The good, the badand the ugly…

Tammy MarinoAssociate Economist

NYS Department of LaborDivision of Research & Statistics

(585) 258-8870Tammy.marino@labor.state.ny.us

www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/fin/index.shtm

March 18, 2009Finger Lakes Workforce Investment Board

Private Sector EmploymentUnited States

January 2008-January 2009

105,000

107,000

109,000

111,000

113,000

115,000

117,000

Jan2008

Feb2008

Mar2008

Apr2008

May2008

Jun2008

Jul2008

Aug2008

Sep2008

Oct2008

Nov2008

Dec2008

Jan2009

Jobs

Employment declined 3.7 million (-3.2%) over-the-year.

Private Sector EmploymentRochester MSA

January 2008-January 2009

400,000

405,000

410,000

415,000

420,000

425,000

430,000

435,000

440,000

445,000

450,000

Jan2008

Feb2008

Mar2008

Apr2008

May2008

Jun2008

Jul2008

Aug2008

Sep2008

Oct2008

Nov2008

Dec2008

Jan2009

Jobs

Employment down 1,400 (-0.3%) over-the-year.

Unemployment Rates(January of each year)

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Per

cen

t

Rochester MSANYSUSFLR

2009 8.0% 8.5% 8.6%2008 5.7% 5.4% 6.1%

Rochester MSA U.S. FLR

Unemployment Rates

Rochester MSA

US4-county

FLR

July 2009 8.2 9.7 7.3

July 2008 5.6 6.0 5.0

Private Sector EmploymentRochester MSA

(January of Each Year)

475,000

480,000

485,000

490,000

495,000

500,000

505,000

510,000

515,000

520,000

525,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Jobs

Employment down 16,500 (-3.7%) since its peak in 2001.

Two Trends Driving Change…Rochester MSA

1990-2008

405060708090

100110120130140

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Manufacturing Health Care

Locally manufacturing comprises:14% of employment and 22% of wages

(Nationally manufacturing accounts for 11% of employment)

Employment by Industry4-County Finger Lakes Region-2nd Quarter 2008

Leisure & Hospitality10%

Information1%

Trade, Transportation,

Utilities21%

Manufacturing16%

Construction5%

Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing

2%

Other Services3%

Government23%

Professional & Business Services

3%

Educational Servcices

2%

Health & Social Services

12%

Finance2%

Industries that Lost Jobs 4-County Region

2Q 2005 to 2Q 2008

Food & Beverage Stores

Machinery Manufacturing

Plastics & Rubber Manufacturing

Electronics Wholesale Agents/Brokers

Food & Beverage Manufacturing

Truck Transportation

Wood Product Manufacturing

Building Equip. & Garden Stores

Change

-300

-300

-200

-200

-200

-200

-100

-100

Wage

$340

$990

$720

$980

$670

$700

$570

$490

Industries that Gained Jobs 4-County Region

2Q 2005 to 2Q 2008

Nursing/Residential Care Fac.

Specialty Trade Contractors

Clothing & Accessories Stores

General Merchandise Stores

Food Services & Drinking Places

Educational Services

Internet Publishing & Broadcasting

Computer & Electronic Product Mfg.

Change

+1,400

+ 500

+ 400

+ 300

+ 300

+ 200

+ 200

+ 200

Wage

$650

$870

$260

$390

$240

$810

$1,400

$830

Trends in Today’s Economy

• More Women in the Workforce

• Baby Boomers are Retiring

• Aging Out of the Workforce

• Service Based Economy

• Global Trade

• Technology Advances

Spas, financial services, lawn services, landscapingHands on careers-hvac, nursing, spas, education, daycare, pet care

Fastest Growing OccupationsFinger Lakes Region

2006-2016

TitlePercentChange

Employment

Wages 2016

Computer Software Engineers, Applications 29.3 $81,700 3,620

Social & Human Service Assistants 24.4 $29,300 3,520

Home Health Aides 23.8 $25,300 7,480

Personal & Home Care Aides 22.5 $20,300 2,990

Computer Systems Analysts 21.0 $69,300 2,360

Customer Service Representatives 15.3 $30,500 9,100

Bill & Account Collectors 14.4 $29,300 2,220

Combined Food Prep & Serving Workers, Including Fast Food 13.6 $17,800 5,580

Preschool Teachers, Except Special Education 13.3 $25,900 2,050

Accountants & Auditors 13.0 $66,700 6,590

Fastest Growing Occupations continued…

Registered Nurses 12.5 $56,200 12,670

Child Care Workers 12.4 $21,000 7,690

Landscaping & Groundskeeping Workers 12.1 $25,100 4,720

Nursing Aides, Orderlies, & Attendants 11.6 $24,600 7,970

Security Guards 10.6 $26,000 3,970

Construction Laborers 10.5 $36,800 3,890

Food Preparation Workers 10.3 $19,000 7,200

Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education 10.0 $54,500 7,170

