U.S. employment rate data and trends May 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

All jobs are now finally recovered from

prior employment peak…79 months later

U.S. employment situation: May 2014 June 6, 2014

What were May’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

• Total non-farm employment

increased by 217,000 jobs, the

fourth consecutive month of

200,000+ additions.

• Unemployment held steady at 6.3

percent.

• The U.S. economy has finally

regained all lost jobs and is currently

98,000 jobs above its previous peak.

• Growth was highly concentrated in

three major subsectors in May:

education and health, PBS and

leisure and hospitality.

• On a year-on-year basis, PBS has

been by far the leader among

subsectors, with core segments

contributing roughly four in five new

jobs.

• Although the public sector has shed

jobs in comparison to two years ago,

May marked the fourth consecutive

month of net increases in

government employment.

• White-collar unemployment

decreased to just 3.2 percent.

• Tech and energy are both on the up,

while total non-farm and office-using

job growth remain steady.

• Consumer confidence increased yet

again to 83.0 points, the third month

in a row above 80.0 points.

• Although slowing somewhat, online

help ads remain near peak at 4.9

million.

• Some Sunbelt markets are

increasing year-on-year gains in to

more than 4.0 percent.

• Midwestern and East Coast

geographies continue to grapple

with below-average employment

growth, some still contracting.

• The labor force participation rate is

stuck at its record low of 62.8

percent.

• Total unemployment dropped by

only 10 basis points to 12.2 percent

and is still nearly double the official

rate of 6.3 percent.

• A slowdown in office-using job

growth means that only one in four

new jobs in May was in PBS,

financial activities or information.

• Non-durable goods slowing down

goods-producing employment.

• High school graduate participation

fell to 57.9 percent.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

OVERVIEW

June marked the fourth consecutive month of 200,000+

monthly job additions; this had yet to occur during the

recovery prior 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

203,

000

282,

000

217,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

Three-month growth currently rests at 702,000 jobs as

unemployment remains stable at 6.3 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

The national economy has finally gained back all lost

jobs…79 months into the cycle

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

Jobs lost during recession…

Jobs gained during recovery…

As a result, total non-farm employment is now 98,000 jobs

higher than its previous peak


6

OVERVIEW

Office-using jobs lost

during recession…

Office-using jobs gained

during recovery…

This has been the case for the office-using sector for a while,

however, which continues to outperform the national economy


7

OVERVIEW

-7.0

-5.0

1.0

2.0

2.9

3.0

4.0

6.0

9.9

10.0

12.5

14.3

16.4

17.0

39.0

54.9

55.0

63.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80

Nondurable goods

Information

Government

Mining and logging

Motor vehicles and parts

Financial activities

Other services

Construction

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

Retail trade

Temporary help services

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Leisure and hospitality

Health care and social assistance

Professional and business services

Education and health services

1-month net change (thousands)

Education and health overtakes PBS as the largest monthly

contributor; growth largely concentrated in major subsectors


8

OVERVIEW

Education and health

PBS


All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

72.4 percent of

monthly

growth.

-31.0

0.0

17.0

45.0

46.0

46.0

65.1

105.0

105.0

125.6

132.0

188.0

223.8

316.2

317.4

363.0

391.0

635.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Information

Nondurable goods

Government

Mining and logging


Other services

Motor vehicles and parts

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Transportation and warehousing

Wholesale trade

Construction

Temporary help services

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Education and health services


Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS


Education and health

Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Only information posts a net loss of jobs year-on-year; PBS,

health, education, retail and leisure continue to lead


9

Core subsectors added 78.1 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

OVERVIEW

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Although lower than 2012 levels, public sector employment

growth has been positive for four consecutive months

Private sector hiring up 4.0

million since May 2012

Public sector shed 41,000 workers

since April 2012


10

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

White-collar unemployment dropped to 3.2 percent, although

high school grads saw a 20bp increase in unemployment

3.3%

6.3%


11

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech and energy, mining and utilities are both on the up; total

non-farm and office-using steady

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through April 2014.

12

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown

in recent months

Year-on-year percent employment growth


13

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims are declining slowly and

averaging only 310,000 claims per week

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

14

BRIGHT SPOT

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence increased by 70bp to 83.0 points, the third

consecutive month of 80.0+ points

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

BRIGHT SPOT

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

Online help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

Online help wanted ads are hovering around 4.9 million, high,

but slowing

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

16

BRIGHT SPOT

Bay Area, Texas and the Sunbelt markets continue to see fastest

employment growth, with some growing more than 4.0 percent


17

BRIGHT SPOT

Austin

3.5%

Dallas

3.8%

Jacksonville

3.3%

Raleigh-Durham

4.1%

Silicon Valley

4.0%

Orlando

4.5%

Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest

of the country in growth


18

CHALLENGE

New Jersey

0.0%

Philadelphia

0.5%

Washington,

DC

0.2%

Pittsburgh

0.5%

Cleveland

0.6%

Detroit

-0.3%

The labor force participation remained at a record low of 62.8

percent in May


19

CHALLENGE

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Total unemployment fell to 12.2 percent, but is double the

official rate of 6.3 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


20

CHALLENGE

Fewer than one in four jobs added in May were office-using

(although rate of growth remains faster than total non-farm)


21

CHALLENGE

This slowdown occurred across the board, even in PBS,

which drives the office-using sector

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In May 2014, it represented all 25.3 percent of new office jobs.


22

CHALLENGE

Goods-producing employment on the up, but still suppressed

due to neutral non-durable goods growth

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


23

CHALLENGE

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

58

59

60

61

62

63

College graduates

High school grads no college

Labor force participation for high school graduates drops to

just 57.9 percent

Col

lege

gra

duat

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

(%)

High school graduate participation (%

)


24

CHALLENGE

Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, growing at 8.5

percent year-on-year

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


25

CHALLENGE

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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Economy & Finance

U.S. employment rate data and trends May 2014