium) accounts for one quarter of the primary industries GDP and the diamond mining accounts for 31 % of the primary industries GDP. In terms of investment (gross fixed capital formation), as expected mining and quarrying sector is the most important sector with 23.6 % of the total investment in 2010. Electricity and water sector accounts for only 5.2 % of the total investment. To increase energy security of the country, substantial investment will be required. The creation of a conducive investment climate is among the objectives of the strategic plan.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 12

Current scenario The Renewable Energy Industry Association of Namibia (REIAoN) is a membership based organization for promoting the cause of companies and individuals active in Namibia’s commercial renewable energy and energy efficiency (RE&EE) sector. The Namibian market for renewable energy technologies (RETs) is growing fast and in some fields like PV even exponentially.

The Otjozondjupa Solar Park, developed by HopSol Africa, claims the title of Namibia’s largest grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) plant.

The 5 megawatt (MW) alternating current (AC) PV power plant is located near Grootfontein and accounts for approximately one percent of the country’s total generation capacity. The project supplies almost 14,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity per year to the state owned utility company, NamPower, enough energy to power 3,700 average households in Namibia. The PV is powered by 52,000 First Solar modules.

Other renewable energy sources

Wind energy: The total potential for wind power in the country is high. Particularly promising sites can be found along the coastal regions, with several sites having average wind speeds of over 8 m/s, and some sites having wind speeds as high as 15 m/s. The first wind power park in sub-Saharan Africa (or even ‘parks’ as three sites have been identified in the initial planning studies) is under design in Namibia (10 MW to 20 MW in Lüderitz). Biomass energy: Biomass production resources are low due to Kalahari Desert covering large areas of Namibia. Biomass use in the country is generally confined to traditional rural household usage, but some studies have indicated potentials of 10 – 42 MWh/ha across the majority of the country. Hydropower: According to Irene renewable energy country profile potential for hydropower is high in Namibia. Country has developed a hydro power Master Plan. A study on all perennial rivers has been performed. The aim of the study was to identify and estimate cost and production for all potential hydro power projects in the Lower Kunene, Kavango and Lower Orange rivers.

Solar Potential

Greater Namibia receives solar radiation of 5.8 to 6.4 KWh per square meter per day 3000 kWh/m² – of the highest in the world. With 8 to 11 average hours of sunshine per day throughout the year, this offers fantastic potential for solar power, both photovoltaic and solar thermal. With one solar plant of 6500 hectares (an 8 by 8 km solar farm), we could supply the entire country’s electrical need. Of course, a centralized single plant like that in the desert is not economically feasible at present, but it gives an indication of how much solar potential there is. Solar potential is so high in Namibia that it would be futile to enumerate all the possibilities.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 13

Off grid: The use of RE in Namibia is very limited particularly at the industrial level. However, off-grid access to energy is identified as a niche whereby a particular interest in RE is evident. Firstly, the areas that will not have access to the grid in the next twenty years are designated off-grid areas. Solar PV is both cost effective and useful for rural off-grid applications. These can range from large solar-diesel hybrid installations for villages and remote localities, such as the power plant that was recently inaugurated at Tsumkwe, or the Gobabeb hybrid installation, to single dwelling stand-alone units or even mobile telephone charging units. Off-grid applications usually require batteries to provide electrical energy after sunset, which render such systems more expensive than their grid-connected counterparts. However, when comparing the cost per kWh supplied by conventional diesel or petrol generating systems, or the cost of bringing electricity networks to remote localities, to the cost of locally installed solar PV systems it becomes obvious that the very long component life offered by contemporary solar PV technologies renders them cost effective, reliable and cost competitive. Whatever the outcome will be, the following considerations should help to guide a beneficial roll-out of grid-connected PV power plants.

1. PV – a de-centralized way of electricity generation

Almost by definition, solar energy is available at any corner of Namibia and should therefore be harvested in a distributed way. The following advantages are obvious:

Generation at (or very close to) the point of consumption Investment often by the electricity consumer Reducing (or avoiding) line losses Reducing (or avoiding) wear and tear of switch gear Smaller and distributed generation capacities can normally be accommodated without

reinforcing the grid Only distributed systems (country-wide) avoid meaningful loss of generation capacity when

large cloud covers or cloudbanks scatter over Namibia Un-bundling of the monopolistic structure of electricity generation

Amongst the current ECB applications and in circulations on the Internet one finds proposals which reach from 20 MW to 1GW!

