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8/10/2019 EBF Mid-Year Economic Outlook 2014
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8/10/2019 EBF Mid-Year Economic Outlook 2014
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CONTACT
Raymond Frenken
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SUB-EDITOR
Alison Bell
Editor
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DESIGN & LAYOUT
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Nov-13
Sep-13
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May-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Nov-12
Sep-12
Jul-12
May-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
Nov-11
Sep-11
Jul-11
May-11
Mar-11
Jan-11
Nov-10
Sep-10
Jul-10
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Sep-09
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Sep-08
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8/10/2019 EBF Mid-Year Economic Outlook 2014
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Mar-14
Feb-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Feb-12
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B C O, USD
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Focus box 1: Trends in the banking sector
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5. Inflation and monetary policy outlook
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EURO AREA HCPI, %
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Inflation
Monetary policy medium-term target
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ECB RATES, EONIA (SWAP RATES) & EURIBOR (FIXING)
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Focus box 2: Negative interest rates
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Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
Dec-13
Nov-13
Oct-13
Sep-13
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Mar-12
Jan-12
USD / EUR EXCHANGE RATE
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ANNEX 1:
MID-YEAR POLL ON THE EURO AREA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 2014
2011 2012 2013
Commission's
Forecasts
Full-year
2013
Mid-year
2013Spring 2014
(Ann.% change)
Gross domestic product (GDP) 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 1.1 0.9 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.4
Priva te consumption 0.3 -1.4 -0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.8
Public consumption -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.7
Gross fixed investment (GFCF) 1.6 -4.0 -3.1 2.4 1.4 3.4 1.5 1.3 2.3
Exports 6.5 2.5 1.3 3.9 3.1 4.6 4.2 4.7 4.0Imports 4.5 -0.9 -0.1 3.7 2.9 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.8
(Ann.% change)
Unemployment ra te (%) 1 0.1 11.3 12.0 11.9 11.7 12.2 12.1 12.4 11.8
Wages (Unit Labour Cost) 0.8 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 2.0 1.2 1.0 0.7
Prices (HCPI) 2.7 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.6 0.8
Core HCPI 1 .4 1.5 1.1 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.4
3. Public finances: (% GDP)
Government Balance -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.6 -3.0 -2.5 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5
Government Debt 8 8.2 92.8 95.1 95.9 94.3 97.3 96.6 95.7 96.0
4. External sector: (% GDP)
Trade Balance 0.3 1.4 1.4 2.2 1.5 3.1 1.7 1.8 2.4
Current Account Bala nce 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.4 1.6 3.0 2.2 1.6 2.9
(p.m.) US growth (Ann.% change) 1.8 2.8 1.9 2.7 2.5 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.8
(p.m.) Oil price (Brent, annual average) USD / b 111.0 111.8 108.7 106.8 102.0 110.0 105.6 106.7 107.6
5. Monetary and financial indicators:
June 1 .25 1.00 0.50 0.22 0.10 0.25 0.38 0.64
December 1 .00 0.75 0.25 0.19 0.10 0.25 0.41 0.73
3 month interest rate
(EURIBOR) (year-end) 1 .36 0.19 0.29 0.27 0.10 0.40 0.36 0.57
10 year government bond
yield (Bund) (year-end) 1 .83 1.32 1.90 1.94 1.50 2.20 2.39 2.24
M3 growth (annual growth) 1.5 3.0 2.3 2.5 1.5 4.0 2.90 4.00
Credit to private sector
(M3 definition) (annual growth) 2.1 -0.3 -1.6 -1.2 -2.5 1.5 0.80 1.23
Exchange rate USD/EUR (year-end) 1 .29 1.32 1.38 1.31 1.26 1.35 1.26 1.26 1.38
Interest rate on ECB's main
refinancing operations
1. Output and aggregate demand:
2. Labour market and prices:
Earlier CEG Outlooks
2014
range
2014
mean
TABLE 1 CEG Consensus 2014 2014
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ANNEX 2:
MID-YEAR POLL ON THE EURO AREA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR 2015
2011 2012 2013
Commission's
Forecasts
Spring 2014
(Ann.% change)
Gross domestic product (GDP) 1.6 -0.7 -0.4 1.5 1.1 1.7 1.6
Private consumption 0.3 -1.4 -0.7 1.1 0.8 1.4 1.3
Public consumption -0.1 -0.6 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.9 0.5Gross fixed investment (GFCF) 1.6 -4.0 -3.1 3.0 1.6 4.2 4.2
Exports 6.5 2.5 1.3 4.3 3.1 5.7 5.3
Imports 4.5 -0.9 -0.1 4.3 3.1 5.9 5.5
(Ann.% change)
Unemployment rate (%) 10.1 11.3 12.0 11.7 11.3 12.1 11.4
Wages (Unit Labour Cost) 0.8 1.9 1.2 1.2 0.2 2.4 0.8
Prices (HCPI) 2.7 2.5 1.4 1.4 1.0 2.0 1.2
Core HCPI 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.4
3. Public finances: (% GDP)
Government Balance -4.1 -3.7 -3.0 -2.3 -2.7 -1.8 -2.3
Government Debt 88.2 92.8 95.1 96.0 94.5 98.5 95.4
4. External sector: (% GDP)
Trade Balance 0.3 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.0 3.2 2.3
Current Account Bala nce 0.4 1.8 2.6 2.3 0.8 2.9 2.9
(p.m.) US growth (Ann.% change) 1.8 2.8 1.9 3.0 2.3 3.5 3.2
(p.m.) Oil price (Brent, annual average) USD / b 111.0 111.8 108.7 104.3 97.0 110.0 102.9
5. Monetary and financial indicators:
June 1.25 1.00 0.50 0.21 0.10 0.50
December 1.00 0.75 0.25 0.33 0.10 0.75
3 month interest rate
(EURIBOR) (year-end) 1.36 0.19 0.29 0.47 0.10 1.40
10 year government bond
yield (Bund) (year-end) 1.83 1.32 1.90 2.44 1.80 3.15
M3 growth (annual growth) 1.5 3.0 2.3 3.6 2.0 6.0
Credit to private sector
(M3 defini tion) (annual growth) 2.1 -0.3 -1.6 1.0 -1.0 3.0
Exchange rate USD/EUR (year-end) 1.29 1.32 1.38 1.29 1.22 1.35 1.38
Interest rate on ECB's main
refinancing operations
2. Labour market and prices:
1. Output and aggregate demand:
TABLE 2 CEG Consensus 2015 2015
2015
range
2015
mean
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EBF Economic Outlook Nr 37