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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN:WATER, FOREST AND ENERGY
Zulfiqar Ali Lashari 2016252644
CONTENTS
• INTRODUCTION
• CLIMATE CHANGE
• EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN PAKISTAN
• EFFECT ON WATER
• EFFECT ON FOREST
• EFFECT ON ENERGY
• CONCLUSION
• Pakistan is situated in South East Asia. • The country is listed in the third world countries. Pakistan
consists of four provinces namely Sindh, Punjab, Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhuwa.
• Pakistan got independence on August 14, 1947 from British.
• Pakistan is bordered by India to the east, Afghanistan the west and Iran to the southwest while China borders the country in the northeast.
• The geography of Pakistan is a profound blend of landscapes varying from plains to deserts, forests, hills and plateaus and ranging from coastal areas of the Arabian Sea in the south to the mountains of the Karakoram range in the north.
• climate Pakistan lies in the subtropical arid zone and most of the country is subjected to a semi-arid climate. Based on physiographic factors and causes of diversity in climate, the country has been classified into four major climatic regions:
AREA:1,881,913 km2 (726,611 sq mi)
Introduction
Climate ChangeWeather:
Climate:
Climate Change:
The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as tempera-ture, moisture, pressure etc.
Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades.
Climate Change in excess of natural variability, at-tributable to human activity.
Climate Change UNFCCC …..”a change of climate which is at-
tributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmos-phere which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over a comparable period of time”
CLIMATE CHANGE Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & SnowSea level Rise
Increase in Frequency & In-tensity of Extreme
Weather Events
IMPACTSUncertainty in Water Avail-
ability
Decrease in Crop Yields
Newer perspective for sources of energy
Loss of BiodiversityIncreased
Health Risks
Natural Climate Variability
Climate ChangeNatural + Anthropogenic
Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution
Spiraling Popula-tion
High pace of In-dustrialization
Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in
Industry & Trans-port
Deforestation for Agriculture and
Urbanization
Climate Change/Global WarmingScientific Evidence
According to the 3rd Assessment report of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2001):
Average global temperature has increased by 0.6 0C during the 20th Century.
Future increases in global temperature are expected in the range of 1.4 – 5.8 0C by the end of this century.
In South Asia, average annual temperatures could rise be-tween 3.5 to 5.5 0C by 2100.
Recent findings in the 4th Assessment Report of IPCC (2007) indicate that global temperature rises of 2 – 4.5 0C are almost inevitable.
EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING ON CLIMATE OF PAKISTAN
• Although Pakistan itself contributes very little to the overall emissions of the Greenhouse Gases, yet it remains one of the most severely hit countries of the world by the process of Global warming.
RISING TEMPERATURES IN PAKISTAN
As an ill effect of global warming, the annual mean surface temperatures in Pakistan have been steadily increasing during the past decad. A rise in mean temperature of 0.6-1°C in the coastal areas along with a 0.5 to 0.7% increase in solar radi-ation over southern half of country has been observed. In central Pakistan, a 3-5% decrease in cloud cover with increas-ing hours of sunshine have also been responsible for increas-ing the temperatures.
RECENT CLIMATIC CATA-STROPHES IN PAKISTAN
Pakistan ranks 16th on the Climate Change Vulnerability In-dex(CCVI) by Maple Croft, jumping up 13 positions in one year.
German watch places Pakistan as the “most affected” coun-try for 2010 and in top 10 for 1990-2010 by climatic changes.
Climate changes are costing the economy $14 billion a year, which is almost 5% of the GDP. According to the Asian Development Bank, more than 10 million people have been displaced in Pakistan over the last 2 years due to these cli-mate related disasters.
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Observed climate change in Pakistan
• Change in temperature: 0.6-1.0 oC increase in mean tem-perature in coastal areas since early 1900s.
• Change in precipitation: 10-15% decrease in coastal belt and hyper arid plains over the last 40 years in northern Pakistan.
