043-0183

Using fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis to measure contract rules in complex project operations

Maria Kapsali & Jens Roehrich

• Abstract

How to use analytic induction and fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA)

To measure the effectiveness of contract rules in complex program operations

fsQCA is useful to simultaneously explore deductively causal complexity of variable configurations in complex operations and exploit the richness of in-depth qualitative data

• Why fsQCA

• We seek causal pathways to the same outcome, which may be achieved in different combinations of conditions, and that causation must be understood in terms of necessary and sufficient conditions

• Complex causal connections (causal complexity) are analysed using Boolean logic to explain pathways to a particular outcome. Complex and multiple patterns of causation may be explored

– statistical techniques assume that social phenomena are driven by unifinality, additivity, and symmetry, therefore it is difficult to model equifinal, conjunctural and asymmetric set relations in terms of sufficiency and necessity (Fiss, 2007: 1190)

– qualitative (written and especially verbal) data formulations are largely set theoretic in nature (Fiss, 2007; Ragin 1987, 2009) we need to study cases inductively as configurations and not as independent, analytically separate settings to acquire measurements from

• Why fsQCA (2)

• Qualitative comparative analysis has the advantage that it may not require as many cases as a case survey.

comparative research designs involve small and intermediate-size Ns (e.g., 5-50), but this range of cases is often too large for in-depth case analysis to retain patterns (analysis becomes too complicated), but also too few for conventional statistical techniques

• It can be used with previously conducted studies as well as with new studies, and thus encourages an evolutionary and integrative approach to knowledge creation. It allows easy integration of both qualitative and quantitative forms of evidence, and is transparent and systematic

• ‘fuzzy’ logic is a recent refinement of QCA so that it is not necessary to dichotomise variables so precisely and allows for more variation in set theoretic membership (continuous instead of binary)

• Used in : sociology, psychology, political science and history

Research design

Research Question

Which are the contract rules that successfully elicit compliant behaviour in programs?

Methodology Retroduction based on Critical Realism (Downward, 2008: 314)

Purpose Measure the characteristics of a social phenomenon

Find generalized patterns of complex causality to develop theory and assert plausible contextualized explanations

Instrumentation Qualitative multiple case studies (N=23)

Data 120 in-depth, semi-structured interviews and 23 project contracts/evaluation reports

Analysis (configurational) analysis of multiple conjuctural causality through fuzzy-set analysis (Ragin, 2008)

example

• Contracting Theories

Our aim: the middle way – systemic contract

Contracting theories

Type of studies

Focus of studies Result

Classical deductive modularity in contract structures incomplete

Neo-Classical inductive arbitration, collaboration incomplete

Relational inductive trust, commitment, reputation, networks, relational ties etc

incomplete

Middle-way ? retroductive combinations of factors, both modular and relational, into the causal mechanisms between rules and outcomes

?

level of complexity in transactions

Stable short- term relations Rational incentives Easy prediction of behaviour

Mediation for conflict Long- term diverse relations Relational networks, trust, commitment irrational incentives

Diverse, autonomous actors with mixed interdependencies and timings Really unpredictable relations

High

Medium

Low

Classical contracts Neo-classical + Relational contracts Middle way contracts ‘our study’

Fuzzy-set qualitative analysis in multiple case studies

1. Contract rules

Classify rules

Identify conditions and

outcomes

Build an analytic frame

2. Analysis

Anchors, and thresholds

(consistency and coverage)

Content analysis of case studies to assign values to conditions and

outcomes

Build truth table and retrieve

configurations from the software

3. Interpretation of configurations

Compare and explain the

configurations

Look again into the cases

Select configurations with the highest

significance (consistency-

coverage)

Minimize configurations

4.Conclusion

Explain causal complexity

between the conditions

Suggest which are the successful

results

Build a conceptual

model

Linkage control rules to prevent opportunism

Practical decision rules for generating all possible control responses

Emancipatory autonomy rules

formalization of action accountability rewards incentives obligations penalties - punishment exclusionfragmentation in supply chain standardization of tasks

communication at the interfaces co-decision processes formal meetings, boards, panels, conferences evaluation, feedback loops overlap and sharing complement of skills negotiations regarding the definition of the goal, planning, monitoring and executing participation of users

Rules that empower to self-regulate and self-organize knowledge creation coupling and interdependence adjust processes and habits leverage for change

The rules in the contracts categorized into three conditions (Smith, 2006)

• Classification of conditions – inductive approach for selecting Amenta and Poulsen (1994) and Yamasaki and Rihoux (2009)

Conditions Outcomes

Linkage rules

*Compliant (1)

Mostly compliant (0.75)

Ambiguous (0.50)