In terms of the above points, such large concentrated projects do not make much sense. A concentrated 100 MW solar station would constitute some 25% of Namibia’s current requirements but could be choked off just by one massive cloudbank sailing above it. Therefore a look at cloud coverage statistics from weather satellites for all seasons (and for the time of the day) is a prerequisite for planning larger scaled systems. The great advantages of distributed system become obvious.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 14

2. What sizes should we think of?

In the Namibian context I suggest to look at 3 categories when it comes to size:

0.5 to 1000 kW(peak) for residential and industrial systems which are owner operated. The own roof is often the most ideal place to install.

1000 to 5000 kW(peak) for system operated by rural municipalities or other regional entities

5000 to 20000 kW(peak) for systems operated near or around larger towns and systems in support of large-scale mining activities

20000 kW (peak) or 20 MW (peak) should be seen as an upper power range. If more capacity is required (for example in the vicinity of Windhoek or in mining areas) one should think of several independent stations at different locations near the center of consumption. Site selection would obviously go hand in hand with the capacities of power lines and sub-stations etc.

3. Who are the actual beneficiaries of a large-scale roll-out of solar PV systems in Namibia? Assuming that only grid-connected systems are used, the main beneficiaries of a 25,000 system roll-out are

Consumers – through the reduction of their annual electricity costs Distribution entities – by reducing the requirements for grid and distribution

network expenses

Nam Power – through the reduction of energy demanded during sunshine hours

Financial service providers and insurance companies – by way of an increase of Loan value, volumes, and improved client risk portfolio.

Investors– through the creation of new long-term investment opportunities.

To conclude: A national initiative that enables domestic and commercial users to invest in Solar PV systems are both attractive and feasible, and can effectively assist in reducing Namibia’s electricity shortage. Even without subsidies, the large-scale introduction of solar PV systems, especially for urban grid-connected users, holds excellent benefits. Distributed solar PV generators not only reduce the amount of electricity that has to be provided by NamPower, but they also enable domestic users to invest in future-oriented technologies that harvest what Namibia is blessed with, i.e. abundant sunlight. Economically, the country’s fragmented and highly individualised solar supply industry stands to benefit tremendously from an increased uptake of such systems. Banks and other providers of long-term loans will benefit from an increase in their loan value, volumes and diversification of the loan portfolio risk. The long-term prospects of solar PV in Namibia are excellent. Considering that contemporary PV technologies offer a useful service life often in excess of 20 years, investments in these technologies are sensible and hedge the owner against escalating electricity prices.

SRH HOCHSCHULE HEIDELBERG (MASTERS IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS & ENGINEERING 2015-17)

MODULE: ENERGY 1 (TERM PAPER-GROUP 4) Page 15

References

References for Case 1

o https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/TechnologyRoadmapSolarPhotovoltaicEnergy_2014edition.pdf

o http://www.seia.org/research-resources/solar-energy-support-germany-closer-look

o https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/publications/veroeffentlichungen-pdf-dateien-en/studien-und-konzeptpapiere/recent-facts-about-photovoltaics-in-germany.pdf

References for Case 2

o http://www.wvsun.org/solar-for-homes-and-farms-2/ground-mounted-solar-systems/ o http://thegrid.rexel.com/enus/energy_efficiency/f/energy_efficiency_forum/639/does-a-

roof-mounted-pv-system-offer-any-benefits-over-a-ground-mounted-system o http://www.slideshare.net/jigarkspatel/detail-project-report-1-mw-shivam o http://www.res-legal.eu/search-by-country/germany/tools-list/c/germany/s/res-

e/t/promotion/sum/136/lpid/135/ o http://www.renewables-made-in-germany.com/en/renewables-made-

ingermany/technologies/your-supply-of-renewable-energies/your-supply-of-renewable-energies/funding.html

References for Case 3:

o http://eepafrica.org/projects/namibia/ o http://www.reiaon.com/?p=914 o Nampower (2011), Annual report 2010. o Ministry of Mines and Energy, www.mme.gov.na. o https://www.laurea.fi/en/document/Documents/Namibia%20Fact%20Sheet.pdf o http://www.mme.gov.na/directorates/energy/renewable/ o http://www.firstsolar.com/en-ZA/About-Us/Projects/Otjozondjupa-Solar-Park o http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/hopsol-taps-first-solar-for-namibias-

largest-pv-project_100023475/ o http://www.tradingeconomics.com/namibia/gdp-per-capita o https://www.climate-eval.org/evaluation/barrier-removal-namibian-renewable-energy-

programme-namrep o https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/technology-roadmap-solar-

photovoltaic-energy---2014-edition.html