Water Resources In PakistanPakistan is an agricultural country. Therefore water is
an essential resource for sustained economic growth as well as human survival.
Water, which is one of the most important national resource is increasingly becoming a scarce natural resource.
Presently agriculture sector is using 93%, domestic sector 5% and industrial sector 2% of water re-sources.
The domestic and industrial sector water uses are projected to increase to 15% by 2025.
Agriculture sector is the major user of water, but its share is expected to decrease because of competing non-agricultural demands.
Our Indus Basin Irrigation System (IBIS) is the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system.
It comprised three large dams, 85 small dams, 19 barrages, 12 inter-river link canals and 45 canal commands.
This irrigation network is the biggest infra-structure asset of Pakistan worth approxi-mately US$ 300 billion of investment.
(source: Ministry of Water & Power).
CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON WATER
Water resources are inextricably linked with climate; hence, the projected climate change has serious implications for Pak-istan’s water resources.
The freshwater resources in Pakistan are mainly based on snow and glacier melt and monsoon rains, both being highly sensitive to climate change.
The average annual flow of IRS is around 142 million acre-feet of which 104 MAF is diverted to the canal network, while ma-jor portion of the remaining balance of around 35 MAF out-flows to the sea.
Fortunately Pakistan has a large useable groundwater aquifer, God gifted natural reservoir, which is largely recharged from the surface flows and rains.
This resource is being exploited heavily and particu-larly in some hyper-arid areas to the extent of crimi-nality.
Pakistan has moved from a water affluent country to water stressed country. In 1947, per capita water availability was 5000 cubic meter, which has currently decreased to around 1000 cubic meter, and projected to decrease to 800 cubic meter per capita by the year 2025.
Water sources• The five major (Jhelum, Ravi, Beas, Sutlej,
and Chenab) • The three minor rivers (Haro, Soan, and Siran), which
make up the embryonic Indus river system, is the main source of surface water in Pakistan, along with the dams.
• Major Dams are Tarbela and Mangla, with Bhasha under the
way.
Mangla Dam
Glaciers and Pakistan Glaciers in Pakistan cover 13,680 sq. km which is 13% of mountain re-
gions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB).
Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.
International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.
Hewitt (2005): reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers.
Some Projected Changes in River Flows due to Melting of HKH Glaciers
(As reported in recent studies)
World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of In-dus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.
IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede.
These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.
How is Pakistan affected by climate change?
• Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss and reduce availability of fresh-water for the population.
Impact of Climate Change and Glacier retreat on Indus FlowsAssumed Climate Change Scenario (CCS):
Temp: +3°C, Glacier Area: - 50%
Mean Monthly Flows for the Period of Record 1995-2004
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec
Dis
char
ge (C
umec
s)
Base Runoff CCS Runoff
Base Glacier melt CCS Glacier melt
Main Results: 1. Annual flows reduced by 15%2. Intra-Annual flow pattern considerably changed
Vulnerability of Water Resources Increased variability of Monsoon More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threaten-
ing IRS Flows Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due
to rise in snowline Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture and
water supply for industrial and domestic sec-tors.
Increased risks of floods and droughts
• Pakistan is at greatest risk due to increased flooding from the rivers and in some cases sea.
• Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan which in turn will affect livelihoods and food production.
FLOOD • Melting of glaciers• Recurrent flooding's• Pakistan's economy has been crippled heavily by devastat-
ing and repetitive floods during the last decade. In the past 10 years, Pakistan has been hit by floods almost every year. However, the floods of 2010 and 2011 have emerged as the biggest catastrophes in the country's history.
Flood...• 2010 floods • The flood of 2010 remains as one of the biggest
tragedies in the world's history, with 20 million people affected by it. The floods resulted in ap-proximately 1,781 deaths, injured 2,966 people and destroyed more than 1.89 million homes.
