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Forecasts for renewable energy and disaster management. Renate Hagedorn Scientific and Operational Management Division Deutscher Wetterdienst. ?. ?. ?. 2012: 25%. 2010: 18%. Motivation. Moving towards sustainable supply of energy based on renewables - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 1
Forecasts for renewable energy
and disaster management
Renate Hagedorn Scientific and Operational Management Division
Deutscher Wetterdienst
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 2
Motivation
Moving towards sustainable supply of energy based on renewables
Focus on wind- and solar power production
Weather dependent, fluctuating power production
Contribution of Renewables [%] to Total Power Production in Germany
2010: 18%
2012: 25%
?
?
?
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 3
A new component in the system
Renewable Energy Conventional Energy
Energy Consumption
Net Transfer
Load + Net Transfer = RE + CE
35% 65%
90%
controllablepredictable
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 4
Challenge for TSOs
Ensure the balance between production and consumption at any time…
…under the constraint of limited grid capacity
Growing proportion of weather-dependent power production requires
new strategies for managing the power grid
German High-Voltage Transmission System
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 5
Various options to guarantee stability of grid:
Re-dispatch of conventional power plants, transmission of surplus energy between
regulatory areas, positive/negative energy reserves (pumping stations)
Down-regulation of renewable power plants
Unexpected events can jeopardise safety of grid:
Unexpected high production of power can cause failure of equipment (power
transformation stations) with possible consequences also for neighbouring grids
Unexpected low production of power can cause shortages (load shedding)
Role of Transmission System Operators (TSOs)
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 6
HIW for PV power production
„observed“
Fog predicted, but not observed
Difference: Day-Ahead Forecast ~ 6 GW, Intra-Day Forecast ~ 3 GW
Operating Reserve: ±4.5 GW
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 7
Prediction „Observation“
30.01.2013 30.01.2013
source: http://www.transparency.eex.com(average electricity consumption: ~60 GW)
HIW for wind power production
Observed wind below the level necessary for peak production
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 8
0 5 10 15 20 25 30windspeed [m/s]
0
20
40
60
80
100
win
dpow
er [%
of m
axim
um p
rodu
ctio
n]
Expected Value of user function ⟨UF⟩
⟨UF(x)⟩
●● ● ●● ●● ●●
(Theoretical) linear user function
UF (⟨x⟩)=
⟨x⟩
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 9
0 5 10 15 20 25 30windspeed [m/s]
0
20
40
60
80
100
win
dpow
er [%
of m
axim
um p
rodu
ctio
n]
Expected Value of user function ⟨UF⟩
●● ● ●● ●● ●●
Nonlinear user function
⟨UF(x)⟩UF (⟨x⟩)≠
The expected value of the user function is not equal to
the user function of the expected value,
but depends on the whole ensemble ⟨x⟩
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 10
So far the theory…
“In theory” the advantages of incorporating information on the level of
uncertainty are acknowledged
R&D of TSOs actively ask for scenarios
Operation Managers are (partly) still reluctant to incorporate this information
Main concerns: Accountability… “if something goes wrong we need to justify our decision”
Information overload… “too much information is confusing rather than helping”
The way forward: Automatic (user-specific) systems to suggest “best decision”
Condensed (user-specific) presentation of information to prepare for alternative
scenarios
Projects to explore this route just starting at DWD
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 11
New research projects
Funding agency: Federal Ministry for Environment
Collaborative projects with partners in research and industry
EWeLiNE Duration: 4 years, 12/2012 – 11/2016, 13 scientist positions
Highlight: assimilation of wind power production observations
ORKA Duration: 3 years, 08/2012 – 08/2015, 2 scientist positions
Highlight: direct communication between developer and user on deficiencies in
prediction system, i.e. frequent cycle of development-evaluation work
External advisory committee: industrial user and provider of weather-
and power-prediction models, to: discuss results
incorporate external experiences
insure that developments are geared towards the needs of general user
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 12
Disaster Management
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 13
Disaster Management
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 14
Disaster Management
What is GDACS?
GDACS is a cooperation framework under the United Nations umbrella. It includes disaster managers and disaster information systems worldwide and aims at filling the information and coordination gap in the first phase after major disasters.
GDACS provides real-time access to web-based disaster information systems and related coordination tools.
What services does GDACS provide?
provides alerts and impact estimations after major disasters
develops standards and guidelines for international information exchange in disasters
provides the real-time coordination platform
coordinates the creation and dissemination of disaster maps and satellite images
Detailed weather forecast are provided rapidly on demand by SARWeather
a broken link…
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 15
Two levels of response
An event (disaster) is detected: Assessment of humanitarian impact
Actual response
An event (potential disaster) is predicted: Depending on the level of (un)certainty preparations for actual response
Continuous update on prediction
50 mm11/03/2013, 00 UTC
40 mm10/03/2013, 12 UTC
110 mm09/03/2013, 12 UTC
08/03/2013, 12 UTC
ECMWF EPS-FC
Noumea, New Caledonia120 mm
Workshop on HIW-THORPEX Legacy Project – 18/03/2013 16
Summary
Growing proportion of energy supply based on renewables requires
new strategies to integrate meteorological information into decision-making
focus on reliable forecast systems
consideration of user defined high-impact events
National disaster relief organizations ask for
global early warnings for preparatory actions
frequent updates in the event of a possible disaster
consideration of individual vulnerability levels