Janitors & Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping Cleaners

8.3 $23,400 11,300

Bookkeeping, Accounting, & Auditing Clerks 8.0 $32,700 9,760

Elementary School Teachers, Ex. Special Ed. 220Secondary School Teachers, Ex. Special & Vocational Ed. 210Accountants and Auditors 180Middle School Teachers, Ex. Special and Vocational Ed. 90Computer Systems Analysts 90

Occupations Requiring a Bachelor’s Degree,

Finger Lakes, 2006-2016

Fastest Growing Occupations % Growth

Network Systems & Data Communications Analysts 40.0%Physician Assistants 39.6%Personal Financial Advisors 32.7%Computer Software Engineers, Systems Software 31.9%Database Administrators 31.2%

Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year

Median Wage

$68,560 $72,010 $84,370 $81,330 $71,450

$63,170 $64,440 $60,560 $62,610 $71,530

Source: New York State Department of Labor

Registered Nurses 330Computer Support Specialists 100Paralegals and Legal Assistants 30Radiologic Technologists and Technicians 10Dental Hygienists/Assistants/Lab Technicians 60

Occupations Requiring an Associate Degree, Finger Lakes, 2006-

2016Fastest Growing Occupations % Growth

Medical Records and Health Info. Technicians 35.6%Physical Therapist Assistants 34.6%Dental Hygienists 29.9%Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 28.1%Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 27.6%

Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year

Median Wage

$32,520 $36,640 $59,090 $27,220 $42,650

$60,780 $47,940 $43,250 $50,570 $59,090

Source: New York State Department of Labor

Fastest Growing Occupations* % Growth

Fitness Trainers & Aerobics Instructors 30.8%Electricians 29.3%Heating, AC, & Refridge. Mechanics & Installers 26.2%EMTs and Paramedics 24.1%Plumbers, Pipefitters, & Steamfitters 23.5%

Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/YearNursing Aides, Orderlies & Technicians 140Licensed Practical Nurses 130Police and Sheriff's Patrol Officers 70Carpenters 130Electricians 60

Median Wage

$33,260 $52,530 $41,830 $34,440 $52,550

$46,670 $35,860 $53,690 $40,640 $52,530

Source: New York State Department of Labor

Occupations Requiring Either Postsecondary Training or Long-term OTJ Training,

Finger Lakes, 2006-2016

Occupations Requiring Moderate to Short-term OTJ Training,

Finger Lakes, 2006-2016

Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year

Customer Service Representative 340Child Care Workers 290Janitors and Cleaners 290General Office Clerks 250Teacher Assistants 230Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 210Farmworkers and Laborers 200Laborers and Freight Movers 200Home Health Aides 190Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 180

Median Wage

$29,300 $19,000 $21,500 $20,300 $32,000 $19,600 $22,300 $23,100 $20,700 $38,300

Source: New York State Department of Labor

Occupations Requiring Moderate to Short-term OTJ Training,

Finger Lakes, 2006-2016

Occupations with Most Annual Openings Openings/Year

Truck Drivers, Heavy and Tractor Trailer 120Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 110Security Guards 110Social and Human Service Assistants 100Correctional Officers and Jailers 80Construction Laborers 70

Median Wage

$35,300 $23,200 $24,000 $25,400 $54,000 $33,700

Source: New York State Department of Labor

When will the economy turn around?

Recession Proof Jobs

• Education– Teacher, Teacher Assistant, Instructor

• Health Care– Nurse, Pharmacist, Physician Assistant

• Energy– Alternative Energy (solar, wind, biofuel…)

• Environmental– Ecologists, Hydrologists, Environmental Chemists

• Security– Police Officer, Detective, Security Guard,

Homeland Security

Long Term Trends

• Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts • Computer Software Engineers, Applications• Home Health Aides• Personal and Home Care Aides• Medical Assistants• Dental Hygienists • Dental Assistants • Physical Therapist Assistants • Substance Abuse and Behavioral Disorder Counselors • Computer Systems Analysts• Physical Therapist Aides • Network and Computer Systems Administrators