Insufficiently compliant (0.25)

Non-compliant (0)

Practical rules

*

Emancipatory rules

fsQCA anchors

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1Not significant less significant cross-over point mostly significant highly

significantthe point of maximum ambiguity

Analytic frame

The analytic frame (conditions and outcomes) and with the fsQCA measure scale

Program PPP (6 projects) IST/eTEN (14 projects)

EARSS (3 projects)

Nature Highly complex Medium to highly complex

Simple

Duration Up to 30 years 18-36 months 6 years

Description Multiple national projects for the construction of healthcare facilities

Multiple transnational projects for the creation and deployment of telemedicine

Multiple national projects for the creation of a European ICT epidemiology network

Contract type

Outcome Based non-standard contract  

Performance Based contract - Classical

Memorandum of agreement Highly relational – minimum critical specifications

Simple Medium to highly ComplexHighly complex

Contract structure

Linkage Practical Emancipatory Outcome

EARSS 0.75 0.75 0.75 10.75 0.25 0.75 0.50.5 0.75 0.5 1

IST - eTEN

1 1 0.5 0.750.75 0.5 0.5 1

1 0.5 0.25 0.251 0.5 0.25 0.751 1 0.5 01 1 0.5 0.251 0.5 0.25 01 0.25 0.25 11 0.25 0.25 0.751 0.5 0.5 0.51 0.25 0.5 01 0.5 0.25 11 0.25 0.5 0.251 0.5 0.75 0

PPP 0.75 1 0 0.250.75 0.75 0.25 00.5 0.5 0.25 10.75 0.75 0 0.50.5 0.5 0.25 10.5 0.75 0.25 0.75

Truth Table

with the values of each condition for each

project

  Positive Behaviour Significant minimized configurations consistency coverage combined

EARSS ~linkage*~practical 1 0.200000 0.444972

practical 1 0.700000 0.832466

linkage*~practical*emancipatory 0.8 0.400000 0.565685

linkage*practical*~emancipatory 1 0.400000 0.629285

IST-eTEN ~linkage*emancipatory 1 0.038462 0.195133

~linkage 1 0.038462 0.195133

PPP ~linkage*practical*emancipatory 0.750000 0.214286 0.376070

~linkage*~emancipatory 0.888889 0.571429 0.736788

~practical*~emancipatory 0.857143 0.428571 0.624500

~linkage 0.888889 0.571429 0.736788

Cross case configurations ~linkage ~linkage*(emancipatory + practical + practical * ~emancipatory + ~practical *emancipatory)

The resulting configurations

Within case configurations

Discussion: what do the results say

The rules depend on a) interdependence and b) modularity within the programs

PPP IST/eTEN EARSS

Mixed Interdependencies Low interdependence High interdependence

Medium Modularity High Modularity High Modularity

less linkage minimum linkage minimum linkage

combine practical & emancipatory emancipatory practical

averse emancipatory

Simple Medium to highly ComplexHighly complex

Conclusions and Implications • refute the idea of internalized complexity (Ashby, 1958)

• or that a complex contract is unavoidable (Eggleston et al., 2000)

• or that a contract should be complete and optimal (classical theory)

• or that relationships matter more than rules (relational theory)

balance of rules

The systemic contract is flexible and enabling, directs evolutionary-emergent action, not just controls (Remington, 2011)

• identify which patterns of behaviour in a complex system are predictable and can be standardized

• provide platforms for patterns of behaviour that self-emerge and are uncontrollable but highly desirable in situations require high interdependence and flexibility

• contracts should be purposely incomplete, focusing on adaptation and interdependence and use control to a measure

analytic induction can merge the mode of confirmatory analysis used in management approaches with the exploratory nature of work in

complexity theories (Phelan, 1998)

Contact details

Dr Jens RoehrichAssistant Professor in Operations and Supply Management

School of Management

Information, Decision and Operations Group University of Bath e: j.roehrich@bath.ac.ukw: www.bath.ac.uk/management

Dr Maria Kapsali

Browaldh fellow - Assistant Professor in Projects, Innovation and Networks

Umeå School of Business and Economics Umeå Universitet

Biblioteksgränd 6, 901 87 Umeå, Sweden

 

e: maria.kapsali@usbe.umu.se

t: +46 (0)90 786 5441

w: http://uk.linkedin.com/in/mariakapsali

skype: maria.kapsali25

twitter: marukapsalis

• Appendices

• Retroduction: Logical reasoning • Critical Realism • Details on the 23 projects

• Why fsQCA (3)

Theory Generalization

How deduction, induction and retroduction work through empirics and theory (Alvesson and Skoldberg, 1994)

