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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Oregon and the Mid-Valley Economic and Housing Outlook
April 8th, 2016 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
Josh Lehner
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Economy
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• Willamette valley jobs gap
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• Long term outlook
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Housing Affordability
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• Home prices up up up
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• No bubble
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• Include Benton and Linn?
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OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
Housing Demand Drivers
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• Demographics and home ownership, linn-Benton, need do IPUMS work!!!
34 Years Old
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33 Years Old
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• Moar broader focus on region
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• Apt vs first time buyer demographics
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• Interest rates, fence sitters
16q44.2%
17q44.5%
18q45.5%
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
One Big Problem
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• Salem not building either
OFFICE OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
It’s 5 O‘ Clock Somewhere
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Outlook
• Mid-Valley economy is booming
• Population growth returning
• Affordability erodes as supply lags
• Pent-up demand to move
• Demographics favor rentals today and ownership over next decade plus
• Wild Cards: preferences and credit availability
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For More Information
Josh Lehner
(503) 378-4052
Social Media:
www.OregonEconomicAnalysis.com
@OR_EconAnalysis
