Introduction to Risk Management: Concepts, Approaches and Current Thinking

Joseph KingBuilding Capacity in Natural Risk Preparedness

for Cultural Heritage Sites in AlbaniaTirana, Albania – 19 April 2011

• Damage from disasters, including to heritage resources, is increasing every year

- Better communication and information

- Wider definition of the term “heritage”

- Larger footprint- Other?

Disaster Risk as a Threat

• Disaster risk vs. other slower acting risks

• Disaster Risk is often expresses with the equation:

Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability

• For Disaster Risk to increase, either the frequency or strength of the hazard must increase or there must be more vulnerability (or both)

What is Disaster Risk and Why Is It Increasing?

• Most common hazards include earthquakes, fires, floods, hurricanes/typhoons, tsunamis

• Some of these may be increasing due to changes in weather patterns, etc.

Is the frequency or intensity of hazards going up?

Earthquake in L’Aquila, Italy

Tsunamis in Indonesia and Japan

Hurricane Katrina

Copyright © Skip Bolen

Fires in Uganda and Madagascar

Source –http://news.bbc.co.uk

Terror Attach in Mumbai, India

• Lack of Maintenance and poverty

• Inappropriate Restoration

• Rampant Urbanization

• Building where we didn’t in the past

• Loss of traditional knowledge systems

• Vulnerability to secondary hazards

Is our vulnerability Increasing?

• Effective DRM for heritage starts with advance planning and preparation

• DRM should be conceived in ways which have the least impact on the heritage values (including OUV) while ensuring safety

• Advance planning should be conceived in terms of the whole property, and provide integrated concern for its buildings, structures, natural features, and their associated contents and landscapes

• Planning should include multiple for multiple risks• Property occupants and users should be directly involved

in development of emergency-response plans• Following a disaster, every effort should be made to ensure

the retention and repair of structures or features that have suffered damage or loss

Some Key Principles

Disaster Risk Management (DRM) is a cycle for which planning for a disaster (prevention), response to the disaster, and recovery from the disaster must always be in motion

The DRM Cycle

• Improvements within the heritage profession

• Better integration between the heritage profession and the larger disaster reduction community

• Better relationships with local communities and use of their skills and knowledge

How can we improve the situation?

• Coordination of activities• Developing joint tools• Sharing information• Developing serious

research on both “modern techniques” and traditional knowledge systems

• Developing best practices• Developing capacity

building activities

Improvements within the Heritage Profession

• Emphasis on management planning/management systems which take into account disaster risk (DRM)

• Maintenance and simple solutions where applicable

• More complex solutions where necessary and feasible

Improvements within the Heritage Profession

Integrating with larger Disaster Reduction Community

The global Disaster Risk Reduction sector is currently not concerned with the heritage

GLOBAL FIELD OF RISK REDUCTION

HERITAGE

The Heritage sector does not know the “language” of DR

Courtesy of Giovanni Boccardi, UNESCO WHC

• Speaking the same language

• Heritage being accepted as one of many concerns

• Use of heritage as a positive proactive force at the readiness, response, and recovery phases

Integrating with larger Disaster Reduction Community

• Using traditional building materials and techniques of construction

• Using traditional land use planning

• Using existing social/cultural decision- making/leadership

• Learning from local knowledge (myths, taboos, warning systems, planning)

Use of heritage during readiness phase

Use of heritage during readiness phase

Don’t Tear It DownBy Randolph Langenbach

Use of heritage during readiness phase

Use of heritage during response phase

• Using heritage places as meeting points/shelter

• Using existing social/cultural decision- making/leadership structures in response

Use of heritage during recovery phase

• Using traditional knowledge for planning, materials, and know-how

• Using heritage as an economic resource through tourism

• Paying attention to local needs

• Using traditional knowledge systems (community as a knowledge resource)

• Involving communities in all aspects of the process from the beginning (starting with planning)

Improving relations with the Community

New Approaches: World Heritage Strategy

• Purpose‒

Strengthen protection of WH and contribute to sustainable development by integrating heritage into risk reduction policies and incorporate concern for disaster reduction within site Management Plans

‒

Provide guidance to integrate risk reduction into WH strategic planning and management

New Approaches: World Heritage Strategy

• Objectives1. Strengthening institutional support and

governance for reducing risks at World Heritage properties;

2. Using knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of disaster prevention at WH properties

3. Identifying, assessing and monitoring risks from disasters at WH properties

4. Reducing underlying risk factors at WH properties

5. Strengthening disaster preparedness at WH properties

These follow closely the five priority areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action

First Publication in a New Series of Resource Manuals for World Heritage

Available for download at:http://whc.unesco.org/en/activities/630/http://whc.unesco.org/fr/activities/630/

• What is Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and why is it important?

