Agmip Clip India Pmh

8/13/2019 Agmip Clip India Pmh

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Crop livestock intensification in the

face of climate change


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Study sites


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Fast track site

NKAYI

MATEBELELA

ND

SOUTH

MA T EB E LE LAN D

N O R TH

M ASHO NAL AND

C ENT RALM ASHO NAL AND

W E S T

MASH

ONALAND

EAST

MA S VI N GO

MAN

ICAL

AN

D

MI

D

LANDS

HARARE

BULAWAYO

NKAYI

DISTRICT

VIII

IXVI

X

XI

XIII XIV XV

XXIV

XXV

XXIII

XVI

IV

III

III

V

XII

XXII

XX

XVII

XVIII

XIX

XXVI

VII

District B oundary

Ward Boundary

Village Boundary

Research Wards

II Ward Name

EXPLANATION

0 20km

Site selection:Southern Africa

Village selection:

8 villagesDistance from markets and roads

Village level surveys:Focus group discussions

~ 30 farmers of different wealth, gender

and age per each village (n=24)

Household surveys:Quantitative interviews

20 households per village, stratified by

wealth (n=160)


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Farm Systems Characteristics

1. Population and strataPopulation:160 HH (20HH per 8 villages) in Nkayi, South West Zimbabwe

Strata:Ownership of ruminants (TLU)

2. Mixed crop livestock sub-systemsMaize and other crops: Grain and residues

Cattle and other livestock: Milk, draft power, manure, milk

3. Crop, livestock and outcome componentsProduction: Maize grain and residues, cattle milk and meat

Gains and losses: Net returns on maize, other crops, cattle, other livestock

Herd size Thresholds (TLU) % household

No/few ruminants 0-0.49 29.4

Small herd 0.5-5.4 41.3

Large herd >5.4 29.4


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Integrated crop-livestock systems

Soil fertility

Feedshortages


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Food security

0

10

20

30

40

5060

70

80

90

100

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Probabilityofexce

edence(%)

% grain requirement met

Control

Micro-dose

Mz_muc

100%


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Feed gap analysis

Monthly feed supply (pasture, green & crop residues, red)

versus feed demand (black line) for an example household

Base climate Future climate

Feed gap analysis is translated into livestock cost/benefits:

- Milk and meat production in case of feed surplus

- Costs for stock feed in case of feed shortage


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From feed gaps to livestock cost/benefitsFeed gap

analysis is

translated into

livestockcost/benefits:

- Milk and meat

production in

case of feed

surplus

- Costs forstock feed in

case of feed

shortage

% change is used to calculate future livestock livestock cost/benefits based on observed data:

cost/benefit_future = cost/benefit_observed * %change

where %change = (modelled_future - modelled_historic)/modelled_historic

milk meat concentrates

base future base future base future

HH id kg kg % change kg kg % change kg kg % change43102 1176 912 -22% 117 91 -22% 685 1448 111%

43104 786 594 -24% 79 59 -24% 793 1388 75%

43107 1176 912 -22% 117 91 -22% 685 1448 111%

43119 1296 1092 -16% 130 109 -16% 394 923 134%

43120 3542 2970 -16% 354 297 -16% 1136 2664 134%

43202 0 0

43203 1248 784 -37% 125 78 -37% 4929 6328 28%

43204 0 0

43205 212 110 -48% 21 11 -48% 1665 1979 19%

43206 1968 1698 -14% 197 169 -14% 490 1208 147%

43207 972 834 -14% 97 83 -14% 279 664 138%43208 1008 888 -12% 101 89 -12% 180 497 176%

BENEFITS COSTS


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-600

-400

-200

0

200

400600

0 50 100

S2a S2b S2c S3

Gain/loss diagram for each stratum from the TOA-MDanalysis

$/yr


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Household modelling: APSFarm

Rodriguez, D., Cox, H., deVoil, P., Power, B. 2012. A whole farm modelling approach to understand impacts and increase preparedness to climate change in

Australia. Ag. Systems

Rodriguez D, deVoil P, Power B, Cox H, Crimp S, Meinke H (2011) The intrinsic plasticity of farm businesses and their resilience to change. An Australian

example. Field Crops Res. 124, 157-170.

Power, B., Rodriguez, D., deVoil, P., Harris, G., Payero, J., 2011. A multi-field bio-economic model of irrigated grain-cotton farming systems. Field Crop Res.

124, 171-179.


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LivSim (Rufino et al., 2008)


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APSFarm-LivSimRelevantinterventions

Profits Risks SustainabilityFood security

Livestock No livestock Livestock

Own and hired labour Labour constrained

Less land constrained Land constrained

More educated No educated

Potential production

M

aizeharvested

APSFarm-LivSim simulation


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Expected outputs

Detailed description of farming systems and developed

crop-livestock management practices relevant to different

household typologies Interactions and synergies of increased diversity and

integration (agro-ecological and economic opportunities)

and their contribution to reduce risk and increase system

resilience explored through modelling

Documents

Agmip Clip India Pmh