U.S. employment rate data and trends July 2014

U.S. employment situation: September 2013

Release date: October 22, 2013

Seven months into the year,

employment is up by 1.6 million jobs

U.S. employment situation: July 2014 August 1, 2014

What were July’s bright spots and challenges?

Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2

• The U.S. economy added 209,000

jobs in July. Combined with revised

figures for the previous two months,

the three-month trailing total is now

736,000 jobs.

• The unemployment rate increased

by 10 basis points to 6.2 percent,

remaining relatively flat as has been

the case through much of the

recovery.

• Monthly growth has become

increasingly evenly distributed, with

the top three contributors

responsible for less than one half of

jobs added in July.

• The sustained 200,000+ monthly

additions have pushed year-on-year

total non-farm employment up 1.9

percent with diverse contributors.

• Unemployment for college graduates

dropped yet again, this month to 3.1

percent. While high school

unemployment increased, both are

below the national rate.

• Goods-producing employment is

making a comeback and has

consistently shown 20,000+ monthly

gains.

• Tech’s year-on-year increase is now

at 4.2 percent, while energy is also

on the up.

• Initial claims are falling, with weekly

figures now hovering around

300,000.

• Consumer confidence exceeds 90

points as indicators continue to rise.

• Online help wanted ads, despite no

growth, are still at record highs.

• Some East Coast and Midwestern

markets continue to post year-on-

year job growth of less than 1.0

percent.

• The labor force participation rate is

neutral at 62.9 percent, near the

record low reached earlier in 2014.

• Total unemployment also rose by

10 basis points to 12.2 percent.

• PBS’ slowdown in job creation

means that slightly more than one

quarter of new jobs in July were

office-using. The labor force

participation rate for both high

school and college graduates is on

the decline.

• Temporary help services remains at

record highs and is approaching 2.9

million.

Overview Bright spots Challenges

OVERVIEW

July marked the sixth consecutive month of 200,000+ monthly

job growth; revisions to previous months a slight boost 22

0,00

0

121,

000

120,

000

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

106,

000

122,

000

221,

000

183,

000

164,

000 19

6,00

0

360,

000

226,

000

243,

000

96,0

00

110,

000

88,0

00

160,

000

150,

000

161,

000

225,

000

203,

000

214,

000

197,

000

280,

000

141,

000

203,

000

199,

000

201,

000

149,

000

202,

000

164,

000

237,

000 27

4,00

0

84,0

00

144,

000

222,

000

201,

000

304,

000

229,

000

298,

000

209,

000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Oct

-10

Dec

-11

Feb

-11

Apr

-11

Jun-

11

Aug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Apr

-12

Jun-

12

Aug

-12

Oct

-12

Dec

-12

Feb

-13

Apr

-13

Jun-

13

Aug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Apr

-14

Jun-

14

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge


3

OVERVIEW

As a result, the national economy has added 736,000 jobs over

the past three months; unemployment up 10bp at 6.2 percent

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Monthly employment change Unemployment rate


4

OVERVIEW

90.0%

92.0%

94.0%

96.0%

98.0%

100.0%

102.0%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80

1973 1981 1990 2001 2007

There are now 639,000 more jobs than at the previous peak,

an increase of 0.5 percent

Rec

over

ed jo

bs (

%)

Past recessions (40 years)


Pre-recession employment level

5

OVERVIEW

-2.0

1.2

2.0

2.7

7.0

7.0

7.9

8.0

8.5

11.0

14.6

17.0

21.0

22.0

25.4

26.7

28.0

30.0

47.0

-40 -20 0 20 40 60

Nondurable goods

Utilities

Information

Wholesale trade

Other services

Financial activities

Transportation and warehousing

Mining and logging

Temporary help services

Government

Motor vehicles and parts

Education and health services

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Health care and social assistance

Retail trade

Manufacturing

Durable goods

Professional and business services

1-month net change (thousands)

Monthly growth was even more evenly distributed in July, with

the top three sectors contributing less than half of all new jobs


6

OVERVIEW

PBS

Manufacturing

Retail trade

All other subsectors

Top three

subsectors

responsible for

48.7 percent of

monthly

growth.

-31.0

0.0

9.0

48.0

49.0

50.0

60.7

91.0

127.3

150.8

169.0

178.0

211.0

216.7

297.6

336.3

375.0

375.0

648.0

-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Information

Utilities

Nondurable goods

Other services

Mining and logging


Motor vehicles and parts

Government

Wholesale trade

Transportation and warehousing

Durable goods

Manufacturing

Construction

Temporary help services

Retail trade

Health care and social assistance

Education and health services


Professional and business services

12-month net change (thousands)

PBS


Education and health

Retail trade

Manufacturing


All other jobs

Year-on-year gains also continue to broaden as PBS growth

slows and other sectors catch up


7

Core subsectors added 74.8 percent

of all jobs over the past 12 months.

