Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data

Ireland’s Return to Growth: Statistical anomaly or real recovery?

40,000

42,000

44,000

46,000

48,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Quarterly GDP

economic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts

Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GDP at constant (2012) market prices

Gross Domestic Product

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

Gro

wth

Rat

e, %

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Annual GDP Growth Rate



Annual change of GDP at constant market prices per quarter

Annual GDP Growth Rates

Economist’s Reaction

• “The boom is back”

• “This is the strongest growth rate recorded since the early 2000’s”

• “...the economy is recovering really rapidly”

• “Stonking”

• “The strength of the recovery is now such that government does not need any additional austerity measures to fix the public finances”

• “Taking all the factors into consideration, these latest numbers are gangbusters...easing the pressure on the fiscal front for Budget 2015...

Media Reaction

• “Ireland's economy fastest growing in European Union” (The Guardian)

• “Ireland leaves eurozone behind as exports boom” (The Telegraph)

• “Ireland's Economy Surges Ahead of Eurozone” (WSJ)

• “Ireland is a spending nation once again as Celtic Phoenix rises” (Irish Independent)

• “Irish Economy Grows Annual 7.7%, Fastest Pace Since 2007” (Bloomberg)

• “Irish economy charges ahead in the second quarter” (Reuters)

• “Ireland returns to boomtime growth levels” (FT)

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Quarterly GNP



Seasonally adjusted Quarterly GNP at constant (2012) market prices

Gross National Product

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

GDP

GNP



Seasonally adjusted GDP and GNP at constant market prices

Quarterly GDP and GNP

-12.0

-6.0

0.0

6.0

12.0

perc

ent

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4



Contribution of Domestic Demand and Net Exports to Real GDP Growth

Contribution to Annual Growth

Domestic Economy Net Exports

32,000

34,000

36,000

38,000

40,000

42,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

C + I + G


Source: Central Statistics Office

Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant market prices

Domestic Component of GDP

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumption Investment Government



Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices

Domestic Components of GDP

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Consumption Investment Government



Seasonally adjusted components of GDP at constant (2012) market prices

Domestic Components of GDP

30,000

34,000

38,000

42,000

46,000

50,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Exports

Imports


Source: CSO: Quarterly National Accounts

Seasonally adjusted exports and imports at constant market prices

Trade Components of GDP

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Service Imports

Service Exports



Quarterly exports at current market prices

Services Exports and Imports

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Goods Exports

Goods Importseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com



Goods Exports and Imports

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Goods Exports





10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Goods Exports





10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Goods Exports: National Accounts

Goods Exports: Trade Statisticseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com

Source: CSO, Quarterly National Accounts & Trade Statistics


Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics

10,000

14,000

18,000

22,000

26,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

National Accounts

Trade Statisticseconomic-incentives.blogspot.com



Good Exports: National Accounts versus Trade Statistics

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

€, m

illio

ns

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

National AccountsTrade Adjustment



Difference between Good Net Exports in Trade Statistics and QNAs

Trade Adjustments in the National Accounts

96

100

104

108

112

116

Ind

ex V

alu

e

Jan 10 Jul 10 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14

Value Index

Volume Indexeconomic-incentives.blogspot.com


Value and Volume of Retail Sales for All Businesses (Jan 2010 = 100)

Retail Sales Index

94

96

98

100

102

Ind

ex V

alu

e


Value Index

Volume Indexeconomic-incentives.blogspot.com


Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades (Jan 2010 = 100)

Retail Sales Index excluding Motor Trades

-9.0

-6.0

-3.0

0.0

3.0

Ann

ual C

han

ge ,%


Value Index

Volume Index



Value and Volume of Retail Sales excluding Motor Trades

Annual Changes in Retail Sales Index

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

000s

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Source: Central Statistics Office, QNHS: Table QNQ03

Total employment 2008-2013, seasonally adjusted quarterly data

Numbers Employed

Questions and Comments Welcome

Education

Presentation to Institute of Directors on Q2 economic data