• 2011 floods • Although nowhere near the 2010 floods, the 2011
floods also wrecked havoc , and affected 5.3 mil-lion people and 1.2 million homes in Sindh, as well as inundating 1.7 million acres of arable land.
Motiva-tion...
Can you Help us...
A distressed woman clutches her children as she wades through shoulder high water in the flood affected areas of Sind.
2010 WHO Report...
• Total 5.3 million consultations were reported in the country.
• 708, 891 individuals (15% of the total population) were reported with acute diarrhoea.
DROUGHTS
• A Drought is a period of abnormally dry weather due to the lack of rainfall. The chief characteristic of a drought is a decrease of water availability in a particular period and over a particular area.
Drought....• Pakistan's economy has been
punched heavily by the continu-ous spell of droughts for the last many years, particularly in the provinces of Baluchistan and Sind.
• Drought in these areas has re-duced the river flows, resulting in drying up of the irrigation canals, leading to a severe agricultural deprivation.
• The increased temperatures be-cause of the increased GHGs as well as a mismanagement of the water reservoirs need to be blamed for the condition
EFFECT ON FOREST
FOREST SECTORS IN PAKISTANPakistan is a country with one of the lowest forest cover in the world.
which is mainly due to the arid and semi-arid climate in most parts of the country.
forests in the country consisted of 4.2 million ha (4.8%),
irrigated plantations occupied 103,000 ha (0.11%),
while rangelands covered 28.50 million ha (32.40%) out of the total land area (87.98 million ha) of Pakistan.
the total area under forests in the country was 4.34 million ha (5%) out of which 3.44 million ha were state owned while the tree cover on farmlands and in private forests was 0.78 million ha (0.88%). (FAO,2007).
Furthered by the increased rate of deforestation, the country’s forest cover is alarmingly on the verge of disappearance.
average an area of 31,658 ha (-0.75%) of natural forests is cleared or deforested each year in Pakistan.
The forests of Pakistan reflect great physiographic, climatic and edaphic contrasts in the country.
(Pakistan’s Country Report by FAO)
Impacts on Forestry
Loss of Biodiversity More frequent forest fires resulting in defor-
estation, soil erosion and landslides Shifting of forest areas northwards (to cooler
places)
Deforestation• Deforestation is the
"permanent removal of standing forests”
• Deforestation include conversion of forestland to farms or urban use
Deforestation• Forests currently cover only 2.5 per cent of Pakistani
land area, the country has the highest annual deforesta-tion rate in Asia, according to the latest findings of the World Wide Fund for Nature
• 61,000 hectares (approx over 151,500 acres) of forest land have been converted to non-forest use in the coun-try since its inception
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Causes of deforestation in PakistanPakistan is one of those coun-tries where rate of deforesta-tion is extremely higher. The main cause of deforesta-tion in Pakistan is the day-by-day increase in population which increases requirement of the food and land for resi-dential purpose. In addition, the requirement for furniture, other household products and fuel is also increasing
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Causes of deforestation in PakistanPeople are clearing forests to make residential colonies, roads between and within cities and for agriculture us-age. Wood, which is gained by these forests and trees, is used to make building materi-als, furniture, paper products and is used as firewood in most rural areas of the coun-try
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Impact of deforestation on climate and environment
Deforestation not only affects the climate by increasing the atmo-spheric level of carbon dioxide but also affects the environment by inhibiting water recycling, trigger-ing severe flooding, aquifer deple-tion, soil degradation and the ex-tinction of plant and animal species
Impact of deforestation on climate and environment
• Cutting down forests will cause a decline in photosyn-thetic activity which results in the atmosphere retaining higher levels of carbon dioxide. Forests also store an enormous amount of organic carbon which is released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide when forests are cleared by burning. Clearly, deforestation contributes to global warming. This deforestation is a real harm for our ecosystem and environment. It is the main cause of global warming worldwide.