Empirical Specific

Deduction InductionRetroduction

Deduction Logical inferences from major and minor “ if ” assumptions – hypotheses form probability statements when all conditions being equal the higher past frequency the higher the probability to inference being generalizable

Formally correct but sometimes empirically flawed- it depends on the “correctness” of assumptions

Induction Logical inferences from specific cases to the general rules- construct the origins or preconditions of a rule, piece by piece – focus on causation Highly context specific – not generalizable

Inductive thinking is susceptible to habit, subjective experience and expectation

Abduction The act of seeing something anew, a “flash” where you connect pieces of information to understand an unexpected rule – application of common sense to find the most plausible explanation

Abductive reasoning is comparative judgment and its clarity is non systematic and questionable

Retroduction Aims to assert the necessary and sufficient causes and preconditions to be produced or reproduced, for the phenomenon to come into existence

Makes comparative judgment systematic and relatively general

The four types of scientific abstraction – logical reasoning (as in Bertilsson, 2004).

RULE and CASE to RESULT

CASE and RESULT to RULE

RULE and RESULT to CASE

Core Ontological Assumptions Reality as a concrete process

Assumptions About Human Nature Man as an adaptor

Basic Epistemological Stance To study systems, process, change

Favored Metaphors Organism

Table 6.1: The ontological assumptions of CR

Real

Actual

Empirical

Contingent conditions

Triggers

Observation Experience

Intrinsic objects Mechanisms

Events and tendencies Patterns

may or may not fire

may or may not be observable

The ontology of CR (Modell, 2005)

(Downward, 2008: 314).

Epistemology Role of theory

What is real is not given (there are levels of reality). The world has both

forced and emergent structures. People’s involvement with structures is

transformational

Theory is a conjecture about the connectedness of

events and the causal sequences produced by generative mechanisms

Nature of explanation Method of study

Something is explained if it is allocated a place at the end of a causal

sequence. There may be multiple causes of a single event coming from

the context. Contextualized explanation

The aim is to produce a theory which accurately

identifies causal mechanisms

Retroduction Assert the necessary and sufficient causes and preconditions to produce or reproduce the phenomenon/event

Makes comparative judgment (abduction) systematic and relatively general

Projects Performance Bundle Contract length Contract nature and valueEARSS 1 Concurrent national project 1998 – 2006 Minimum specifications EARSS 2 Concurrent national project 1998 – 2006 **EARSS 3 Concurrent national project 1998 – 2006 **IST GALEN Open Source ontology development 1997 - 1999 Classical- performanceIST ODIN European nursing informatics and telematics 1999 - 2001 **

IST TELECARE Patient Telemonitoring Ultra Low Discomfort Vital Signs Sensors over Mobile Networks 2001- 2005 ** € 1.8 m

IST PROMPT Peripheral Regions Oriented Measure 1999 - 2001 ** € 512.419

IST M2DM Multi-Access telematic Management of Diabetes Mellitus 2001 - 2005 ** € 2.100.578

eTEN AIDMAN feasibility study protocol models, effectiveness and performance for deployment 1999 - 2000 ** €0.73m

eTEN EURODONOR definition, specification realisation of European Organ Data Exchange Portal Data Base 2003 - 2004 ** €3.19m

eTEN EVITAL validate the European market for remote monitoring service 2002 - 2004 ** €2.13m

eTEN MEDASHIP Medical consultation Assistance for ships service 2002 - 2003 ** €2.73m

eTEN MEDCONTI-NETanalyse market demand for a Home Care system in cross-national context 2002 - 2003 ** €2.63m

eTEN IREMMA establish a trans-European network, services for environmental diseases, Asthma Allergy 2002 - 2004 ** €1.82m

eTEN TELE-REMEDY feasibility study, commercial validation and large-scale deployment 1998 - 1999 ** €3.2m

eTEN MEDICATE

Medical Diagnosis, Communications and Analysis Throughout Europe for monitor asthma patients in own homes 1999 - 2000 ** €3.67m

eTEN NIVEMES develop an international network of Telemedicine providers and services 1996 - 1998 ** €3m

Hospital A Design, build, finance and operate (DBFO); construction of new hospital; hard and soft service FM

30 years Classical - Output Non-standard £150m

Hospital B 30 years ** Standard (version 3) £150m

Waste Management A DBFO; construction of new waste treatment plants and stations; no waste collection

25 years ** Non-standard £35m

Waste Management B 25 years ** Non-standard £100m

Fire and Rescue Service A DBFO; construction of new training facility; hard (estate) and soft service FM

25 years ** Non-standard £20m

Fire and Rescue Service B 25 years ** Non-standard £10m

The four types of projects in this order (top-down): EARSS, IST, PPP and eTEN