Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15,...
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Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, Pakistan, Febr From Bali to Copenhagen : Climate Change Challenges Ainun Nishat Ph.D. Country Representative IUCN-Bangladesh Country Office, and Focal Person on Climate Change, IUCN-Asia Regional Directorate
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 From Bali to Copenhagen : Climate Change Challenges
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 From Bali to Copenhagen :
Climate Change Challenges Ainun Nishat Ph.D. Country Representative
IUCN-Bangladesh Country Office, and Focal Person on Climate Change,
IUCN-Asia Regional Directorate
Slide 2
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Is Climate Change real ..?
Climate change has risen to the top of international policy agenda.
IPCC TAR 2001: The Earths Climate system has demonstrably changed
on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era.
The IPCC-FAR(2007), concludes that global warming is unequivocally
the result of human activities. Scientific consensus is clear; now
we need to urgently focus on what to do about it. CO 2 emission has
increased from 280 ppm before industrial revolution to about 380
ppm. May reach 800+ ppm by end of this century. Global average
temperature is already up by 0.8 C. Stern Review ( 2007) : poorest
countries and people will suffer earliest and most. Climate change
and climate variability are now real and a stable situation is not
likely to be achieved soon.
Slide 3
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Some Definitions Climate
Change: any change in climate over time. Climate variability:
variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as
occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and
spatial scales. Adaptation is adjustment in natural or human
systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the
sinks of greenhouse gases.
Slide 4
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Introduction UNFCCC was
signed in 1992; Kyoto protocol focuses on Mitigation and will come
to end in 2012. IPCC-IV Report puts urgency in combined global
efforts in addressing various aspects of global warming. Intense
negotiations will be held from now, up to December 2009, developing
countries must participate in the process effectively This
presentation has five sections Major Climate Change concerns
Progress up to Bali Outcome of Bali COP ( COP13/MOP3) Bali Action
Plan and Road to Copenhagen Concluding Remarks
Slide 5
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 I. Major Climate Change
concerns
Slide 6
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008
Slide 7
Global Warming Sea Level Rise Snow Cover SPM (IPCC, 2007)
Slide 8
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Comparison of Yearly Mean
Temperature Global Bangladesh Northern Hemisphere Dhaka
Slide 9
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Projected impacts of climate
change 1C2C5C4C3C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling
crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Food
Water Ecosystems Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes
Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0C Falling
yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face
extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt,
large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant fall in water
availability e.g. Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain
glaciers disappear melt-water supplies threatened in several areas
Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Events Rising
intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves
Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions Source: stern
review
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Vulnerabilities: Livelihood
Adjustment mechanism such as migration Regional distribution of
global output Nutrition Trade Gender differentiated impacts
Regional dimensions coastal and inland Health Food security
Disasters Infrastructure Industry Agriculture Poor and non poor
Trend and sudden shocks Climate change impact Livelihood impact
through Employment, income, consumption changes
Slide 12
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Vulnerabilities Climate and
Related Elements Most Impacted Sectors Temperature rise and drought
Agriculture (crop, livestock, fisheries), Energy Health Water Sea
Level Rise and Salinity Intrusion Agriculture (crop, fisheries,
livestock) Water (water logging, drinking water, urban) Human
settlement Energy Health Floods Agriculture (crop, fisheries,
livestock) Water (urban, industry) Infrastructure Human settlement
Health Cyclone and Storm Surge Marine Fishing Infrastructure Human
settlement Life and property Drainage congestion Water Agriculture
(crop)
Slide 13
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Where are our concerns
North: Compromise with life style Snow melting and dry ski-slopes
Floods Impact on ecosystem Hurricanes and typhoons Sea level rise
Health issues Malaria Heat waves Capacity to cope with disasters
Reduction of green house gas emission level South: Food and
livelihood security Urban drainage problems Floods and cyclone :
forecasting and warning dissemination Improvements in IWRM
including resolution of trans- boundary waters. Salinity increase
& sea level rise River and coastal erosion Disaster management
Understanding impact on ecosystem Question of future survival
Slide 14
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 II. Progress up to Bali
Slide 15
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Global Responses The
international political response to climate change began with
adoption of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)
in 1992. Calls for all signatories including developing countries:
to develop their inventories of GHG emission; formulate and
implement national and regional programs related to mitigation and
adaptation; Promote and cooperate in development, application,
diffusion, including transfer of technologies aimed at GHG emission
reduction; Promote sinks of Green House Gases; Cooperate in
adaptation to impacts of climate change; Promote and cooperate in
increasing the scientific understanding and in education training
and awareness raising. These initiatives should be reflected in
National Communications. Annex-1 countries have prepared 4 th
Communication, developing countries have submitted 1 st
Communication and preparing 2 nd Communication.
Slide 16
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Goals set out in 1992
through UNFCCC Stabilization of the GHG concentrations at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climatic system. Such a level should be achieved within a time
frame sufficient: To allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate
change. To ensure that food production is not threatened, and To
enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable
manner.
Slide 17
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Global Response (cont...)
