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Teacher training material for teaching about climate change adaptation
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Climate Change in WalesWelsh Baccalaureate Teacher Training Day
Cardiff 07/12/11
Dr Jeanette Reis (Climate Change Consortium, Cardiff University)
Paul Parker (Severn Estuary Partnership, Cardiff University)
Overview• Purpose: to increase awareness of climate change science, local case
studies and teaching tools• Content:
– Basic facts and figures • The global perspective• The welsh perspective• The Severn Estuary
– Teaching tools • The string game• The adaptation challenge• Education pack
• Outcomes:– Improved understanding of the science behind climate change– Improved awareness of information sources, case studies and teaching
tools– Improved skills to deliver climate change lessons in a fun and
interactive way.
Basic Facts and Figures The global perspective
Figure 1. The Greenhouse Effect
Principle of the “Greenhouse Effect”
The sun shines down on the surface of the earth. About half the heat naturally reflects back out into space. When greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane are released into our atmosphere, they trap heat and stop it reflecting back out into space. This causes additional warming of the earth surface, ocean and atmosphere… just like a greenhouse! Source: www. global-greenhouse-warming.com
Eg. If outside, ask pupil to take off their coat for a few moments and then put it back on again!
Carbon Dioxide
Did you know?
Carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere from volcanic eruptions and burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas. However, most methane gas is produced by cattle!
Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere significantly increased around 1900. This co-incided with the Industrial Revolution. At this time, levels rose from about 250 parts per million to more than 375 parts per million.
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/mains2-2.html
Ask pupils what they think will happen if you shake a bottle of lemonade and then open it. This is CO2. Where does it go?
Global Results- Temperature 2029 and 2099
Source:http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-spm-6.html
Low level of greenhouse gas emissions
Medium level of greenhouse gas emissions
High level of greenhouse gas emissions
Did you know? It is very difficult to predict the amount of greenhouse gases we are likely to release in the future. The greater the amount released, the higher the predicted temperatures.
Ask pupils how long they are likely to charge their mobile phones for, how long they will use hairdryers next week, next year etc. Can’t guess???
What’s the difference between weather and climate??? Average geographical scales and conditions!
Global Results- Rainfall 2099 cf 1999
December, January, February (UK Winter) June, July, August (UK Summer)
Assuming medium levels of greenhouse gas emissions, precipitation in the form of rain, snow, sleet and hail is expected to increase by up to 20% in many Northern areas during the months of December, January and February. However, significant decreases of up to 20% are expected for areas such as North East Africa and Central America.
Reductions in precipitation of up to 20% are expected during the months of June, July and August across much of Europe and Africa.
Global Results- Sea Level since 1955
Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/figure-5-20.html
Water Expansion- Water expands as it warms up. This is thought by scientists to be the most dominant factor (>50%) in sea level change.
Melting Ice- The second most important factor is melting land ice. Water in glaciers and ice sheets has often been trapped as ice for tens of thousands of years. When land based glaciers and ice sheets melt, water flows into the sea and sea level rises.
What Does this Mean for Wales?Although the climate of the world is changing, effects could be different depending on where we live.
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1492/499/
Data based on medium emissions scenario. Sourced from UKCP09
> 3 - 4 ˚C
Temperature Changes 2080s
Summer Rainfall Changes 2080s
Winter Rainfall Changes 2080s
<10-40%
>0-30%
Sea LevelChanges 2080s
Following compression and subsequent “bouncing back” of land masses during the last Ice Age, northern parts of Wales are rising very slowly (0.07cm per year). This effect may reduce predicted sea level rises in North and West Wales.
Welsh Implications
Health and
wellbeing
Food supply and natural resources
Settlement
Critical infrastructure
Industry
Mitigate risks
Eg. Lower carbon
emissions
Adapt to risks
Eg. Modify houses
Climate change
See education pack for examples and activities
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Severn Case Study
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Everything is Related
The Severn Estuary Partnership provides a unique neutral role linking people and organisations for the future of the estuary.
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
How Is “Everything’s Related”???
Eg. effect of the natural environment on human activities.
Rhoda Ballinger, Cardiff University, http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/docs/ClimateChangeReportCard1.pdf Produced for the IMCORE project.