OVERVIEW

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Change in '000s jobs

Local government hiring in recent months has pushed public-

sector employment up compared to two years ago

Private sector hiring up 4.8

million since July 2012

Public sector hiring up 11,000

workers since July 2012


8

BRIGHT SPOT

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Une

mpl

oym

ent (

%)

Bachelor's degree and higher High school graduates, no college

Although high school unemployment nudged up, both levels

remain below the national unemployment rate

3.1%

6.1%


9

BRIGHT SPOT

Goods-producing employment is rising and has seen monthly

gains consistently of more than 20,000 jobs throughout 2014

-1,000.0

-800.0

-600.0

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

1-m

onth

net

cha

nge

(tho

usan

ds)

Goods-producing Service-providing


10

BRIGHT SPOT

Total non-farm growth now at 1.9 percent; tech still leads by a

wide margin

-11.0

-9.0

-7.0

-5.0

-3.0

-1.0

1.0

3.0

5.0

7.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

High-tech Energy, Mining, and Utilities Office-using industries Total non-farm

Source: JLL Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through June 2014.

11

12-m

onth

% c

hang

e (jo

bs)

BRIGHT SPOT

Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing slowdown in

recent months, while energy picks up a bit in recent months

Year-on-year percent employment growth


12

BRIGHT SPOT

Initial unemployment insurance claims are now hovering around

the 300,000 mark each week

Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor

13

BRIGHT SPOT

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Cla

ims

Initial claims 4-week moving average

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

(%)

Con

sum

er c

onfid

ence

inde

x

Consumer confidence index

Unemployment rate

Consumer confidence breaks the 90-point threshold for the first

time since before the recession as indicators trend upward

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics

14

BRIGHT SPOT

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Une

mpl

oym

ent r

ate

Onl

ine

help

wan

ted

ads

Online help wanted ads

Unemployment rate

Online help wanted ads remain near record highs, but flat in

July as unemployment changes little

Source: JLL Research, Conference Board

15

BRIGHT SPOT

Year-on-year job growth of more than 3.0 percent is becoming

increasingly common in many metro areas


16

BRIGHT SPOT

Orlando

3.7%

Jacksonville

3.2%

Silicon Valley

3.4%

Austin

3.6%

Dallas

3.6%

Houston

3.1%

Portland

3.1%

Some East Coast and Midwestern markets are still posting

job growth below 1.0 percent year-on-year, however

17

CHALLENGE

New Jersey

0.2%


Detroit

0.3%

Chicago

0.7%

Hampton

Roads

0.3%

Kansas City

0.2%

Pittsburgh

0.9%

Washington,

DC

0.9%

The labor force participation is stuck at 62.9 percent, near the

record lows seen earlier this year


18

CHALLENGE

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Labo

r fo

rce

part

icip

atio

n ra

te (

%)

Total unemployment is stubbornly high at 12.2 percent, not

helped by July’s bump in unemployment to 6.2 percent

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Total unemployment U-6 10-year average


19

CHALLENGE

The slowdown in PBS growth has had a measurable impact

on the office-using sector, contributing a quarter of new jobs


20

CHALLENGE

Office-using growth has become increasingly unstable, with

year-on-year growth slowing to the 2.3-percent range

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Information Professional and business services Financial activities

PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.

In July 2014, it represented all 83.9 percent of new office jobs.


21

CHALLENGE

Labor force participation in both college and high school grads

is falling and has yet to flatline


22

CHALLENGE

54.0%

55.0%

56.0%

57.0%

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

70.0%

71.0%

72.0%

73.0%

74.0%

75.0%

76.0%

77.0%

78.0%

79.0%

80.0%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hig

h sc

hool

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Col

lege

gra

duat

e la

bor

forc

e pa

rtic

ipat

ion

rate

(%

)

Bachelor's degree High school, no college

Temporary help services nears 2.9 million jobs, although its

rate of growth is slowing somewhat

1,000.0

1,200.0

1,400.0

1,600.0

1,800.0

2,000.0

2,200.0

2,400.0

2,600.0

2,800.0

3,000.0

-100.0

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mon

thly

net

cha

nge

in jo

bs (

ths)

Temporary employment monthly net change Temporary employment

Temporary em

ployment (ths)


23

CHALLENGE

©2014 JLL Research IP, Inc. All rights reserved. All information contained herein is from sources deemed reliable; however, no representation or warranty is made to the accuracy thereof.

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Economy & Finance

U.S. employment rate data and trends July 2014