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Impact of deforestation on climate and envi-ronment
Water recycling is the movement of rain from the forest to land masses further inland. In a healthy forest about 3/4th of the intercepted water is re-turned to the atmosphere as moisture laden air masses which move inland, cool and are converted to rain. Land cleared by deforestation returns only about 1/4th of the rain water to the atmosphere. This air mass has less moisture and delivers less rain further inland. Deforestation inhibits water re-cycling and converts inland forest to dry land and potential waste land
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Impact of deforestation on climate and envi-ronment
Severe flooding is a result of deforestation because removal of the forest leaves little vege-tative cover to hold heavy rains. The inability of land void of forest to hold heavy rain wa-ter will also trigger mudslides. Severe flooding and mudslides are extremely costly because they devastate homes and communities
Impact of deforestation on climate and environment• The excess water from land cleared of forest becomes
runoff water and enters the ocean instead of seeping downward into the soil to recharge aquifers. Aquifer de-pletion is already becoming a serious problem in certain areas of the planet and as the human population con-tinues to grow so will the demand for fresh water
Impact of deforestation on climate and environment• Today deforestation, especially, in the tropics, deci-
mates plant and animal life. Tropical rainforest contain about 7% of land surface but over half of the plant and animal species on the planet. If tropical rainforest de-forestation continues at the current rate, it is estimated that by the first part of the 21st century about half of the remaining rainforest will be lost along with about 5 to 10% of all the species on the planet
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Impact of deforestation on climate and envi-ronment
Deforestation also results in soil degra-dation. Forests store nutrients that are required for all plant life. In the tropics almost all nutrients are stored in the vegetation because tropical soil has lit-tle organic matter and almost no nutri-ent storage capacity. If tropical forests are cleared for cropland, the land will yield crops for only a few years and when the nutrients are depleted they become wasteland
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Deforestation increase flooding in PakistanDeforestation in Pakistan di-rectly contributed to the severity of flooding seen there in 2010, 11, 12 and 13. With the hills and mountains due to lack of tree cover and erosion increased, in places dragging remaining tree cover down causing block-ages, damaging dams and increasing flooding
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PAKITAN IN LEADING TOWARDS……..The rate of deforestation in Pak-istan has been accelerated harshly and The World Wide Fund Report warns that if the current deforestation trend of land con-version from forest to other uses is not checked, the country will not be able to meet its interna-tional commitments under the MDGs to increase its forest cover from 2.5 % to 6 % by 2015
Impact of Climate Extreme Events
Climate Extreme Events Flash floods, Droughts, Heavy precipitation
events, Hailstorms, Dust storms, Cyclones, Heat waves
Cause damage to life and property Destroy standing crops Destroy stored food grain Spoil quality of food grains
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HOW CAN WE STOP DEFORESTA-TION ?
• Governments have to make citizens aware of the issue including children
• Reduce wasteful land use practices
• Improve already de-veloped lands
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HOW CAN WE STOP DEFOR-ESTATION ?• Each person can
plant trees once in a while to maintain the ecosystem
• Groups can be formed to decrease deforestation
• Plantation weeks in Pakistan
EFFECT ON ENERGY
Impacts on Energy
Greater demand of energy Reduced hydropower generation because
of low water supply Windmills – vulnerable in coastal areas to
cyclonic activity Reduced utilization of solar energy – due
to increased cloudiness as a result of high evapotranspiration
Sector wise Energy Consumption of Pakistan
Source: Pakistan Energy Yearbook 2008
Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use• The energy sector is vulnerable to the ef -
fects of climate change in several ways, as many different aspects of the energy in-dustry are directly affected by environ-mental and climatic conditions.
• The effects include;• Seasonal and daily temperatures and pre-
cipitation changes affect the timing of peak electricity demands and the size of these peaks;
• Extended periods of drought lead to re-duced water availability for hydropower generation;
Impact of Climate Change on Energy Use• Changes in temperature and precipitation
affect water availability for cooling power generators;
• Changes in cloud cover, temperature and pressure patterns directly affect wind and solar resources (affecting resource availabil-ity or productivity);
• Increased intensity and frequency of severe weather events impact design and safety requirements of future energy infrastructure and other capital investments;
• Increased occurrence of blackouts may be observed as a result of higher electricity demand for cooling and refrigeration caused by higher temperatures.