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Flood risk: characteristics
• 1 in 1000 flood- Newport Area. (Climate Change factor-100 years)
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Flood risk & climate change
Chepstow
Whole estuary rise 30 – 40 cm by
2080
• Some evidence of more storms over last 2 decades BUT not above levels of the 1920s
• Little evidence of human impact• Little evidence of increase in intensity or
frequency of storms over the UK in the future• Risk to estuary is from higher sea levels plus an
intense storm event
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Impacts of flood risk & Shoreline Management Planning
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Coastal defences on the Estuary
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
IMCORE Coastal Climate Change
– INTERREG IVB project– Key outputs
• Guidelines on coastal adaptation to climate change
– Focus on spatial planning (development of lowlying land around the estuary)
• Socio-economic scenarios associated with climate change
• Report cards simplifying science on climate change
• Education pack & activities
12
6
3
2
1
1
1
1
Development & Flood Risk
Nature Conservation
Renewable Energy Generation
Building Design
Cross-Border Working
Sustainability of Coastal Towns
Transport
Archaeology
Development & Flood Risk
“…Number one is flooding…huge issue…”; “…flooding is our big concern…”;
“…we have a small hamlet…really in danger…”;
“…so much of our urban development is in very vulnerable locations...”
www.imcore.eu
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
Further Information and Data Sources•State of the Severn Estuary Report - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/publications/soser.html
• The report aims to provide a non-technical overview of the current ‘State of the Severn Estuary’, informing a wide ranging audience – including Estuary locals and industry professionals alike – on why the Estuary is so unique.
•Severn Estuary Gateway - http://www.severnestuary.net•IMCORE - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/imcore/imcore_policyplanning.html•DeltaNet - http://www.severnestuary.net/sep/partnership/deltanet.html•Beacons YoCCo – http://www.yocco.org
Severn Estuary PartnershipWorking in partnership for the future of the Severn Estuary
•Other activity ideas and data sources / climate change information can be found in the ‘Adapting to Climate Change in Wales’ Education resorce pack for teachers and pupils of Key Stage 4.
•http://www.severnestuary.net/yocco/education.htm
The Adaptation ChallengeWorking in groups, imagine you are “Scott”, a 16 year old resident of Abernewydd.Let’s explore Scott’s future……
Adapt house?Energy supply?Transport?
InstructionsSee how well your group has adapted Scott’s house to climate changeHow well you’ve adapted will be measured by how many tokens your group has at the end of the game
The winning group will have the most tokens at the end (12 to start)!
For each time period (2040; 2060; 2080) we are going change: •Your personal circumstances•Government support•Natural events
We’ll throw the dice and dependent on the outcome, your group will LOSE or GAIN tokens
2040– DID YOU ADAPT SCOTT’S HOUSE?
– If you did, adaptation cost = 3 tokens
Over the Next Decades …..
Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change ….
Throw your dice
Scott’s Personal Circumstances Change ….
1 His insurer goes bankrupt – LOSE 2 TOKENS 2 He has difficulty getting house insurance - LOSE 1
TOKENS3 He falls behind on mortgage payments – LOSE 1 TOKEN4 His partner inherits a fortune – GAIN 3 TOKENS 5 He develops a water-based tourist business – GAIN 2
TOKENS6 He wins the lottery – GAIN 4 TOKENS
Government Support Changes …
Throw your die
Government Support Changes …
1 Large rise in council tax – LOSE 2 TOKENS2 Small increase in council tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN3 Rise in fuel tax – LOSE 1 TOKEN4 Small government grant for house adaptation – GAIN
1 TOKEN5 Large government grant for house adaptation – GAIN
2 TOKENS6 Government provides river defences – GAIN 3
TOKENS
Natural Events Occur
Throw your die
Natural Events Occur• 1 Drought – LOSE 1 TOKEN• 2 Big freeze – LOSE 1 TOKEN• 3 Perfect summer days – GAIN 1 TOKEN• 4 No major event5 River floods – LOSE 1 TOKEN or 2 if his insurance
company went bankrupt• 6 Major storm – LOSE 3 TOKENS or 4 if his
insurance company went bankrupt
Your Score So Far …
Talk through implications of these changes and repeat for time periods 2060 and 2080 if you wish.
What This Game Has Taught Us
• Various factors will affect your ability to adapt to future climate change
• Some of these are ‘chance’ factors e.g.
winning the lottery• Others you or government
can plan for • There are lots of adaptation
options
Quick Recap– Basic facts and figures
• The global perspective• The welsh perspective• The Severn Estuary
– Teaching tools • The adaptation challenge• Education pack and website
Thank You!
For more information, go to:http://www.severnestuary.net
http://ww.yocco.org