Parties to the UNFCCC adopted the Kyoto Protocol (KP) with the
unprecedented, legally enforced ambition of limiting and reducing
the greenhouse gas emissions. Annex-I countries have a target to
bring down the GHG emission, individually or jointly, by at least
by 5%below 1990 levels in the first commitment period of 2008 to
2012. Countries are to make demonstrable progress in achieving
their commitments by 2005. Is it happening? --- No. Negotiation for
post 2012 period has been initiated through Bali Action Plan. Heads
of Govt. met in New York on 24 th September 2007; Ministers and
senior officials met on 11-12 th February 2008.
Slide 18
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 III. Outcome of Bali COP (
COP13/MOP3)
Slide 19
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Bali action Plan 13 th COP
held in Bali launched a comprehensive process to enable the full,
effective and sustained implementation of the UNFCCC through long-
term action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an
agreed outcome and adopt a decision at COP-15. The process will
produce: A shared vision for long-term cooperative action, Set long
term global goal for emission reductions, To achieve ultimate
objective of the UNFCCC, and Uphold the principles of common but
differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and
Take into account social and economic conditions and other relevant
factors. The process will address: Enhanced national/international
action on Mitigation Enhanced action on Adaptation, Enhanced action
on Technology development and transfer to support action on
Mitigation and Adaptation, Enhanced action on provision of
Financial Resources and investment to support action on Mitigation
and adaptation and technology cooperation.
Slide 20
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Enhanced action on
Mitigation By all developed countries Quantified emission
limitation and reduction objectives Nationally appropriate
mitigation commitments or actions: Measurable, Reportable, and
Verifiable. By all developing countries Nationally appropriate
mitigation actions, Supported and enabled by technology, finance
and capacity-building, in the context of sustainable development :
Measurable, Reportable, and Verifiable. Positive incentives on
REDD
Slide 21
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Enhanced action on
Adaptation International cooperation to support urgent
implementation of Adaptation actions through: Assessment of
Vulnerability Prioritization of actions Financial needs assessment
Development of risk reduction and disaster management strategies
Integration of climate considerations into sectoral and national
planning Support programme for capacity building in formulating
programmes and projects to address the adaptation needs. Financial
mechanism to support the implementation of activities. Development
of new and innovative support mechanisms such as insurance
etc.
Slide 22
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Enhanced action on
Technology transfer Technology development and transfer to support
action on Mitigation and Adaptation by: Scaling up of the
development and transfer of technology to developing countries
through effective mechanisms and enhanced means for removal of
obstacles to, and provision of financial and other incentives.
Accelerated deployment, diffusion and transfer of affordable
environmentally sound technologies, Cooperation in research and
development of current, new and innovative technology.
Slide 23
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Enhanced action on Finance
Positive incentives for emission reduction activities of developing
countrys. Financing for implementation of adaptation actions.
Mobilization of public- and Private-sector funding and investment,
including facilitation of carbon- friendly investment choices
Improved access to adequate, predictable and sustainable financial
resources including concessional funding.
Slide 24
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 IV. Bali Action Plan and
Road to Copenhagen
Slide 25
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Bali Action Plan and Road to
Copenhagen Road Map for post-2012 international response to Climate
Change has been agreed upon Mitigation is no longer a task for only
Annex-1 or developed countries. Developing as well as LDCs are also
obligated to push for GHG reduction. China, India, Indonesia etc.
are also major polluters. Ad Hoc Working Group (AWG) on long term
Cooperative Action has been set up. AWG wil complete its work in
2009 and present their outcome in COP 15 in Copenhagen. First
session of the AWG will be held no later than April 2008. There
will be 4 sessions in 2008. ( March/April, June, September, and
December). Parties are to submit their views by 22 nd February 2008
on the Bali Work Programme.
Slide 26
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Concluding remarks
Slide 27
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 A strong compliance regime
is required. Efforts should be made to ensure that global mean
temperature will not increase beyond 2 c. A deep emission cut is
needed. IPCC suggested that developed counties need to reduce their
emission, below 1990 level, by 25-40% by 2020, for stabilization at
450-550 ppm. Larger alliance among developing countries on post
Kyoto situation. Additional funds commitment for adaptation needs
and its disbursement mechanism. Binding adaptation funds Technology
transfer at an affordable price Some negotiation issues at global
level
Slide 28
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Where to work Mainstreaming
of climate change concerns into countrys programs/projects be done
urgently. Synergy between Adaptation and Mitigation be considered
Coastal afforestation and Wetland afforestation Selection of
species for enhanced sequestration Monitoring of impacts of Climate
change Climate change and impact on ecosystem Indicator species
Movement of habitat Climate change and health issues Sea level rise
Impact of weather on crop yield Compilation of traditional
knowledge and folk wisdom on disaster risk reduction
Slide 29
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Where to work Reducing
greenhouse gas Emission from Deforestation and ecosystem
Degradation (REDD). Climate change and gender issues Capacity
development in science, impacts and adaptation assessment
prediction of climate risks Preparation and implementation of CDM
projects. Agriculture sector to raise adaptive capacity,
international negotiation & climate diplomacy Implications of
Bio-fuel / Bio Diesel be evaluated. GO/NGO collaboration on
collaborative research & community based adaptation activities.
Establishment of Climate change Network to coordinate national
level activities and join global networks
Slide 30
Launching Ceremony, Technical Advisory Panel on Climate Change
Islamabad, Pakistan, February 15, 2008 Thank You