Impact of Climate Change on En-ergy Use
• Changes in precipitation cycles due to cli-mate change can alter river flow patterns, resulting in longer periods of drought, thus causing water levels to decrease and af -fecting hydroelectric generation capacity.
• Another potential consequence of altered river flow patterns is the increased inci-dence of elevated flow rates and flooding that exceed the safety margins of existing hydro plants.
• On the other hand, increased flow rates, if timed and managed correctly, may result in increased hydropower generation.
Climate change impacts on biofuels production systems
• Biofuels are among the most promising types of biomass energy systems in place
• For example, temperatures are linked with the real evapo-transpiration of sugarcane plants in semi-arid conditions (Fonseca, J. 1984), (Carrera, Luis, A.; R.1995), there-fore, an increase in temperature and a de-crease in rainfall will cause increased evapo-traspiration, resulting in lower pro-duction of sugarcane and thus lower bio-fuel production.
Climate change impacts on wind energy generation systems
• Wind energy is not affected by shifting wa-ter supplies as opposed to fossil-fuel based power systems or other alternative energy systems.
• Nevertheless projected climate change impacts are likely to have significant posi-tive or negative impacts on wind energy generation given that it depends strongly on climatic and environmental conditions at a particular site.
• Wind is caused by the uneven heating of the earth’s surface by the sun.
Climate change impacts on wind energy genera-tion systems
• In order to ensure the sustainability of fu-ture wind energy projects, the identifica-tion of locations where deep changes in global atmospheric circulation are ex-pected is critical.
Actions on climate changeMitigation:
Promoting low-carbon energy sources and technologies Promoting energy conservation and efficiency Reducing emissions from deforestation Adaptation:
Integrating climate risks into policies and planning at different levels
Addressing climate impacts in various sectors
Building the capacity of communities to cope with climate change related problems
References
CONCLUSION • Pakistan, which is an already resource stressed country,
has been crippled by the process of global warming.• More than 10 million people have been displaced over
the last two years, the agricultural land lies barren and financial losses have been estimated at $2 billion.
• These climatic catastrophes will not die down. Research studies have concluded that changing weather patterns will be the foundation for more intense and prolonged droughts and heat waves.
• Meanwhile, tremendous precipitation events will become more frequent and future tropical cyclones will become more strong.
CONCLUSION• So it is the time for policy makers to sit and think seri-
ously about this issue. New plans and strategies have to be made to overcome the problem
• Rules and regulations regarding cutting of trees must be followed
• Government and society including us (the future disas-ter managers) have to feel their responsibilities and individuals have to play their role to reduce the rate of deforestation
References • Dr. Qazi, et,al; CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION ASSESS-
MENTS IN PAKISTAN, FINAL REPORT OF THE SECTORAL STUDY ON AGRICULTURE, SEPTEMBER, 1997.
• Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in 2007• Forestry Sector Master Plan (FSMP-1992),• Framework for Implementation of Climate change policy, Government
of Pakistan Climate change Division Islamabad, November 2013.• Ministry of Climate change Government of Pakistan, National climate
change policy September 2012.• Dr. Rasul, et, al.;Pakistan Metrological Department, climate change in
Pakistan, focused on Sindh Province, Technical Report No. PMD-25/2012.
References • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Pakistan • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_Pakistan • http://www.protothema.gr/world/article/?aid=218449 • http://www.thenews.com.pk/Todays-News-6-71543-Climate-
change-disasters-in-Pakistan-and-its-consequences • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Pakistan • http://www.lead.org.pk/cc/basicguide_climate_change.html• Pakistan’s Country Report by FAO, 2007.
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