• What does a DRM plan consist of?• How do you get started?• How do you identify and assess disaster risks?• How can you prevent disaster risks or mitigate their

impact?• How do you prepare for and respond to

emergencies?• How do you recover and rehabilitate your property

after a disaster?• How do you implement, reassess and reappraise the

DRM plan?Table of Contents

• Glossary of Disaster Management Terms• Typology of Hazards• Relevant Charters and Recommendations• International Organizations and Research

Institutions • Key References and Publications

Annexes

The manual is meant to:• give an overall framework and approach to DRM• help site managers develop DRM plans for their

properties

The manual is not meant to:• Give detailed information on every type of hazard or

disaster situation (there is a list of key publications where you can find more information on specific issues)

The Purpose of the Manual

The Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Cycle

Where does DRM Fit Into Overall Planning

These can be separate (but linked) plans or the DRM can be part of the overall

management plan

Possible links include visitor management, community involvement, maintenance and monitoring to name a few

Components of a DRM plan

Relationship of the Plan to the DRM Cycle

• Site manager• Site staff• Local and national government• Community leaders/communities• Local scientists and researchers• Health services• Police, firefighters, and other

emergency response organizations (local and national)

Core Team and Other Key Stakeholders

• Attributes that carry the OUV (SOUV)• Geographical information• Geological, hydrological, meteorological information• Factors and processes for probable hazards (including

probable frequency)• Thematic hazard maps, heritage risk maps, etc.• Disaster histories• Inventories of the heritage and also existing DRM

infrastructure• Existing plans and planning mechanisms for DRM and

more generally for physical planning (at all levels)• Institutions relevant to DRM and heritage• Traditional knowledge systems

Information Needed to Identify Disaster Risks

Macedonia - Zone 3: 10% chance every 50 years of a destructive earthquake.

Delhi’s Seismicity (Seismo‐tectonic Map around Delhi region, (after Sharma 2003) )

Source: Improving the Seismic Resistance of Cultural Heritage Buildings, EU‐India Economic Cross Cultural Programme

24.5

25.5

26.5

27.5

28.5

29.5

30.5

31.5

32.5

74.5 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 79.5 80.5 81.5 82.5

Longitude ºE

Latit

ude

ºN

Magnitude < 2 Magnitude 2 to 3 Magnitude 3 to 4 Magnitude 4 to 5 Magnitude 5 to 6 Magnitude > 6 Places

Slide Source: Prof C V R Murthy, IIT Kanpur

Epicenters in and around Delhi Region (100 Years)

Delhi’s Seismicity (cont’d)

Delhi’s HISTORICAL SEISMICITY in brief

Date Magnitude

893 or 894 (Intensity XI, XII) -

15.07.1720 (intensity IX in Delhi) 6.5

01.09.1803 7.0

16.01.1842 5.5

05.03.1842 5.5

26.04.1848 6.0

04.04.1905 8.0

26.02.1906 7.0

14.04.1934 5.0

20.10.1937 6.0

10.10.1956 6.7

27.08.1960 6.0

20.06.1966 Delhi-Gurgaon Border 4.7

15.08.1966 5.6

13.02.1969 5.1

23.03.1984 5.1

Risk Analysis Process

Prioritizing Risks

Writing Disaster Scenarios

• Creative activity to imagine possible disaster scenarios

• Alternative scenarios should be developed• Should be developed based on different types of

likely hazards coming alone or together • Secondary or follow-on hazards should be

considered (e.g. fire after an earthquake)• Should be written as narratives

Planning Areas

• Measures to prevent or mitigate disasters– Ensure actions don’t have negative impact on OUV– Use traditional knowledge systems

• Preparation and response – Planning for the first 72 hours– Roles and responsibilities of team members– Establishing procedures and ensuring emergency

equipment• Recovery and rehabilitation

– Assessing damage – Planning for short and long term recovery– Reviewing the planning and response

Conserving Culture, Promoting Diversity

www.iccrom.org