Energy [r]evolution, Carbon Transition

December 2016Paris Clean Energy Seminar

Global energy consumed will have tripled in 60 years

3.7 Mds hab5.0 Mds tep

6.0 Mds hab9.2 Mds tep

8.2 Mds hab15.3 Mds tep

+11% +27%

19701.35 tep/hab

20001.5 tep/hab

20301.9 tep/hab

Source : AIE / BP Stat ReviewPage 3

In 100 years, CO2 emissions have increased 2.8 times

1.33 CO2 MT/Capita100 years

Source : Max Roser, Oxford University, World Data

0.47 CO2 MT/Capita

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CO2 is not the only GHG responsible for global warming

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) :• 72% carbon dioxide, the better known of all GHG

• 18% methane, 84 x more potent than carbon dioxide

• 8% nitrous oxide, known as laughing gas, 298 x more potent than carbon dioxide

• 1% others especially fluorinated gases (i.e. halocarbons from industrial origin)

Source : Robert A. Rohde, Wikipedia

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) :• 72% carbon dioxide, the better known of all GHG

• 18% methane, 84 x more potent than carbon dioxide

• 8% nitrous oxide, known as laughing gas, 298 x more potent than carbon dioxide

• 1% others especially fluorinated gases (i.e. halocarbons from industrial origin)

Carbon Dioxide Methane Nitrous Oxide

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On a day-to-day basis our energy mix is based on carbo-hydrate worldwide, France is an exception (nuclear)

Energy Mix Worldwide2014

Energy Consumption Worldwide2014

Source: BP 2015 Energy Data, Eurostat

Fossil energy represents 86% of the energy mix T I H represents about 84% of the world consumption

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In terms of total emissions, China is leading the pack

Comments :• China is leading the pack in terms of

global emissions and the country is stillemerging

• Fast moving countries such as India orAfrica have not reached their fulleconomic potential yet

• In terms of leading emission / capita,carbohydrate rich countries are leadingthe pack : Qatar (39.1), Kuwait (28.3),UAE (21.3)

• Then Australia (17.3) and the USA(16.5) are the largest contributor /capita

• Taiwan (11.8) still has a margin forimprovement, e.g. France (5.0) …

Source : EU Edgar Database

Comments :• China is leading the pack in terms of

global emissions and the country is stillemerging

• Fast moving countries such as India orAfrica have not reached their fulleconomic potential yet

• In terms of leading emission / capita,carbohydrate rich countries are leadingthe pack : Qatar (39.1), Kuwait (28.3),UAE (21.3)

• Then Australia (17.3) and the USA(16.5) are the largest contributor /capita

• Taiwan (11.8) still has a margin forimprovement, e.g. France (5.0) …

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Plastic was invented only in 1909, the downside is 5 trillionplastic particles 0.33-1.00 mm in the world seas and oceans

Comments :• Plastic trash is a direct by-product of

the hydrocarbon economy

• Plastic soup decay is a hazard for bothhuman health and bio-diversity

• Plastic bags : avg use of 30mn, 20years to decay, emission of pollutants

• Many of the plastic waste ends up inthe ocean : cigarette buds, foodwrappers, beverage bottles, bags, lids

• In only 100 years, plastic waste havecontaminated the full food chain (fish,birds, marine mamals)

Plastic Demand in EU2014

Comments :• Plastic trash is a direct by-product of

the hydrocarbon economy

• Plastic soup decay is a hazard for bothhuman health and bio-diversity

• Plastic bags : avg use of 30mn, 20years to decay, emission of pollutants

• Many of the plastic waste ends up inthe ocean : cigarette buds, foodwrappers, beverage bottles, bags, lids

• In only 100 years, plastic waste havecontaminated the full food chain (fish,birds, marine mamals)

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Source: PlasticsEurope

46.3MioT

The decarbonization rate of the world economy points to theright direction but there is still a long way to go (diamond)

Source: IEA, BP, IMF, World Bank, PwC

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Keeping with the 2°C global carbon budget requires cuttingcarbon intensity by 6.3% every year to 2100

1.3%Businessas usual

Source: IEA, BP, IMF, World Bank, PwC

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3%a year

6.3%a year

A specific « extraordinary » effort must be done to meet thedecarbonization target but we have proven to be able to do it

Source: IEA, BP, IMF, World Bank, PwC

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The transition to the low carbon economy represents anattractive market larger than € 1 Trillion worldwide

Conclusions :• The end of the carbon economy is the

beginning of a new world

• Nuclear can help filling in the gap butnot a long term suitable alternative

• CleanTech have sufficient reach toprovide necessary energy for all

• By 2050, the EU have pledged to cutGHG by 80% compared to 1990s levels

• The cost of the switch to clean tech is >€ 1 Tn for the next 4 decade (€ 270 Bnfor Europe only)

Conclusions :• The end of the carbon economy is the

beginning of a new world

• Nuclear can help filling in the gap butnot a long term suitable alternative

• CleanTech have sufficient reach toprovide necessary energy for all

• By 2050, the EU have pledged to cutGHG by 80% compared to 1990s levels

• The cost of the switch to clean tech is >€ 1 Tn for the next 4 decade (€ 270 Bnfor Europe only)

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Source: EU, 2050 low-carbon economy

Solar still represents a small part of our energy sourcing butin 40 years, the solar watt price was divided by 226 x

Source: Bloomberg, Earth Policy Institute

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Greentech innovation and regulations will continue to be akey driver to curb carbon dioxide emissions worldwide

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• Encourage and finance cleantech innovation• Support transition regulation to ease the energy turnaround• Foster individual responsibility to protect our ecosystem

Leading a world of change, together